Will it be the next Browns thriller in Cleveland?

2-3 vs. 2-3 is the name of the game Sunday in Cleveland, and yet the tempers are completely different for the Browns and Patriots. The Browns come into this game with two avoidable losses, whereas the Pats are coming off a sensational 29-0 loss to the Lions.

The loss of quarterback Mac Jones is almost forgotten, although he may even be ready to return on Sunday. For New England, however, this is only a secondary aspect, as their defence has carried them through the season so far.

The Browns would also like to have a better defence, as they allow an average of 5.4 points more than the Pats. Still, we don’t see them as the underdogs on Sunday now, even though some factors would certainly suggest that.

However, we believe the Browns will bounce back and it will be another very close game against New England. Thus, for Browns vs. Patriots, our prediction is a close win for the home team, although it could come down to the final minutes.

Kickoff of the NFL Week 6 AFC Duel is Sunday at 7:00pm in Cleveland. The game can be watched live on ENDZN on DAZN.

Cleveland Browns – Statistics & current form

Breakdown against the Jets, orgy of mistakes against the Falcons and now this weekend a missed field goal to win against the Chargers. That’s how the Browns’ three losses so far have gone. In a more or less normal course of events, they could already be 5-0. But it’s the Browns.

For years, they have always found ways to lose games, which makes betting on them a real daredevil’s act. Because they actually have a team together that could play a very good role in the league.

Brissett lacks the winning gene

When we talk about the Browns’ “almost-5-0 start,” of course we have to talk about quarterback Jacoby Brissett. In all three losses, he threw an interception just before the end at the most inopportune time.

Each time, he ruined what was actually a good performance and also ruined his stats. The fact that he still has a passer rating of 85.4 speaks for the fact that he always performs really well until shortly before the end.

But it is not enough to play 58 minutes well, because in the NFL a game lasts 4 x 15 minutes. In this respect, the return of Deshaun Watson in week 12 could actually bring an improvement. The question will be how well the Browns are in the standings by then or if the playoff train has already left the station.

Weak fourth quarter

What was evident in the three losses was already one of the Browns weaknesses on Game Day 1: the fourth quarter. In four of the five games played so far, the last quarter was lost, which is of course disastrous, especially in close games.

This is exactly what makes betting on the Browns difficult, as they always shoot themselves in the foot towards the end. So for Cleveland vs. New England a bet on the Browns -3 is possible, but also one on the Pats in the fourth quarter.

The safest bets for us are on at least three field goals. Since the Pats have problems generating touchdowns, there could also be a constant exchange of field goals on Sunday. Plus, it would do the Browns good to get kicker Cade York back to confidence as soon as possible after his gaffe against LA.

Key Players:
QB: Jacoby Brissett
RB: Nick Chubb
WR: Amari Cooper
TE: David Njoku
K: Cade York

New England Patriots – stats & current form

No Jones – no problem. Hardly any NFL team in recent years stands for the “next man up” philosophy like the New England Patriots. If one of them drops out, the next player simply steps in. Even if it is the quarterback, as in this case Bailey Zappe.

So the Pats are now an incredible 7-1 with new quarterbacks under Bill Belichick. That means new quarterbacks have a much easier time with his tactics – or in other words, he makes it easier for them.

QB not the crucial position

So there’s the curiosity with New England that the quarterback position can’t even be considered the game-changing position. Even completely without a quarterback, they would have won the game last time out against Detroit – on the points scored by their defence alone.

Of course, that doesn’t make betting with Pats involvement any easier. Against the Lions, kicker Nick Folk added a whopping five field goals and with the low number of touchdowns scored this season (only 4 passing touchdowns), the Pats’ field goal unit should continue to be busy.

Rushing + Field Goals

The running game is also even more important to the Pats than the passing game, as evidenced by 5-for-4 touchdowns on the ground. With Rhamondre Stevenson, a player who wasn’t at the top of the list of top rushers before also played himself into the limelight here.

Thus, two betting options come into focus for us. On the one hand, the odds on a rushing touchdown by Stevenson are interesting for Browns vs. Pats, on the other hand a bet on more than 3 field goals in total. Pats kicker Nick Folk alone made five field goals against the Lions.

Key Players:
QB: Bailey Zappe
RB: Damien Harris
WR: DeVante Parker
TE: Hunter Henry
K: Nick Folk

Cleveland Browns – New England Patriots Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

The last four head-to-head duels have each gone to the Patriots, including three of the four by at least a 14-point margin. The Pats even destroyed Cleveland 45-7 last year, so this matchup has suited New England excellently recently, and even after the Brady era.

Another small point that moves us away from betting on the Browns, even if they are the favourites in our eyes. But the Pats can also score with their defence, which is an extremely efficient way to win games.

Moreover, this could push up the low-scoring total. With both teams averaging over 20 points, and the Browns averaging 26.6, Cleveland vs. New England odds of over 43.0 total points are a nice betting option.

Cleveland Browns – New England Patriots Tip

Will the Browns finally see a game through to the end or will they find a way to lose the game again? This question is also crucial for betting, as for us a tip on the stronger rated home team is basically possible.

Nevertheless, we decide to bet on more than three field goals for the Browns against the Pats. The Pats alone scored five of them in the last game and together this number should be easily reached on Sunday.

Alternatively, we had brought up the Over 43.0 total points as a bet. That number could very well be surpassed with some field goals and rushing touchdowns by Stevenson and Nick Cubb (another interesting option).