Do de Avalanche close the bag?
It ain’t over till the fat lady sings. That’s a saying all St. Louis Blues fans must now remember, even though it already looks very much like the series will come to an end Wednesday night.
The Avalanche have simply been too strong in the last two games in St. Louis. They dominated Game 4 on Monday away from home with 37:20 shots. It would be a big surprise if the struggling Blues could now strike back in Denver of all places.
The Blues can’t really think of a way to keep the Avalanche away from their own box, especially in the 5-on-5 game. Only their very strong power play (35.3% success rate: No.1 in the playoffs) created chances and goals for them.
Thus, our forecast for Colorado vs. St. Louis for Game 5 is another unchallenged victory for the Avalanche, who should also move into the Conference Finals. In the meantime, more goals are being scored in this series, which could also be the case on Wednesday.
Colorado Avalanche – Statistics & Current Form
Favourite status cemented. With the clear 6:3 in Game 4, the Colorado Avalanche proved once again that they are the top favourites for the 2022 Stanley Cup. Even if the Tampa Bay Lightning are catching up more and more in the East.
Not only the results show that, but also the way the Avs win their games. 37:20 shots away from home is a statement, but so is the 27:23 hits they gave out despite leading. Usually, the rebounding team often wins this duel.
Only the Penalty Killing is still improvable
If there’s one thing the Avs need to work on for the playoffs going forward, it’s their shorthanded play. On three St. Louis power plays, they conceded two goals. That’s too many and their only 66.7% success rate in the entire postseason doesn’t look good either.
That only puts them in 14th place among all playoff teams, and that’s as the top favourite for the Cup. At least the other side of the special teams, the powerplay unit, works well. Here they put up the second best overtime game of the playoffs with a 33.3% success rate.
Chance of days off should motivate
If the Avs win on Wednesday, they can use it to earn some days off. Since the Flames’ series against the Oilers could go longer, up to seven days off is possible. A nice incentive to recharge the batteries.
So for Avalanche vs Blues, a bet on Colorado is our clear betting recommendation. They should also score at least four goals again. In the entire postseason, they are even averaging 4.5 goals per game – a league high.
Key Players:
G: Darcy Kuemper
D: Devon Toews
D: Cale Makar
LW: Valeri Nichuskin
C: Nathan MacKinnon
RW: Mikko Rantanen
St. Louis Blues – Statistics & current form
It seems to be coming to an end with the Blues. Not that they don’t fight, but in the last two games they gave the impression that they have left a few more grains over the season than the Avs.
Even if we trust them to make one last push, we dare to doubt that they will be able to stop the Avs who have gained momentum. The outstanding form of David Perron doesn’t help either. With nine goals, he has now moved into second place in the playoff scoring list.
Offense good – Defence bad
However, for them to have even a hint of a chance, they need to get back to a stable defence. In their two home games, they conceded an average of 5.5 goals, which means that wins are almost impossible.
Of course, the absence of regular goalie Jordan Binnington also plays a role here. While he has a goals against average of 1.71 in the playoffs, his deputy Ville Husso lags behind considerably with 3.76 goals against.
Without Binnington almost without a chance
With word already out that Binnington is out for the rest of the series, we see little hope for St. Louis to turn this one around. It would be very surprising if Ville Husso suddenly overachieves, something he has never been able to do in his short playoff career (only 4 starts).
For Avs vs Blues, the odds for betting on Colorado are accordingly no longer quite as high, but we can compensate for this with a slight handicap. Handicap bets of -1, -1.5 or possibly even -2 are still very feasible.
Key Players:
G: Ville Husso
D: Nick Leddy
D: Colton Parayko
LW: Brayden Schenn
C: Ryan O’Rielly
RW: David Perron
Colorado Avalanche – St. Louis Blues Direct comparison / H2H balance
8:1 The playoff record in this matchup is now in favour of the Avalanche. That speaks volumes, and so did Game 4 on Monday. The Avs don’t seem to want to show any more weakness after the rather embarrassing 1:4 home defeat in Game 2.
Accordingly, the odds on them continue to fall. For Colorado vs. St. Louis, the odds on pure win bets are best provided with a handicap or combined with over-points.
For Wednesday, we are expecting a few goals again. That’s partly due to the Blues’ unsettled backup goalie, but also to the Avs’ improving attack, with Nazem Kadri in particular taking centre stage with four goals and two assists in the last two games.
Colorado Avalanche – St. Louis Blues Tip
We say goodbye to the under points that prevailed for now. Thus, Over 6.5 goals is a bet that is recommended. That said, this is not the bet we think is most promising.
Given the Avs’ current form, anything other than a pro Colorado recommendation would be negligent. Thus, for Avalanche vs Blues, a bet at attractive odds on the Avs -1 is our bet of choice. Even a slightly larger handicap is still possible in front of their own fans.
As a betting alternative for Game 5, we trust the good form of Nazem Kadri. A bet on a scoreline from the Avs striker seems like a very nice betting option given his current scoring prowess.
