Will the Flames close the bag away from home?
One of the most hotly contested series is between the Stars and Flames in these NHL playoffs. It wasn’t quite expected after the Canadiens’ strong Regular Season. But due to their weak playoff record in the last few years, it kind of was.
In any case, Calgary now heads back to Dallas with a 3:2 series lead, where the Stars can even the series. In the process, only a blink of an eye separates the two teams, even statistically speaking.
Both on the powerplay (10.5% to 10% per Calgary), in penalty killing (90% to 89.5% per Calgary), in face-offs (50.9% uzt 49.1% per Dallas) and in goals against (rank 1 and 2 league-wide) both teams are almost equal.
This promises a duel on a razor’s edge again for Game 6, which the betting odds do not quite reflect. For Stars vs Flames, our prediction is a game where anything can happen and therefore the high odds on Dallas are really good bets.
Dallas Stars – Statistics & current form
The Stars got what they asked for. A tough and physical series that can go either way. With a home win, they can force a Game 7, in which, as we know, anything is then possible and often even the away team wins.
But to do that, they have to score in Game 6 and that’s not easy against the Flames. It is the series with the fewest total goals and neither team averages over 2.0 goals. So just three goals would be a big step towards victory.
Defence duel at its best
Accordingly, both teams also lead the league in defence values. The Flames allow only 1.60 goals against per game, the Stars also only 2.00. There have already been two shutouts in the series and two other times a team scored only one goal.
So it is possible to bet on Dallas vs. Calgary that both teams will not score two or more goals. In four of the five previous duels this would have been successful. Of course, general sub-par scores are also an option, although the bookmakers set lower prices from game to game.
Goaltending the tipping point
If the Stars want to reach a seventh game, then a lot will again depend on their goalie Jake Oettinger on Friday. He’s been delivering so far, though, and has the best save percentage of any starting goalie in the league at 95.6%.
He even outshines Jacob Markstrom, one of the best goalies of the season. If he manages to do that again this weekend, then a home win is not unlikely, which makes betting on the Stars very interesting at these sensational odds.
Key Players:
G: Jake Oettinger
D: Ryan Suter
D: Miro Heiskanen
LW: Jason Robertson
C: Roope Hintz
RW: Joe Pavelski
Calgary Flames – Statistics & current form
The Flames now have two games to finally live up to their role as favourites and if impressions of the series so far are anything to go by, they will need those two games. For now an immensely difficult game awaits them in LA.
After all, the Stars were a very good home team with 27:14 wins in the regular season, which they also proved in the first duel of this series with 4:2. So it will take a top performance for Calgary to avoid Game 7.
Offensively still under form
While the Flames’ defence has continued its regular-season form into the playoffs, allowing the fewest goals against of any team (1.60), the same cannot be said for their offence.
They score just 2.00 goals per game, which is only 15th and second to last among all playoff teams. Against Stars goalie Jake Oettinger, the Flames have often lost out, even in 1-on-1 situations. That has to change, because even their own goalie Jacob Markstrom will have a bad day sometimes.
Flames “for real” or “overhyped”?
This raises a big question: many pundits were calling the Flames a possible Stanley Cup finalist before the postseason. Rightly so? We’re split on this one, as there are plenty of teams in the league that have much more to offer offensively.
However, with a little luck, this defence can carry them a long way. This luck is also the catch, however, as many of their games are near 50-50 duels, as low scoring games. So it will be again on Saturday, where anything can happen too.
So for Stars vs Flames, betting on Calgary is not really worthwhile due to the low odds. Sub-points or even slight risk bets on Los Angeles with low stakes are clearly the better options here.
Key Players:
G: Jacob Marktstrom
D: Noah Hanifin
D: Rasmus Andersson
LW: Johnny Gaudreau
C: Elias Lindholm
RW: Matthew Tkachuk
Dallas Stars – Calgary Flames Direct Comparison / H2H-Balance
Further, this series remains fairly low-scoring due to the Flames’ strong defence and the outstanding form of Stars goalie Oettinger. This should remain the case for the rest of the series, which is why we don’t expect more than five total goals.
As far as head-to-head duels are concerned, the two teams don’t take each other much (unsurprisingly). In the last ten duels of the Regular Season it is 6:4 for Dallas, just like in the last ten playoff duels.
This is another reason to question the Flames’ heavy favouritism a little and not go with the flow here. For Stars vs Flames, the odds on Dallas are so good that we are already getting exceptional value with little wagering.
Dallas Stars – Calgary Flames Tip
It should be a game like always in this series. The Flames are considered the favourites and will have fired one or two more shots in the end, but still not many goals are likely to be scored.
If the Stars are accurate and score at least three goals, then the chances are good that they can save themselves for a Game 7. With the game only a 51-49 proposition for Calgary for us, a bet on Dallas is our first betting option on Stars vs Flames.
Once again, defence is the trump card in this game. Thus, bets on under-points (Under 5 or Under 5.5) are a popular betting alternative, which we recommend accordingly.
