Will the Finns win their home final?
It’s World Cup Final time for Finland against Canada. This is the third time in a row that these two teams have contested the final of a World Cup of Hockey, with each nation having been successful once each. The defending champions are the Canadians.
This pairing is the logical consequence of this World Championship, as the Finns have by far the best defence with only ten goals against and the Canadians have by far the best offence with 44 goals. So it will also be a duel of systems on Sunday.
Low scoring game or high scoring game is therefore another question coming up. Since we see the Canadians as the slight favourites after their gala against the Czech Republic, their offensive power could also prevail in the end, although the 5.5 total goals should still not be exceeded (World Cup final tradition).
In any case, our prediction for Finland vs. Canada is a high-class game, in which we also believe the Canadians to be a bit more capable due to their two positive experiences in the quarter- and semi-finals – despite the Finnish home advantage.
Finland – Statistics & current form
“Finale Dahoam” is the name of the game for the Finns, who could thus reach a final on home soil for the first time in their history. The last team to do so was Sweden in 2013, who also won the final against Switzerland.
While the home advantage is there, the fact that no home team could win the title for 24 years in a row before the Swedish triumph and not since is more of a counter-argument against this advantage.
Are the Finns feeling the pressure?
So the home advantage in the final could also have a negative effect on the Finnish team, which is young in parts. An entire country is looking at the team and now expects the title. The Canadians, who are even considered underdogs by the betting companies, have it a little easier.
Much will depend on whether the Finnish team manages to implement its defensive system. In the two knockout round matches against Slovakia and the USA, they only partially succeeded in doing so, conceding as many goals in both games as they did in the entire preliminary round.
Defence wins games – and what about offence?
With only ten goals conceded so far, the Finns’ defence is still the measure of all things at this World Cup. In comparison, the Canadians have already conceded 22 goals. And with that, the nice saying could come to fruition: Defence wins Games – Offense wins Championships.
If it weren’t for the Canadians on the other side. They have already scored 44 goals, eleven more than Finland (33). The superiority that the Finns have defensively, Canada has offensively. So it’s going to be a completely open game.
Why do we still see Canada slightly ahead? Because they always need a little more time to get used to tournaments and turn up the heat towards the end. Therefore, a bet on the North Americans is our clear recommendation for Finland against Canada, also due to the good odds.
Key Players:
G: Harri Säteri
D: Miro Heiskanen
D: Esa Lindell
LW: Valtteri Filppula
C: Mikael Granlund
RW: Joel Armia
Canada – Statistics & current form
Just 6:1 defeated the Czechs in the semifinals and yet they are still underdogs in the final? That can only happen against the home team from Finland. And yet we think this assessment by the bookmakers is very questionable.
It is well known that North American teams get stronger and stronger in the course of a tournament. That’s what happened two years ago, when the Canadians also beat the Finns 3:2 in the final.
Offense of the Canadians outstanding
Dubois seven goals, Cozens six goals, Johnson and Lowry four goals each, Batherson and Dillinger three goals each. That speaks for a breadth in attack that no other team can boast. And the best thing about it is that the players are spread across all the forward lines, making them virtually unpredictable.
In the semi-final, for example, the Czechs were able to keep top scorer Dubois to zero goals – and yet they still lost 1:6. That should also be a warning to the Finns, who will therefore tend to rely on a strong defence at the start of the match.
Canada can also defend
But that doesn’t mean the Canadians are at a disadvantage in a low-scoring game. Their goalie Driedger has conceded more goals than Säteri on the Finnish side, but we still see him as the more stable goalie, which he proved in numerous 1-on-1 situations against the Czechs.
In this respect, Team Canada currently has no weak point and one strength that stands out enormously. Being able to play without pressure in a foreign arena should also help, which is why we consider the odds on Canada to be much more playable.
Key Players:
G: Chris Driedger
D: Ryan Graves
D: Nick Holden
LW: Pierre-Luc Dubois
C: Mathew Barzal
RW: Drake Batherson
Finland – Canada Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
So the World Cup final is once again Finland vs Canada, as it was in 2019 and 2021. In those finals the score is 1-1 and in the other duels the record is also reasonably even (6:4 in favour of Finland in the last 10 games).
For Sunday, we therefore see the form of the day as decisive and whether the Finns can turn the pressure of their compatriots into positive energy. However, we see the advantage with the Canadians, who this 6:1 in the semi-final against the Czechs should have catapulted them on another wave of euphoria.
They just want to score, score and score – but can also defend. For Finland vs. Canada, betting on the away team is therefore to be favoured, especially as there are odds of up to 2.75 on Canada. Rarely have the odds on a Canadian team been higher than this.
Finland – Canada Tip
The Canadians are considered underdogs. What is already surprising enough can only be surpassed by the terrific odds on them. Even if it ends up being a 50:50 duel, bets on the North Americans are thus to be favoured.
For Finland vs. Canada, a bet on Canada is our No. 1 betting option. In the final, we can also expect Pierre-Luc Dubois to score again, who went empty-handed in the semi-final despite Canada scoring six goals.
As far as the total number of goals is concerned, betting is more difficult. Games involving Canada are often high-scoring, but they can also play defence. Since World Cup finals traditionally offer rather few goals (2, 3, 5, 4, 5 in the last five finals), we are also going with Under 5.5 total goals for Sunday.
