Will the Stars get the lead back at home?
Whoever leads 2-0 always loses. At least that was the formula for the last two duels. However, neither team should rely on that for our Stars vs Oilers betting tip for Game 5 on Friday.
Nevertheless, it is striking that in the Western Conference in general, a lead does not always mean victory. Even in the previous series in the West, there were often comebacks, which on the one hand speaks for a balance, but on the other hand also for a dubious goaltending
So Jake Oettinger (Stars) is starting to get a little infected by Stuart Skinner. Although the Stars still have a good goals-against average of just 2.53 per game in the postseason, it has already risen to 3.0 in this series.
So our prediction for Dallas vs. Edmonton in Game 5 is another high-scoring game, which could go to the Stars again in the end. They already took the decisive step in the series in round 1 when the score was 2-2 at home
First face-off of this important Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals is Saturday night at 2:30 a.m. in Dallas.
Dallas Stars – Statistics & current form
The Stars still have everything in their own hands. Nevertheless, it was naturally a little annoying from their point of view that they couldn’t defend their 2-0 lead in Game 4 a little longer or even throughout. But the fact that goalie Jake Oettinger had his weakest game to date also played a part.
We’re sure he won’t have two games in a row with less than 86% save percentage, which should boost the Stars’ chances for Saturday night. The Stars were also surprisingly restrained in the face-offs, which meant they clearly lost this duel too
More chances need to be generated
It’s noticeable that the Stars struggle offensively as soon as Oilers goalie Skinner has even a normal day. They can’t assume that he’s always the weakest man on the ice – even if that’s often been the case so far.
The only 22 shots on goal in Game 4 were clearly not enough. The Texans can’t tempt Skinner into making mistakes. However, that should now change again in their own arena. In front of their own fans, the Stars have put up 29.0 shots on goal per game so far in this series.
If they can do that again in Game 5, they will score at least three goals against Skinner. So the odds on Dallas over 2.5 goals in Dallas vs. Edmonton are again to be exploited
Tips on Stars to prefer something
In general, we now see this series more in the high scoring than in the low scoring area, which is also a big difference to the Rangers vs Panthers series. There we favor the low-scoring option from now on.
For Stars vs. Oilers, however, a bet on over 5.5 goals is our preferred alternative. For even better value, we can also combine this with a Dallas win predicted by us, in which case we only have to use 4.5 goals – and still get great value.
Key Players:
- G: Jake Oettinger
- D: Thomas Harley
- D: Miro Heiskanen
- LW: Jamie Benn
- C: Wyatt Johnston
- RW: Logan Stankoven
Edmonton Oilers – stats & current form
The Oilers are back and with a vengeance. After the Stars’ show of force in Game 4, they hardly gave Dallas a chance in Game 5 – despite trailing 2-0. Although the final turning point in this game came with a short-handed goal from Janmark.
Who knows how this game would have developed without this feat. Nevertheless, this game should encourage the Oilers that they can keep the Stars scoreless for more than two periods. Something that hardly worked before
Skinner as Achilles heel
For hardly any other team in this year’s playoffs, the weal and woe depends as much on a single player as Edmonton: goalie Stuart Skinner. If he performs reasonably well, the Oilers win – if he lets up, they have little chance of winning.
Only in Game 5 against the Kings were the Oilers able to win despite a desolate performance by Skinner (save percentage: 85.7%) thanks to their own conversion of chances. So the big question now is: How will Skinner perform on Saturday?
We expect a similar performance to Game 4 (90.9%), which will probably not be enough for a win. Because the Stars will shoot on goal much more often than on Wednesday
Picking the Stars against the Oilers is difficult
All in all, it’s not that easy to find the right picks for this game, as the Stars are our favorites, but only by a razor-thin margin. We have already mentioned the over points as an alternative.
Player bets are also back in play. If a lot of goals are scored, there is a greater chance that there will be several different scorers. For Saturday, we see the odds on a goal by Jason Robertson in Dallas vs. Edmonton as the best playable, followed by a goal by Leon Draisaitl, who seems to have overcome his short period of weakness.
Key Players:
- G: Stuart Skinner
- D: Mattias Ekholm
- D: Evan Bouchard
- LW: Warren Foegele
- C: Connor McDavid
- RW: Zach Hyman
Dallas Stars – Edmonton Oilers head-to-head / H2H record
1:0 to 1:2 to 2:2 – it’s back and forth in this series. This also makes it difficult to predict the winner for Game 5. However, it is often the case in the NHL that when things are close, the team with the better goalie often wins.
That would clearly be the Stars, which makes it easier to predict Dallas against Edmonton. However, since they are also considered the favorites, we want to improve the odds a little. And the best way to do that in this matchup is of course with a combination of over-goals.
In the last two games, an average of 7.5 goals have been scored in total, which makes betting on over 5.5 goals interesting. In combination with a Stars win, however, 4.5 total goals is enough for us. We would be very surprised if this number was not surpassed
Dallas Stars – Edmonton Oilers betting tip
In the first two games, our gut led us right with a bet on the Oilers in Game 1 and the Stars in Game 2. For Saturday night, we now see the Stars ahead again – as we know about the Oilers’ inconsistency.
So for Stars vs. Oilers, a bet on Dallas + Over 4.5 total goals is our bet of choice. However, pure over-points bets on Over 5.5 or even Over 6.0 goals are also an appealing option.
As an alternative, we have already prepared Player Bets at attractive Stars vs. Oilers odds on Jason Robertson (three goals in this series) and Leon Draisaitl (ten goals in this postseason) as good options.
