Who will win the crisis duel on Thursday?

Thursday Night is not a playoff night this week. That’s because neither of these teams should have any chance of reaching the postseason at the end of the season. Even though the Bears are currently 2-3, they wouldn’t be far from a Wild Card spot.

But they also have too weak an offence to be a long-term contender, scoring a meagre 17.2 points per game. The fifth fewest in the entire NFL. With the Commanders also scoring just 18.0 per game, we don’t expect a high scoring game on Thursday night.

With that being said, it’s hard to predict a winner. The two teams also take little away from each other when it comes to defence. The Commanders do concede a few more points per game (25.6 to 21.2), but they allow over 20 yards less per game.

No matter how we slice it, it’s likely to come down to a big play on Thursday as to who will win this game, so for Bears vs Commanders our prediction is a pure battle game. Since we also expect a cramp game, the 40 total points should not be topped.

Start of NFL Week 6’s NFC Duel is Friday night at 02:15 in Chicago. The game can be watched live on DAZN.

Chicago Bears – Statistics & current form

The Bears started like a bunch of chickens against Minnesota, then played themselves into a frenzy and ended up with another mistake that shouldn’t happen to a school team. Wide receiver Smith-Marsette simply forgot to run out of bounds and then had the ball snatched from his hands.

Otherwise, an overtime against the Vikings would have been possible – in Minnesota. That alone shows that the Bears weren’t all bad, even if it was their third loss in the last four games.

Justin Fields no Field General

And contrary to what his name suggests, quarterback Justin Fields has yet to be the playmaker they want in Chicago. With just 679 passing yards, he ranks a weak 31st among all quarterbacks, trailing even players (Flacco, Winston) who started two fewer games.

His only three touchdowns also don’t necessarily indicate that he has already developed chemistry with his receivers. Although it has to be said that it already looked much better against Minnesota over the last two quarters.

Everything hinges on the running game

The passing game is clearly in need of improvement. As a result, the pressure offensively rests solely on the shoulders of the running backs. If they then run for 78 yards, as they did against the Vikings, 47 of which came from QB Fields, then a win is almost impossible.

Their defence can’t be that good. Their only two wins this season came when the running game was working. Against the Texans, for example, they rushed for a total of 281 yards, which is likely to remain an exception for the entire season. Moreover, it was only the Texans.

With the Commanders also allowing an average of just 110.6 yards against the run, the matchup doesn’t quite suit the Bears. For Chicago vs. Washington, the odds on the Commanders are thus more likely to be exploited. They also give the slightly better value.

Key Players:
QB: Justin Fields
RB: David Montgomery
WR: Darnell Mooney
TE: Cole Kmet
K: Cairo Santos

Washington Commanders – stats & current form

Even closer than the Bears were to a win against the Vikings were the Commanders against the Titans. In the end, the Capitals were two yards short of a game-winning touchdown and Carson Wentz has to wear that shoe all by himself.

He fired three times from the 2-yard line into the end zone, two of which were uncatchable and the third of which was an interception that sealed the defeat. One could have expected a little more scrambling from him, whereby the play calling was also rather semi-optimal.

Commanders better than their record

Nevertheless, they can build on this game, as they came within a hair of defeating a last year’s playoff team. Moreover, their starting prgogram hasn’t exactly been easy. After all, their five opponents so far have a combined total of 15 wins.

With 1:4 wins, they are still in last place in their NFC East division. The play-off places are already far away and from now on it’s not only about the standings for the Commanders, but also about the honour of the franchise.

Running game needs to be much improved

With the next four games after Chicago all being against even stronger teams, the Commanders are already under enormous pressure against the Bears if they don’t want to start the season with unacceptable 1-9 wins. We will also get to see this motivation on Thursday.

Also in the play calling, where from now on a little more risk should be taken. In addition, the playbook for the running game should be opened up a bit, as they were subterranean here against Tennessee with 43 rushing yards. Luckily for them, Chicago has the second-weakest run defence, allowing an average of 170 rushing yards.

This should help Washington, which is why we actually favour a bet on Washington in Bears vs Commanders. Their play has been more convincing to us on the whole, despite their negative record this season.

Key Players:
QB: Carson Wentz
RB: Antonio Gibson
WR: Terry McLaurin
TE: Logan Thomas
K: Joey Slye

Chicago Bears – Washington Commanders Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

Another small point in Chicago’s favour on Thursday is their head-to-head record. While they lost their last meeting against the Bears in 2019, Washington has been victorious in six of the last seven meetings in Chicago.

Generally, not too many points are scored in games between these two teams this season. In the last three meetings involving the Commanders, the scoring average has been just 35 total points.

We see this number as a good gauge again for Thursday. Thus, Chicago vs. Washington odds are to be taken advantage of at Under 38.0 points, as we see this number as just bettable.

Chicago Bears – Washington Commanders Tip

Betting on subpar points or on the Commanders? It’s a 50-50 decision on which option to go for. However, since we are not assuming a win margin of just 1-2 points, we can stretch the odds on Washington a little easier.

So for Bears vs Commanders, a bet on Washington -3 is our favoured betting option. For such a good value, we would have to go down to under 34 on the total points, which would be a bit too risky for us.

In addition to betting on Under 38.0, betting on some Field Goals is also an option. With both teams struggling to score touchdowns, the number of field goals could go up.