Are the Finns getting closer to their dream of a home title?

On Saturday, it’s top favourite versus top underdog when the Finns host the US in their home arena in Tampere. The betting odds make this a clear-cut affair, but is it really the case?

That depends on the performance of the US boys, who have been a big unknown at this tournament so far. One of the reasons for this is, of course, their inexperience. Unlike other teams, they have given a lot of young, not yet very successful talents a place in the squad to gain experience.

However, these youngsters have been more than convincing so far, and thus also clearly knocked the Group A winners from Switzerland out of the World Cup with 3:0. However, they were not superior in this match with 22:33 shots on goal, but rather very efficient.

We doubt that they will be able to score with such accuracy again and that Jeremy Swayman will be able to keep his box clean once more, which is why we predict a narrow victory for the home team in Finland vs. USA.

Finland – Statistics & current form

Finland are well on their way to reaching a third consecutive World Cup final. In front of their home fans, this would also be something very special. In any case, they are already considered the top favourites by the betting companies.

One of the reasons for this is their superb defence, which has only conceded seven goals in the entire tournament. Two of them, however, just now in the quarter-finals, when they had to make up a 0:2 against Slovakia.

First duel with USA won

These two teams have already met once in the preliminary round, and on that occasion the Finns prevailed 4:1. However, that was directly on the third day of play, at a time when the US team was anything but rehearsed.

On Saturday, Finland should expect a little more resistance, especially since the Americans have two absolute top scorers in Galchenyuk and Meyers, who need few chances to score. In this respect, we also expect more than just one goal from Team USA.

Will it be a low scoring game?

When we look at the two defenses of the teams, there is of course a lot to be said for a low scoring game. However, this World Cup has shown that it is precisely these games in which more goals are scored. As soon as a team scores, the defensive motto has to be abandoned and the goals are often open.

This was also the case in the Finns’ 4:2 quarter-final victory over Slovakia. So the odds on over 4.5 goals are definitely playable for Finland vs USA. The bookmakers are setting the odds so low that at least five goals should be scored in these high-calibre forward lines.

This was already the case in the preliminary round with 4:1. With Sakari Manninen and Toni Rajala, the Finns also have two strikers in the team who have already scored four goals. And the class of Michael Granlund and Valtteri Filppula is undisputed anyway.

Key Players:
G: Harri Säteri
D: Miro Heiskanen
D: Esa Lindell
LW: Valtteri Filppula
C: Mikael Granlund
RW: Joel Armia

USA – Statistics & current form

The US boys are still a little underestimated. The odds of the betting companies prove that once again. If we were able to get great odds with bets on them in the quarter-finals, this would also be possible in this duel with the Finns.

We wouldn’t recommend it alone against the strong Finns, because on a good day they can really turn up the heat, as was evident in their 4:1 win in the preliminary round. Still, the Americans should be able to give them a much tougher duel on Saturday, which makes betting on Team USA +1.5 an option.

Youngsters with increased discipline

Despite their slight inferiority against Switzerland, they only conceded a full four penalty minutes, which was part of the reason they prevailed in the end. The DEB team had to learn in their quarter-final how negative penalty minutes can be.

Since the Finns also have a strong overtime game, Team USA will have to use this discipline again on Saturday. Further proof of this was the 30 penalty minutes they collected against the Finns in the preliminary round. In the end, a victory was out of the question.

This hot duel in the preliminary round is another reason why we expect the US boys to be stronger. They won’t let themselves be provoked like that again, especially Austin Watson, who was sent off the ice in the preliminary round with 5 + game time.

Penalty Killing as Key Factor

If they still collect a penalty or two, which will happen against these Finns, they will have to build on their penalty killing from the Switzerland game. They didn’t concede a goal there. In the preliminary round against Finland, they conceded a whopping three goals shorthanded.

However, as we expect the Americans to be a little more disciplined, a blowout victory for the Finns is unlikely. So a bet on USA +1.5 is a possibility for Finland vs. USA, as well as Over 4.5 total goals, as we believe the US boys will score at least two goals.

Key Players:
G: Jeremy Swayman
D: Steh Jones
D: Caleb Jones
LW: Alex Galchenyuk
C: Sam Lafferty
RW: Ryan Hartman

Finland – USA Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

We have already mentioned the 4:1 from the preliminary round and also in the duels before that the Scandinavians mostly had the upper hand (Four wins from the last five duels). However, there has only been one blowout victory (a 6:2 in 2018).

For Saturday, we expect a narrow victory for the Finns. Whether this will come after regulation time or extra time is uncertain. Therefore, win bets on them should also be viewed with caution.

Instead, the odds on over 4.5 total goals for Finland against USA are exciting. Rarely has there been such good value on such a low total number of goals. This World Cup is the first time this has been the case and to not take advantage of it, the forward lines of both teams are just too strong for us.

Finland – USA Tip

The Finns are the big favourites, but already in the quarter-finals we thought the US boys would be better than the betting companies and were rewarded for that. However, we would be cautious with bets on Team USA at this point. The Finns appear too strong in the course of the tournament.

Therefore, our No. 1 bet for Finland vs. USA is on over 4.5 goals. As soon as there is a goal in the first period, the other team has to come and then the result can easily skyrocket. With these odds, this option is very value-packed in any case.

As an alternative bet, however, a tip on Team USA +1.5 is also a recommendation. That the Finns will again dominate them as they did in the preliminary round is not to be assumed for Saturday.