Do the Avs start the playoffs with a home victory?
It’s been just five days since the last meeting between these two teams. Last Thursday these two teams met in Denver and it was an open exchange with the better end for Nashville.
In the end it was 5:4 for the Preds after a penalty shootout and that’s exactly the outcome they want for Tuesday night. But then it will be harder to win at the Avs – though not impossible.
In that respect, the 1.5 to 2 points of handicap that the bookies are giving the Avalanche is already a fat cushion that we wouldn’t necessarily allude to like that. Especially since three of the four duels this season went to Nashville.
Thus, our forecast for Avalanche vs Predators is a much closer game than the oddsmakers predict. Also, since the playoffs traditionally feature fewer goals than the regular season, a blowout win is even less likely.
Colorado Avalanche – Statistics & current form
Six of last seven games lost. This is the balance of the Avalanche in the regular season and only with a saving for the postseason can certainly not be explained this negative series. As a result, they also missed out on the Presidents’ Trophy for the best team of the pre-season.
Their 119 points are still the second best of all NHL teams and by far the best in the Western Conference. But going into the postseason on such a run is certainly not what they wanted in Colorado.
Their stats have also suffered badly of late
The negative run not only reflected negatively on the President’s Trophy, but also in their stats. They dropped as low as fourth in goals scored (3.76 goals per game) and as low as ninth in goals conceded (2.83 goals per game).
While this still puts them ahead of their upcoming opponent from Nashville in both categories, a big favourite status certainly looks different. To our surprise, though, the oddsmakers see it a little differently.
Avalanche with the lowest odds in round one
With all the games in the first round of the playoffs, there is no team that goes into the matchup with a bigger favourite status than the Avs. We get odds of just 1.54 for a bet on Colorado, and even just 1.30 including overtime.
This in turn makes betting on the Predators with a handicap interesting. So for Colorado vs. Nashville, odds on the Predators +2 are an exciting betting option that still gives us top value and lets us win on every close game.
Key Players:
G: Darcy Kuemper
D: Devon Toews
D: Cale Makar
LW: Valeri Nichuskin
C: Nathan MacKinnon
RW: Mikko Rantanen
Nashville Predators – Statistics & current form
The Predators ended up as the last team in the Western Conference to make the playoffs. However, that doesn’t seem so bad when we look at the current form curves. They now face the team with the lowest form of all playoff participants in the West.
Even though Colorado is considered unbeatable on paper, we see a surprise in the playoff round as a possibility. A good indication of that was already visible last Thursday, when Nashville triumphed over the Avs 5:4 after a penalty shootout
Predators need to play physical
For that to succeed, though, they need high intensity. They showed that last week, though, when they wore down the Avs in the end with a total of 42 hits. If they can do that again, then there is something in it for Tuesday.
While we also see the Preds at a slight disadvantage in this first playoff round, we don’t see an 0-4 series loss happening, as some pundits suggest. So why shouldn’t something be up for grabs in the first duel?
Defence will be challenged
Against one of the best offensive teams in the league, it will depend heavily on their defence. With 3.05 goals conceded per game, their defence ranks below average in the NHL (17th in the league).
This is also where we see the biggest deficit and one reason why it will probably not be enough over the series. However, the individual games should be close, which is why a tip on Nashville +2 for Avalanche vs. Predators is recommended in any case.
Key Players:
G: David Rittich
D: Roman Josi
D: Dante Fabbro
LW: Filip Forsberg
C: Mikael Granlund
RW: Matt Duchene
Colorado Avalanche – Nashville Predators Direct comparison / H2H-balance
The Predators really didn’t want to face Colorado in Playoff Round 1. The last three duels all went to Nashville, the last one only last Thursday – also at the Pepsi Center in Denver.
All the more surprising, then, is the big lead the bookies are giving the Avs. It’s as if everyone is sure the Avalanche have been off the gas on purpose in recent weeks – losing six of their last seven games.
We’re not so sure at all, and if they are, a switch to playoff form won’t happen overnight. Thus, for Colorado vs. Nashville, odds on the Predators are strongly recommended with a handicap of up to + 2 points.
Colorado Avalanche – Nashville Predators Tip
We won’t deny that the Avalanche are favourites and are still considered one of the top favourites to win the Stanley Cup. But after six losses in their last seven games, we can’t see them being so clearly ahead.
Sure, with their home-ice advantage they could win this first game, but on Avalanche vs. Predators a bet on Nashville +2 at still very good odds is our clear betting recommendation.
As an alternative, bets on subpar points are now possible again in the playoffs. Especially teams like the Avs, who traditionally can defend strongly, will now focus on this ability more in the postseason than in the last games of the regular season. The Colorado Avalanche vs. Nashville Predators prediction on under 5.5 goals brings betting odds of just under 3.00.
