Do McDavid and Draisaitl stay hot?
The NHL Conference Finals are underway and Leon Draisaitl’s Edmonton Oilers have to travel to Nico Sturm’s Colorado Avalanche to get things started. The Mile High City of Denver will host the first two games as the Avs have earned home-ice advantage over the season.
This also clearly establishes their status as favourites, as Colorado are not only considered favourites in this series, but even for the overall Stanley Cup. The underdog role suits the Oilers quite well, however, as they already held it against the Flames in the previous round.
If there’s one thing we’ve learned from the last few years, it’s that being a favourite only matters half as much as current form. Both teams don’t take much away from each other offensively, as the best (Oilers) and second-best offence (Avs) meet.
Where we can see slight but decisive advantages, however, is in the defence. The Avs concede an average of 0.38 goals less per game than Edmonton, which is why our prediction for Avalanche vs. Oilers for Game 1 is also for a home team win.
Colorado Avalanche – Statistics & current form
Favourite status assumed, favourite status maintained – that’s the Avalanche’s record after their second-round series against the St. Louis Blues, against whom they only wobbled slightly at home once in Game 5. However, the Avalanche were not really threatened in this duel.
That could change now against the hot Oilers, even though they are once again considered big favourites in this matchup. Against Edmonton, Colorado will just have to be careful not to let their opponents’ offence run hot.
High scoring games expected
Which brings us to the strengths of both teams and that is the offense. Both lead the playoff offensive rating by a wide margin. Edmonton, for example, scores 4.33 goals per game, Colorado only slightly less (4.30).
This makes betting on over-points interesting for this matchup, especially at the beginning of the series. The one or other game could turn into a shootout and results like 5:4 or 6:3 should not remain an isolated incident.
Defence is the deciding factor
But since neither team is much of a matchup offensively, defense could be the deciding factor in a series sweep – and there’s no doubt that Colorado’s is better. The Avs concede an average of 0.38 fewer goals per game.
In the previous round, they conceded only 3.0 goals per game, whereas Edmonton conceded 4.0 goals per game in the Flames series. That one goal difference doesn’t sound like much, but it’s almost a small world in the NHL.
Thus, for Avalanche vs Oilers, a bet on the Avs for both Game 1 on Tuesday and for the overall series win is our betting recommendation. The following scoring points from their two stars will not change that.
Key Players:
G: Darcy Kuemper
D: Devon Toews
D: Cale Makar
LW: Valeri Nichuskin
C: Nathan MacKinnon
RW: Mikko Rantanen
Edmonton Oilers – Statistics & current form
For the first time since 2006, the Oilers reached the Conference Finals, which can also be called the Habfinals series in the NHL. They face the toughest possible opponent in the West, the Avalanche. However, they have already beaten the Avs once in the regular season.
That was at home, however, and they have been waiting for a win away from home in Denver since 2018. Nevertheless, the anticipation is great for the Canadians and especially for their stars McDavid and Draisaitl, for whom these are also the first Conference Finals.
McDavid and Draisaitl in a world of their own
These two have also excelled throughout the postseason so far. With 26 scorer points each, they lead a playoff ranking as far as a forward duo has ever managed. Fox and Zibanejad are already ten points behind them.
So it is already almost clear that one of the two will also be the best scorer of the playoffs. The only question is who? With Evander Kane, the Oilers also have a third iron in the fire, who also already has 15 scorer points to his name. Thus, this trio of forwards forms by far the best line in the league.
We have already written about their somewhat weaker defence, but there is another point that is being hotly debated in the Oilers camp and which is also likely to be a deciding factor: How is the already 40-year-old goalie Mike Smith doing?
Against the Flames he was sometimes outstanding (97% save percentage in Game 3), but sometimes disastrous (70% save percentage in Game 1 + a complete lapse in Game 4). Although he has a slightly better catch rate than his counterpart Kuemper, we see him more as a safety risk.
Together with the weaker defensemen (Cale Makar is nowhere to be found on their team), the odds per Avs are thus easier to play against in Colorado vs. Edmonton. The best bet for Game 1 is probably a combination of Avalanche + Over 5.5 points to boost the value a bit.
Key Players:
G: Mike Smith
D: Darnell Nurse
D: Cody Ceci
LW: Evander Kane
C: Connor McDavid
RW: Leon Draisaitl
Colorado Avalanche – Edmonton Oilers Direct Comparison / H2H-Balance
It’s off to the Western Conference Finals and it’s 0-0 at the start there too, so that’s all we need to know about this duel at this point. Moreover, the head-to-head record has been very even in recent years (5:5 in the last ten games).
So now it all depends on the current form. The Oilers are a tad better offensively, the Avs defensively. However, since Colorado has been the best home team in the entire West and has only lost five games after regulation time, we definitely have to take this point into account.
This fact plus the greater playoff experience on the team leads us to bet on the home team for Avs vs. Oilers. In order to improve the value a bit, we can also add over 5.5 points with a clear conscience. These should be easily surpassed by the two best offenses.
Colorado Avalanche – Edmonton Oilers Tip
The Avs are considered the favourites in this series by almost all experts. That’s understandable and easy to explain, especially as defense becomes more and more important during the course of a postseason.
We are also jumping on this bandwagon and see the odds on the Avalanche for Colorado against Edmonton as a recipe for success – especially in the home games. Away in Edmonton, however, the momentum could then change.
Tip alternatives throughout the series are bets on scoring points from the three top stars: Nathan McKinnon (6 points in the last 5 games), Connor McDavid (12 points) and Leon Draisaitl (17 scoring points in his last 5 games!).
