Is the Broncos’ losing streak in Cleveland snapping?
Thursday night is crisis night this week in the NFL. Because with the Cleveland Browns and the Denver Broncos, two teams meet that have already lost five games in a row. Cleveland has lost two, Denver three.
Injuries play a major role for the Browns, who have been missing wide receiver Jarvis Landry for some time now and added other important players before the last game in the form of running back Nick Chubb, linebacker Malcolm Smith and right tackle Jack Conklin.
To make matters worse, quarterback Baker Mayfield and sophomore running back Kareem Hunt were injured in the game. Of course, the Thursday Night Game comes at the most inopportune time, as it’s not certain that either of them will make it back by then.
This has a huge impact on our prediction for Thursday, as our forecast for Browns vs. Broncos thus includes a switch of the favourite position. This is no longer held by Cleveland, but by Denver, which is in the better position, at least in terms of injuries.
Kickoff of the NFL’s Thursday Night Game is at 02:20 on Friday night and the game will be broadcast live on DAZN.
Cleveland Browns – Statistics & current form
The Browns are currently being badly battered. Not only are they blowing their great starting position in the AFC North right now and are only in third place after six games with 3-3 wins, but they are also struggling injury-wise.
We’ve already listed above the missing Landry, Smith, Chubb and Conklin and if Mayfield and Hunt are indeed out for Thursday too, then good night Cleveland.
Time running out for Mayfield
With Baker Mayfield in particular, it will likely be a game time decision as to whether he will be able to suit up. With oddsmakers assuming “yes”, they still see the Browns as the medium heavy favourites.
But even if Mayfield can suit up with his injured shoulder, we don’t expect him to be anywhere near 100%, which puts a big question mark on betting on Cleveland for us. Without a fit quarterback and with banged-up running backs, there’s little to be gained in this league.
Defence must pull the coals out of the fire
It could be enormously difficult against this good Broncos defence. So all hopes are on their own defence again. But they recently allowed 47 points against the Chargers and 37 against the Cardinals – admittedly two top teams.
Nevertheless, this shows that the defence is not up to scratch either and Teddy Bridgewater should be able to take advantage of that. The fact that Cleveland’s star defensive player Myles Garrett is also injured at the moment adds to the disaster.
In this respect, the odds on Denver for the Browns vs. the Broncos are much better than those on Cleveland. We know what we’re getting there and if Bridgewater has even a normal work day (without three interceptions), we see Denver ahead in the end.
Key Players:
– QB: Baker Mayfield
– RB: Nick Chubb
– WR: Odell Beckham Jr.
– TE: David Njoku
– K: Chase McLaughlin
Denver Broncos – Statistics & Current Form
The Broncos are currently at a 3-3 record and that is exactly how they are playing. Average, no more and no less. Still, they currently have a better vibe in the team than many other 3-3 candidates.
In addition, their injury lines have thinned out somewhat, although on Tuesday Teddy Bridgewater and Melvin Gordon were still listed as “Questionable”. All experts, however, are sure that both of them will be able to play.
Matchup suits the Broncos
Denver also features a top 4 defense in the NFL so far in terms of yards conceded and points scored. Especially against the run they are extremely good with only 85.5 yards conceded and since this is the strength of the Browns, this fact could help the Broncos.
It is often the case that the strength of one team outweighs the strength of the other – especially when the strength is more defensively oriented. The fact that Cleveland is also missing arguably its two best running backs also plays into Denver’s favour.
How do the Broncos get their offense going?
We expect the projected 42.5 total points to be surpassed nonetheless. For the simple reason: the Browns’ defence has been acting like a revolving door lately. With 84 counter-points in the last two games, Denver should be able to score at least 25.
Then it comes down to their defence. We foresee a very close matchup, which is why a bet on Denver is also more promising with Browns vs Broncos. In addition, the 42.5 points offered by the bookmakers are stacked very low. Bets on over-points are recommended here.
Key Players:
– QB: Teddy Bridgewater
– RB: Melvin Gordon
– WR: Courtland Sutton
– TE: Noah Fant
– K: Brandon McManus
Cleveland Browns – Denver Broncos Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
Another point that clearly favours Denver in this matchup is the direct comparison. Of the last 13 head-to-head matchups, the Broncos have won a whopping 12, most recently in November 2019.
That means even since the Browns overcame their slump, they haven’t outclassed Denver. Combined with the injury concerns on the roster, we therefore don’t see the Browns as the big favourites in this clash – in fact, we see them as the slight underdogs at the end of the day.
This makes the odds on the Broncos in Cleveland vs. Denver very interesting, in any combination. We get the greatest value for a combination of bets on Denver + over-points. Up to 4.50 is possible here, which we should take advantage of with a small bet.
Cleveland Browns – Denver Broncos Tip
The Browns are widely considered the favourites, although their handicap has already shrunk from over 6 to just 3-4 points since Sunday. The oddsmakers are also more likely to expect Hunt and Mayfield to miss out.
We would even go a step further and consider betting on the Broncos as absolutely viable. So with Browns vs. Broncos, a tip on Denver is our secret tip, best combined with bets on over-points.
Another betting alternative is a touchdown by Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton. He is currently hot and has also reached the end zone in each of the past two games. In the game Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos this forecast also brings attractive betting odds.
