Will the Lions pull off a surprise on Thanksgiving?
Power vs. power of the future is the name of the game on Thursday when the Buffalo Bills take on the Detroit Lions in the first Thanksgiving Game of the year. The Bills are also back on track after their success against Cleveland. The Lions, however, also come into this game hot off three straight wins.
Curiously, the Bills will play their second game in a row in Detroit. Already their home game against the Browns had to be moved to the Motor City due to weather (2 metres of snow). So they could stay in Detroit right away and won’t have any major travel problems.
But the Bills are favourites regardless of the stadium and even though the Lions are on the upswing right now. However, with the Bills being 9-point favourites with the bookies, betting on them is not that easy. There should be plenty of points on both sides though.
For Lions vs. Bills, our prediction is a high scoring game, but one that should go to the Buffalo favourites in the end. As is so common in Lions games, it could rain points especially in the last quarter if they play all or nothing (as always when trailing).
Kickoff of the first Thanksgiving Game of 2022 is Thursday at 6:30pm in Detroit. The game can be followed live on ProSieben, ran.de and on DAZN.
Detroit Lions – Statistics & current form
Three wins in a row – they haven’t known that in Detroit since 2017. Is this a new playoff team in the making? We’d say no for this year, but the future is definitely theirs with all the young talent, including Amon-Ra St.Brown.
He caught seven balls for 76 yards again on Sunday – but he’s been waiting for a touchdown since Game Day 2. Maybe he’ll find the end zone on Thanksgiving Thursday. With a high-scoring game to be expected, a tip on that is not out of the question.
Will their defence be overrun?
It was already clear at the beginning of the season that the Lions have a lot to offer offensively, when they even had the best offence in the league after four days of play. There is a reason why it was not enough for many wins for a long time: their defence.
With 28.2 points allowed per game, their defence still ranks last in the NFL. They are also the only team to allow an average of over 400 yards (415.9). Against an offense led by Josh Allen or Stefon Diggs, that could end badly on Thursday.
We expect Detroit to allow at or above 30 points again, giving them little chance of a fourth straight win. They would only have that if they manage to hold the Bills to under 25 points.
Jamaal Williams as TD machine
We wouldn’t necessarily bet on the Lions’ defence. But rather on a touchdown from running back Jamaal Williams, who has already scored twelve touchdowns this season, three of them just last Sunday against the Giants.
Picks on a TD from him are therefore just as possible as on one from Amon-Ra St.Brown, who would simply be on it again. However, for Detroit vs. Buffalo a bet on a high-scoring fourth quarter is our No.1 betting option, as we also have the Bills in the game, who always like to score in this section.
Key Players:
QB: Jared Goff
RB: Jamaal Williams
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown
TE: Brock Wright
K: Michel Badgley
Buffalo Bills – stats & current form
After two close losses, the Bills were able to win a game again on Sunday. With this they could at least move up to second place in the AFC East. The goal, of course, is to win this one in the end.
It would be out of the question if they don’t succeed, as they still have four internal division duels on the agenda – three of them at home. Betting on a division title for the Bills is therefore a tip recommendation from us on the sidelines.
Defence slightly worse lately
For a long time, we had the Bills defense ranked number one among all NFL teams. Since the last two games, however, they have lost that rank and have now slipped to fifth (17.5 points conceded per game). That is still a good value, but the trend is going in the wrong direction.
So we don’t expect them to be able to keep up those 17.5 points against Detroit either and allow more than 20 points. However, that should be enough for a win due to their strong offence (28.1 points per game).
Rushing Game gets better momentum
Here especially their running game is coming into its own more and more. The signing of Nyheim Hines hasn’t had the desired effect on the scoreboard so far, but it seems to push the other backs Singletary and Cook significantly.
Against the Browns, both ended up with 86 yards and the running game became one of their most dangerous weapons. It should work the same way against the vulnerable Lions defence, which is why we see odds on a lot of Bills points as one of the most promising betting options for Lions vs Bills.
Key Players:
QB: Josh Allen
RB: Devin Singletary
WR: Stefon Diggs
TE: Dawson Knox
K: Tyler Bass
Detroit Lions – Buffalo Bills head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The head-to-head comparison is another reason why we don’t necessarily believe in a surprise for Thursday. Five of the last six duels between these two teams have gone to Buffalo. However, we are looking in vain for a really clear blowout victory among them.
The Lions also have their difficulties with Thanksgiving games. They have been waiting for a success on this holiday since 2016, although three times it was even against the Bears, who are not particularly strong either. The task of Buffalo, on the other hand, seems almost impossible.
Thus, for Detroit against Buffalo, the odds on the Bills are more playable than on the Lions. The question of the handicap, however, is tricky. We wouldn’t be alluding to more than 6.5-7.5 points here due to the Lions’ good form.
Detroit Lions – Buffalo Bills Tip
The Bills are back to their best and if everything goes normally, Detroit should not be a stumbling block due to their defensive weakness. However, the Lions are absolute masters of the fourth quarter, where the total points could then go through the roof.
Thus, for Lions vs Bills, betting on the 4th quarter as the highest scoring quarter is also our No. 1 betting recommendation. In addition, general over-point bets are also still a good possibility. Unless it gets incredibly cold on Thanksgiving. Then, according to experience, not quite as many points will be scored.
So should it be several degrees below zero, we need other betting alternatives. In this case, a bet on a Jamaal Williams touchdown. He is currently in such good shape that even sub-zero temperatures won’t bother him – especially since this would be conducive to the running game anyway. Accordingly, between Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills the betting odds on the Lions’ RB are very interesting.
