Who will win in the rematch of the ‘AFC Championship Game’?
The 13th game day holds an absolute treat in store, because it comes to the edition of last year’s “AFC Championship Game”. In the “Paul Brown Stadium” the Cincinnati Bengals welcome the Kansas City Chiefs. In a comparison of the betting odds, we find the best odds for a win for the visitors at bookmaker Betano.
The home side have won five of their last six games and are currently tied with the Ravens in the division with a 7-4 record. Last week, they won against highly rated Titans and did so despite missing one of their key pass receivers due to injury.
For their part, the way the Chiefs are rolling through the season, running down everything in their path, is impressive. They easily beat the LA Rams 26-10 on the last matchday. In Ohio, however, a completely different calibre of team awaits the franchise around superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes in the Bengals vs.
Cincinnati Bengals – Statistics & current form
It’s 30.01.2021. The Bengals celebrate a monster comeback, win in overtime against the Kansas City Chiefs and enter the Super Bowl for the first time since 1988. There, as is well known, the fairytale ended without a happy ending.
Points galore?
Cincinnati have struggled to get going this season, but since the sixth day of play they have only lost to the Browns. Most recently, they even celebrated three wins in a row. Only four teams put more points on the scoreboard per game and of course the upcoming opponent is one of them.
That the bookmakers expect plenty of points in the match is shown by the over/under limit of 52.5 points, which is the highest of the entire matchday. Between the Bengals and Chiefs, a bet that the necessary 53 points will be scored is anything but unrealistic.
With Ja’Marr Chase, who was last on the field at the end of October, the home side expect to have an immensely important kickoff man back. That leaves quarterback Joe Burrow with one more offensive option available in his top-4 passing offense. Between the Bengals and Chiefs, that also leads us to predict that this will be an extremely uncomfortable matchup for the visitors’ vulnerable passing defense.
In the combined stats, which combine rushing and passing defence, both teams are close. However, the defensive units each have different strengths. The Bengals have the better pass defence in comparison, but they haven’t had to deal with such a potent offence yet either.
Key Players:
QB: Joe Burrow
RB: Samaje Perine
WR: Tyler Boyd
TE: Hayden Hurst
K: Evan McPherson
Kansas City Chiefs – stats & recent form
The Chiefs continue to march, almost unstoppable, towards division and conference wins. Kansas City is the only team in the AFC with nine wins, one ahead of the Dolphins and Bills. However, head coach Andy Reid’s team should not afford a slip-up, because in the fight for the first playoff spot every win will count in the end.
Variable Offense
The offense is averaging 29.6 points, the best in the league. Against the Rams, Patrick Mahomes once again led his offense down the field for well over 400 yards, but the team only converted one of six visits to the redzone for a touchdown.
Once again, however, the performance showed how versatile KC is in this unit, as Mahomes threw to a total of ten different pass receivers. Against the Bengals, however, wide receiver Kadarius Toney will be missing with a thigh injury.
Rookie Isiah Pacheco will continue to be the starting running back after Clyde Edwards-Helaire is now on the Injury Reserve list. Jerick McKinnon, who is also a running back on paper, is currently used almost exclusively in the passing game. Now the Chiefs get to deal with the Bengals’ recently improved rushing defence, which held Derrick Henry to an average of 2.2 and 28 total yards last week.
The Chiefs’ defence is league mediocre and has problems time and again, especially in pass defence. That was evident in the game against the Chargers, among others. That’s why we expect the visitors to score more than 24 points in the Chiefs vs Bengals game. A bet on this will bring great odds on the betting slip. Whether this is enough to win the game, however, is another matter.
Key Players:
QB: Patrick Mahomes
RB: Isiah Pacheco
WR: Marquez Valdes-Scantling
TE: Travis Kelce
K: Harrison Butker
Cincinnati Bengals – Kansas City Chiefs Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
We have already looked at the last duel, the AFC Championship Game. Last season, there was a regular-season clash before the playoff game, which the Bengals also won. In general, Cincinnati has always been a bad place for Kansas City in the past decades and the last away win was more than 38 years ago.
In each of the last six home games, the Bengals have had the upper hand. Can the Bengals actually pull off a seventh consecutive home win over the Chiefs? The odds for this are above the 2.00 mark in each comparison.
While Patrick Mahomes has already celebrated a win against the Bengals, at 45-10 in 2018, he has yet to do so twice against Cincinnati, with playmaker Joe Burrow.
Cincinnati Bengals – Kansas City Chiefs Tip
The Kansas City Chiefs are currently too good to make a recommendation on the home side in good conscience. However, we don’t see the Bengals without a chance in the matchup by any means. Since both teams have their strengths on the offensive side, we opt for a tip that both teams will score at least 25 points.
Those who want to be a little more cautious or operate with more units can also choose interesting odds of 1.86, at betting provider Bet365, for at least 20 points on both sides between the Bengals and Chiefs.
The logical consequence of this recommendation is that we also assume that the mark of at least 53 points will be reached. Last season, the meeting ended with a total of 65 points in the regular season.
We don’t dare to make a prediction on the outcome of the match, as we expect a similarly even match as suggested by the betting odds in the run-up. After all, some bookies still offer interesting betting odds if a Bengals victory is played with a small handicap.
