Next surprise for the Squadra Azzura?

There were a few surprises at this EURO Basket 2022, but the big sensations were missing, maybe with one exception. The highly touted Serbians were eliminated by the Italian Squadra Azzura in the round of 16. That was not necessarily to be expected. Now, however, the Italians are still in the game and will now face Olympic silver medallists France in the quarter-finals.

Once again, the Italians are the underdogs in this encounter, but if Gianmarco Pozzecco’s side manage to go above and beyond once again, then another surprise could be within the realms of possibility. What is also clear, however, is that you can’t go over the limit in every game and so it will be hard for Italy to reach a major semi-final for the first time since the 2004 World Cup.

The French have much more to show in terms of semi-finals and medals. At the Tokyo Olympics, the Equipe Tricolore won silver. They have also won bronze at each of the last two World Championships and medals at three of the last four European Championships, including gold in 2013.

Both teams have conceded two defeats in this European Championship. From this we can deduce that the form is okay, but also that not everything always fits. Therefore, we can imagine that there will be no easy victory on Wednesday for either team. It might therefore suit to place a tip on an Italian handicap win (+5.5 points) between France and Italy.

France – Statistics & current form

The road to this quarter-final was extremely rocky for the French. The group stage was really tough, with extremely difficult games against Bosnia, Germany, Lithuania and European champions Slovenia. The Equipe Tricolore had big problems and had to settle for third place after winning 3:2. This meant that a tough opponent would have to be cleared out of the way in the round of 16.

Matchwinner Rudy Gobert

The Turks were waiting in the first play-off match in Berlin, and for a long time it looked as if the French would march confidently into the next round. Midway through the second quarter, Vincent Collet’s team led by 16 points. Immediately after half-time, however, the Turks had taken the lead after an intermediate spurt. At the end of regulation time, the score was 77-77.

In overtime, however, the French had the better nerves and won by a razor-thin margin of 87:86. It was a game of nerves that Vincent Collet would like to spare himself on Wednesday. But they must not allow themselves a weak phase against the Italians, because the Azzuri are just as capable as the Turks of capitalising on it.

Rudy Gobert will be particularly important against the Italians. With 27 points and an incredible 20 rebounds, he was the man of the match in the last 16. Only if the centre of the Minnesota Timberwolves manages to confirm this form in the quarter-finals, it makes sense to play the odds on a French victory between France and Italy.

Predicted line-up of France:
Okobo, M’Baye, Luwawu-Cabarrot, Heurtel, Yabusele, Fournier, Maledon, Poirier, Albicy, Tarpey, Gobert, Fall – Coach: Collet

Italy – Statistics & current form

The Italians have almost no legionnaires in their ranks. Simone Fontecchio is under contract with the Utah Jazz in the NBA and Achille Polonara plays for Anadolu Efes in Turkey. All the other members of the Squadra Azzura earn their money at home. But that can also be an advantage, because coach Gianmarco Pozzecco relies above all on block formation.

With block formation to success

Two players come from Reyer Venezia and two from Vitus Bologna. Six players alone are under contract with Olimpia Milano, currently one of the best clubs in Europe. The main focus is on forward Simone Fontecchio, who has emerged as the Italian team’s best scorer throughout the European Championship.

Overall, however, the Italians are characterised by the fact that they have a very balanced squad. This became increasingly clear in the round of 16 against the Serbians. Serbia was ahead by ten points in the middle of the third quarter, but then could hardly get a ball into the basket. It was the hour of the Italian long-range shooters around Marco Spissu. If there is one thing the Squadra Azzura knows, it is 3-point shots.

Gianmarco Pozzecco’s team took the lead in the last quarter and did not let themselves get rattled even by a world star like Nikola Jokic. In the end, the Italians rejoiced, having reached the quarter-finals of a European Championship for the fourth time in a row. Of course, the last three editions were always over there.

Predicted line-up of Italy:
Spissu, Mannion, Biligha, Tonut, Melli, Fontecchio, Tessitori, Ricci, Baldasso, Polonara, Pajola, Datome – Coach: Pozzecco

France – Italy Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

The French have admittedly celebrated the greater successes in recent years, but over many years and almost decades France and Italy have generally met on equal terms. The two national teams have played 25 international matches against each other to date. In the direct comparison, the Equipe Tricolore is only just ahead with 14:11 victories.

The last really interesting duel between these two nations was in the quarter-finals of the Tokyo Olympics, when the French won 84-75. Most recently, there were two test matches immediately before the European Championships, when France won once after extra time and once with 100:68. This means the French are unbeaten in eleven international matches against the Italians since 2007. This underlines the odds on France vs. Italy at tip 1.

France – Italy bet

The Italians have managed to bowl out one of the big favourites in Serbia. Whoever manages that will not be without a chance against France either. However, the direct comparison is no encouragement for the Squadra Azzura, who have lost eleven times in a row against the Equipe Tricolore, most recently in August with a 32-point deficit.

France haven’t played a great role in this tournament so far either, losing to Germany and Slovenia and only just getting their heads out of the noose against the Turks in the round of 16.

But we expect a close match. The European Championship has shown that the level at the top is very balanced and that we can expect exciting duels in the quarter-finals. We wouldn’t even rule out that the Italians will prevail. In any case, it should be close and therefore we play the betting odds on a handicap win (+5.5) for the Azzuri in the match between France and Italy.