Will the Latvians also surprise in Finland?

There will be a new world champion at the 2023 Ice Hockey World Championship. The Finns, as defending champions and hosts, were already bowled out of the tournament in the quarter-finals.

Four teams now still have the chance to secure World Cup gold. Surprisingly, the Latvian co-hosts are still in the game, but they will be the big underdogs in our Canada vs Latvia tip.

The Canadians have not played a good tournament so far, but it is a great quality to be right on the dot in the decisive matches. And in that respect, the North Americans have nothing to reproach themselves for.

This means, conversely, that the Maple Leafs should also have the much better cards against the Latvians in the semifinals on Saturday. However, the co-hosts at this World Cup have already shown that they can be a very unpleasant opponent. Nevertheless, there is probably no way around predicting a Canadian victory between Canada and Latvia.

The Latvians will now have to show what they are capable of away from home. So far they have played all their games in their home arena in Riga and now have to travel to Tampere for the semi-finals. There, the support from the stands will certainly not be as exuberant, although the Finnish crowd will certainly be more likely to root for the underdogs against the world championship winners.

Canada – Statistics & current form

There was no question that the Canadians would make it to the quarter-finals even before the World Cup. But the fact that the Maple Leafs would have such a hard time in the games against Slovakia and Norway was not necessarily on the cards. As group runners-up, they nevertheless secured their ticket to the play-offs, not always quite sovereignly.

Canadians in the tournament after teething troubles

In the meantime, the North Americans seem to have got used to the level at the World Cup. Coach Andre Tourigny, who also coaches the Arizona Coyotes in the NHL, makes it clear that there is a difference between playing in North America and at a World Cup. However, he does not give a rating, but simply states that it is an adjustment to play against European teams. Maybe that’s why the Canadians had some teething problems.

Nevertheless, it remains to be noted that the record world champions have won six of eight games, losing only to the Norwegians in overtime and to the Swiss, who were unleashed in the preliminary round. On the other hand, they have also eliminated two very notable opponents in the Czech Republic and world champions Finland. If the North Americans bring their normal form on the ice, then we look in the duel Canada against Latvia mainly on the odds that have something to do with a Canadian victory.

In the quarter-finals, the game against Finland, after all the remake of the 2022 World Cup final, was a match of equals. The difference was mainly made by Canadian goalkeeper Samuel Montembeault, who delivered a magnificent performance and paved the way for his team to reach the semi-finals. After goals from Jack Quinn, Samuel Blais, Michael Carcone and Tyler Toffoli, the Canadians won 4:1 in the end, rather unchallenged.

The Canada squad:

Goal: Levi, Hofer, Montembeault
Defensive: Middleton, Joseph, Barron, Weegar, Myers, Bear, Hunt
Attack: Glass, McBain, Lucic, Krebs, Laughton, Quinn, Carcone, Neighbours, Crouse, Toffoli, Blais, Veleno, Fantilli
Head Coach: Tourigny

Latvia – Statistics & current form

When you consider that the Latvians were basically already almost eliminated, it borders on a miracle that the Balts are now in a semi-final at a World Cup of Hockey for the first time in their history. In their last group game against Switzerland, Harijs Vitolins’ team needed a point to qualify for the play-offs and conceded a goal with 6:24 minutes to go to make it 2:3. Perhaps that was the key moment for the Latvian team.

Latvia with big improvement

The co-hosts still managed to equalise, defeating the previously unbeaten Swiss in overtime. This was enough for third place in the group and they avoided the seemingly overpowering US-Americans. Sweden were to be their opponents in the quarter-finals and, as the mode would have it, Latvia were also allowed to play in this match in Riga.

It was a match that really had it all. Spectacular moves, a lot of passion and numerous penalties. Latvia took an early lead through Dans Locmelis, but the Tre Kronor equalised in the middle third. But anyone who thought that Latvia would fall apart after that was proved wrong. In the last period it was Miks Indrasis and Janis Jaks who scored the historic 3:1 victory of the Latvians over the Swedes.

Harijs Vitolins’ team has now won six games in a row, beating the Czech Republic, Switzerland and Sweden, among others. This team is definitely a team to be reckoned with and therefore we predict that at least between Canada and Latvia this game could be close for a long time, even if the Latvians no longer have the important home right.

The Latvia squad:

Goal: Silovs, Gudjevskis, Punnenovs
Defensive: Cukste, Balinskis, Cibulskis, Mamcics, Bergmanis, Jaks, Zile
Attack: Krastenbergs, Ri. Bukarts, Daugavins, Dzierkals, Abols, Balcers, Andersons, Dzerins, Indrasis, Ro. Bukarts, Smirnovs, Locmelis, Kenins
Head Coach: Vitolins

Canada – Latvia Direct Comparison / H2H-Balance

It was a fortnight ago that the Latvians got a lesson from the Canadians in the group stage of this World Championship. The Latvians were dismantled 6:0 in their own arena. They will now meet again on Saturday. Another disadvantage for the Latvians: The game will not take place in Riga again, but in Tampere, Finland.

Since 1997, the two ice hockey teams have faced each other in 18 games. The direct comparison is a clear thing for the Maple Leafs, who are 15:2 ahead after victories. Once there was a draw. But, the Latvians’ last win was not that long ago. Before the 6-0 defeat at the current World Cup, the last meeting was two years ago at the World Cup and the Latvians got the upper hand with a 2-0 win.

Canada – Latvia Tip

We don’t necessarily expect this semi-final to go the same way as the 6-0 win by the Canadians in the group stage. Indeed, the Latvians have now developed and feel they are on a mission. Making it to the semi-finals is already historic, but after six wins in a row, it doesn’t have to be the end of the line.

After all, Latvia has already beaten Sweden, Switzerland and the Czech Republic at this tournament. Those who can prevail in such games need not fear the Canadians either.

We can imagine that there could be a Canadian victory with a two to three goal difference. From there, it is conceivable to place a bet on a small handicap victory. There should also be a few goals, possibly even more than 5.5. We combine our assessment and have decided to play the betting odds between Canada and Latvia on a success of the Maple Leafs with a total of more than 4.5 goals.