Will the German basketball fairytale continue in Manila?

Let’s go in Manila. The 2023 World Basketball Championship is entering its decisive phase and the best part is that the German selection is still in the game. On Wednesday, Gordon Herbert’s team has the chance to reach a World Cup semifinal for the first time since 2002 and the second time ever. Whether this mission will be crowned with success, we examine in our Germany vs. Latvia tip.

Besides last year’s European Championship semifinal, this match is probably the most important of the last 20 years for the DBB giants. The Latvians were European champions once in 1935, but aside from that, it’s the biggest game the Baltics have played in 88 years. So this quarterfinal has quite historical significance, especially for Latvia, which is participating in a World Championship for the first time ever and performs so strongly right away.

The winner of this match has a very good chance of participating in the Olympic Games in Paris. In the duel between Lithuania and Serbia, a European team will also qualify for the semifinals. If the USA and Canada win their semifinals, the two winners of the intra-European duels will already have enough for a ticket to the City of Love. The German selection would then have already achieved the one big goal and could turn its focus carefree on the fight for the medals.

The betting provider Bet3000 sees the German selection in this quarterfinal clearly in advantage. However, caution is definitely called for, as the Latvians have already surpassed themselves several times at this World Cup. Nevertheless, we would share the bookmakers’ assessment and make a prediction on a success of the German selection in the duel between Germany and Latvia.

Germany – statistics & current form

It was already clear in the numerous preparatory games that the German team has made another big step in its development and should be better than a year ago, when they won the bronze medal at the home European Championship. In the current condition, Gordon Herbert’s team must now be trusted with everything in the Philippines, even winning the gold medal for the first time cannot be ruled out.

Make-less World Cup record

This is also due to the fact that Germany is the only team besides Lithuania that is still undefeated in this World Cup and has a record of 5-0 wins. Most recently, they scored more than 100 points three times in a row. The balance between defense and offense is right and if the baskets continue to fall like this in the quarterfinals, keep an eye on the odds of more than 169.5 points between Germany and Latvia.

Gordon Herbert’s team doesn’t have to hide from superstars either. Against Australia, for example, they had Patty Mills very well under control and also recently against Slovenia they didn’t give Luka Doncic very much free space. A big plus is that there is no loss of quality in the German team when players come off the bench, on the contrary. It was often the players like Maodo Lo, Johannes Thiemann or Moritz Wagner who made their mark on the games.

Dennis Schröder, who has recovered from a back injury and who settled the dispute with Coach Herbert during the Slovenia game, will definitely be on the board. For Franz Wagner, it is likely to be a race against time. The NBA legionnaire from the Orlando Magic has still not fully trained after his injury from the Japan game. Whether it will be enough until the game, will probably only show in the short term.

Predicted lineup of Germany:
Bonga, Lo, Giffey, Voigtmann, F. Wagner, Theis, M. Wagner, Schröder, Hollatz, Thiemann, Obst, Krämer – Coach: Herbert

Latvia – Statistics & current form

Latvia already hinted in the World Cup qualifiers that they could be a force to be reckoned with at the World Cup itself. Italian coach Luca Banchi’s team finished first in their group of six, ahead of Serbia and Greece. That alone was a huge success. However, it was by no means foreseeable that they would cause such a sensation at their first World Cup.

Wins against France and Spain

From the bottom two preliminary groups G and H, Canada, Spain and France will settle the two possible slots for the quarterfinals among themselves, or so it was said. The French already had to drop out after the first group stage after a loss to the Latvians, and the still reigning world champions from Spain didn’t fare any differently in the main round. The Spaniards also went home after a defeat against Latvia

So the Baltic team earned a real final on the last match day. Against Brazil it was basically already a kind of round of 16. The winner advances and the loser is eliminated. The Latvians were there on the dot and in the 104:84 victory there was at one stage of the game even the slightest doubt that Latvia will win this game and continue writing their own summer fairy tale. However, we think that this will come to an end on Wednesday and give a prediction on a German victory between Germany and Latvia.

There are many outstanding players missing from this World Cup. While it was only partly noticeable with the Americans, who are missing a number of top stars, it was more obvious with Serbia’s Nikola Jokic and Greece’s Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Latvians, however, also have to do without their top star in Kristaps Prozingis of the Boston Celtics, but that hasn’t stopped the Latvian team from performing brilliantly in their 4-1 wins so far.

Predicted lineup of Latvia:
R. Kurucs, Davis Bertans, Dairis Bertans, Smits, Strautins, Cavars, Skele, Grazulis, Pasecniks, A. Kurucs, Zagars, Zoriks – Coach: Banchi

Germany – Latvia Direct comparison / H2H-balance

Till today there have been 13 duels between basketball teams from Germany and Latvia. In the direct comparison it is 9:4 for the German selection after victories. Two defeats were in the distant past, when Latvia was one of the best teams in Europe, before the Second World War. Most recently, however, the DBB giants have won three times in a row against the Baltics.

However, it must be said that there were no high victories for the German team. In the last three games, the Germans won twice just by one point and once by five points. If you add to that the good performances of the Latvians at the World Cup, we would rather advise against betting on a too high handicap on Wednesday.

Germany – Latvia Tip

You have to take your hat off to how strong the Latvians are coming off this World Cup. No one would have expected them to knock out Olympic silver medalists France and world and European champions Spain. So Gordon Herbert will certainly have been warned. But all the teams will be in top form by the quarterfinals at the latest.

We can only bow our heads deeply to the German team. Against all odds, Gordon Herbert’s team is on its way to establishing itself among the world’s best.

If Germany manages to break the 100-point mark for the fourth game in a row, there should be plenty of points on the scoreboard again. We think a bet on more than 169.5 points could already fit. Because we are also convinced of the outcome of the match, we decided to play the betting odds on a German victory and a total of more than 168.5 points between Germany and Latvia.