Will the Avs clinch the Stanley Cup at home?

Matchball Avs – Home Game Avs – Decision for the Avs? After their narrow overtime win in Tampa on Wednesday, Colorado now heads into Game 5 with a 3-1 lead, again in front of their own fans. A great chance for the favourite to put the lid on it already.

The last home game the Avalanche lost was a month ago and was Game 5 of the series against the Blues. That should serve as a warning to them, as they had a chance to decide it all at home in that series as well and then came up short in the end.

In addition, the Lightning have also been in the Finals since Game 3 and also had more shots on goal than Colorado (39:37) for the first time ever in Game 4. It’s almost ironic that they lost this game of all games.

Overall, however, there is much more to be said for the Avalanche, which makes a prediction in favour of the home team inevitable in Colorado vs. Tampa. Even if this series has already given us one or two surprising results, everything should take its expected course on Friday.

First face-off of this possibly already decisive Game 5 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Finals is on Saturday night at 02:00 in Denver, Colorado. The game can be watched live as usual on Sky Sport or with an NHL Game Pass on NHL.com

Colorado Avalanche – Statistics & current form

The Avalanche only need one more win to bring the first Stanley Cup to Denver since 2001. And who still doubts it at the moment? Only one team has managed to turn around a 1:3 deficit in the finals to win the Cup, and that was the Maple Leafs 81 years ago!

Even the parents of today’s players weren’t born then. So it seems clear that the Avs will win this thing, the only question is: when? They have a prime opportunity to do so in front of their home crowd on Friday.

Home field advantage as a fist pump

The Avs were the strongest team at home in the entire league during the regular season with a 32-5-4 record, and they are now undefeated in Denver for a month in the playoffs as well. One more home win and they will have achieved their big goal.

In their last home game six days ago, Colorado even dismantled the Bolts 7-0 at home. But this has no meaning now, because an “elimination game”, as it is so nicely called in the USA, always has its own laws.

There are sometimes very surprising results, because the pressure is one step higher. Nevertheless, we see this Avs team with the many veterans around Landeskog, Kadri or Toews as strong enough to handle this pressure.

Powerplay as door opener

Once again in Game 4, it was a power play goal (MacKinnon) that got the Avs back in the game. They will look to build on that strength in Game 5 as well. With 34.5%, the Avalanche are in first place in the playoff rankings by a wide margin on the overtime game.

Their opponent from Tampa only has 19.7% – one of the reasons for their 3:1 lead so far. Thus, for Avs vs Bolts, the odds on Colorado are recommended despite the bigger favourite status – best with bets on Under 7.5 hits, which are unlikely to be reached in such an important game.

Key Players:
G: Darcy Kuemper
D: Devon Toews
D: Cale Makar
LW: Valeri Nichuskin
C: Nathan MacKinnon
RW: Mikko Rantanen

Tampa Bay Lightning – Statistics & current form

The Lightning have a fighting heart, we’ll give them that. It’s just that in these Stanley Cup Finals, they’re losing the killer instinct that has distinguished them the last two seasons. Finishing off an opponent when they get the chance.

Twice they led at home in Game 4, only to see the score tied each time. To make matters worse, Tampa Bay then allowed Nazem Kadri to wander into their own zone in overtime and score the deciding goal.

Is the Bolts’ resistance broken?

In recent years it has often been the Bolts who have won these critical games, demoralising their opponents. It was not uncommon for such games to be followed by a fairly clear-cut clash as the morale of their opponents was broken, at least momentarily.

Is this happening to the Lightning themselves now? We don’t think so, because besides the fighting heart, they also have outstanding players on the ice, not to mention one of the best goalies in the entire NHL. We think Vasilevskiy will also be the reason there won’t be a blowout loss to the Bolts on Friday.

Vasilevskiy and Hedman are too little

Vasilevskiy was in outstanding form again in Game 4, deflecting 91.9% of all shots. Together with defence anchor Victor Hedman (who also scored), they held the shop together at the back. They should be able to do that again on Friday, but in these Cup Finals they are lacking in other areas – namely in attack.

Not even the 6:2 of game 3 can hide that, in which the opposing goalies were simply non-existent. All in all, though, they average only 2.75 goals in the Finals. By comparison, the Avs are at 4.0 goals per game here.

That’s more than a one goal difference and with at least that one goal, we see Colorado ahead on Friday as well. Thus, for Avalanche vs. Lightning, a bet on Colorado is the favoured betting option for us.

Key Players:
G: Andrei Vasilevskiy
D: Victor Hedman
D: Jan Rutta
LW: Ondrej Palat
C: Steven Stamkos
RW: Nikita Kucherov

Statistic Highlights for Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning

While the Bolts again fought back with everything at their disposal, they could not prevent the sixth defeat in the last eight duels. The score is now 1:3 in the series and the momentum is once again on the side of the Avs.

They now not only have the moral advantage, but will also have the support of the crowd in Game 5. Already in the convincing 7-0 win a few days ago, the fans carried their team like on a wave.

Thus, the odds on the home team are to be exploited for Avs against Lightning, whereby we even recommend a combination bet with Under 7.5 goals here. This number has only been surpassed once in the series and usually deciding games are lower scoring.

Colorado Avalanche – Tampa Bay Lightning Tip

Although the away team was victorious on Wednesday, we trust in the home advantage again for Friday. This was decisive three times before and also in the entire playoffs the Avs presented themselves as a power at home.

Thus, a bet on the Avalanche is our preferred betting option for Colorado vs. Tampa. To increase the value even more, we recommend a combination with under 7.5 goals. It is very rare for that number to be exceeded in an elimination game.

Also for Game 5 in Colorado vs. Tampa, our betting alternative is a tip on a scorer’s points of a player. After it worked well with Victor Hedman last time, we recommend tips on a point from Cale Makar for Friday. He already has a strong 27 scoring points in the postseason