Can the Oilers come back once more?
A shutout that came out of nowhere. After 14 goals in Game 1 and two offenses that seemed on fire, Avs backup goaltender Pavel Francouz of all people pitched a shutout in Game 2. That came as a surprise.
But it shows the incredible depth in the squad of the top favourite for the Stanley Cup and if the Oilers are not careful, the series will be over sooner than it started. So Game 3 is almost a do-or-die game for them. Only four teams in long NHL history have ever come back from 0-3.
But how can they do that? When even their top scorers, McDavid and Draisaitl, are getting a problem, it’s going to be tough. But since we expect a few more Oilers goals on Saturday, it’s all up to their defence.
If they allow four or more goals again, then it will probably be 0:3 after Game 3. As much as many would like to see an exciting series, our prediction for Edmonton vs. Colorado is that it will go into the fourth game with exactly this 0:3 score.
Edmonton Oilers – Statistics & current form
First conceding eight goals in Game 1, then zero goals of their own in Game 2. The Oilers are currently swinging from extreme to extreme, but none of it is having a positive impact on their play. On the contrary, there are hardly any realistic chances left for Edmonton to win this series.
Only 12.7% of all teams have managed to turn a 0-2 deficit into a series win in the NHL playoffs. That’s not exactly a lot. But giving up is not in the cards for the Oilers, such a comeback would at least secure them a place in the history books.
Following the defence, now the offence is struggling
It was already known that the Oilers defence had its problems in these playoffs (3.50 goals against per game, 12th out of 16 playoff teams). But the fact that they can’t even score a single goal up front is new.
Not quite, though, as they also conceded 4-0 against the Kings in Round 1, also away from home. Back then they fought back reasonably well, even if the following game was also lost 4:5 after overtime.
But how will the Oilers react to this offensive struggle on Saturday? Among other things, it was noticeable that top players like McDavid (2 shots on goal) or Nugent-Hopkins (0 shots on goal) were almost nowhere to be seen. That has to change in Game 3.
At least four goals needed
With the Edmonton defence and goalie Mike Smith not expected to make a huge jump in performance for the rest of the series, they will need at least four goals of their own to have any chance of winning. Those are possible, but not likely for every game.
For Game 2 on Saturday, we only expect it to a limited extent. Therefore, for Oilers vs Avalanche, the odds on Colorado are still more playable for us. Especially since they’re still quite high at up to 2.27 for such a dominant team.
Key Players:
G: Mike Smith
D: Darnell Nurse
D: Cody Ceci
LW: Evander Kane
C: Connor McDavid
RW: Leon Draisaitl
Colorado Avalanche – Statistics & current form
This was the Avs’ next announcement after Game 1 – this time from their defence and goalie Pavel Francouz. He had to take over the starting job after Kuemper’s injury and did it not only well, but outstandingly.
Considering that it was only the seventh play-off start of his career, he did his job quite well. However, it also has to be said that the Avs have arguably the best pairing of defensemen in the entire league on the ice in Cale Makar and Devon Toews.
Defence of the Avs worlds better than that of the Oilers
When Josh Manson starts scoring goals, too, this Avs defense is simply out of Edmonton’s league (and maybe every other team’s). By comparison, the Oilers don’t have a single comparable defenseman on their roster.
Their Darnell Nurse, who is often portrayed as their No. 1 defenseman, is making mistake after mistake. In general, the Avs also seem to be mentally a cut above the Canadians. The “too many men” penalty also proves this.
Betting on Avs pays off
Still, the Avalanche are considered only the slight favourites for Saturday, due of course to the Canadiens’ home-ice advantage. But in Colorado’s current form, even that home ice advantage is just a drop in the bucket. The Avs are a whole lot stronger than Calgary.
So for Oilers vs. Avs, a bet on the away team from Colorado is our clear betting recommendation. We also expect a few more goals than on Thursday, although we would be a little more cautious with bets here. Especially since the Avs defence was so convincing in Game 3.
Key Players:
G: Pavel Francouz
D: Devon Toews
D: Cale Makar
LW: Valeri Nichuskin
C: Nathan MacKinnon
RW: Mikko Rantanen
Edmonton Oilers – Colorado Avalanche Direct Comparison / H2H-Balance
2-0 – that’s probably the only statistic that matters in this head-to-head matchup. And the numbers for these two games, in which the Avs have managed a total of 21 more shots on goal than Edmonton (79:58).
We don’t expect that to change fundamentally now. The only chance the Oilers have is if the Avs also have a night where they can’t convert their chances. After all, that happens a lot in the NHL.
We shouldn’t bet on that, though. Therefore, when it comes to Edmonton vs. Colorado, the odds on the Avalanche are to be taken advantage of in any case. Even a handicap of -1.5 can still be considered.
Edmonton Oilers – Colorado Avalanche Tip
Not only do the Avs lead the series 2-0, but they are also ahead in pretty much every major statistic. In goals scored (4.58 to 4.14 per game), goals against (2.75 to 3.50) or even on the power play (31.6% to 27.9%) and face-offs (48.8% to 48.2%).
Only in penalty killing do the Oilers lead. Overall, however, this should not be enough for Edmonton to even the series here, which is why a bet on the Avs is our clear favourite betting option for Edmonton against Colorado.
Alternatively, however, over-points are once again an option. Even though these were surprisingly not achieved in Game 2, we expect a more typical game for Game 3 again and Over 6.5 total goals.
