Can Denmark, the Germany killer, achieve the impossible?
First the DEB team, then Canada – Denmark wants to confirm the prediction of a surprise coup and live up to its role as host. However, the road to the semifinals could not be more difficult. On Thursday at 8:20 p.m., the task is to bring the top favorite of the 2025 Ice Hockey World Championship to its knees.
Denmark has already demonstrated its mental strength in the dramatic battle for the quarterfinals against Germany. The Danish underdog’s recent form also gives it a healthy dose of confidence.
Nevertheless, Canada dominated the group stage of the World Championship almost entirely and certainly has no intention of slowing down in the playoffs. The numerous betting providers with Klarna consider it almost impossible that Canada’s high-quality squad will be eliminated from the tournament in the quarterfinals against Denmark, despite the bookmakers’ clear predictions.
Canada – Statistics & current form
The top favorites from Canada have lived up to high expectations with flying colors in the group stage. According to the bookmakers’ betting odds, it is already a foregone conclusion who will prevail in the quarter-finals of the 2025 Ice Hockey World Championship between Canada and Denmark. Even the best sports betting app is only offering odds of 1.03 at the top of the two-way market for a victory for the Maple Leafs.
This corresponds to a probability of victory of more than 97 percent! Although these odds include a possible overtime or even a penalty shootout, they do not offer any value. In any case, the favorite team led by superstar Nathan MacKinnon and legendary captain Sidney Crosby is going into the match against the Danes with the utmost confidence.
MacKinnon scored in every group game with one exception and can look back on an impressive 13 points from seven games. However, the 29-year-old narrowly missed out on the top scorer spot in the World Championship group stage. Instead, that honor goes to David Pastrnak, who may have gone down in glory with the Boston Bruins in the NHL, but at least has something to celebrate with world champions Czech Republic.
Canada dominated the group stage of the 2025 Ice Hockey World Championship almost without conceding a goal
But back to Canada: As expected, the record world champions didn’t give much away in the group matches. The Maple Leafs suffered only one defeat, losing 1-2 to Finland in a penalty shootout. In the remaining matches, the Canadians made no compromises and took all three points without exception.
Even against Sweden – also host of the 2025 Ice Hockey World Championship and Canada’s biggest rival in the group – they ended up with a confident 3-5 victory, with MacKinnon once again scoring three points. Given their convincing group stage performance, it seems unlikely that Canada’s run will come to an end in the quarterfinals against Denmark, contrary to the bookies’ predictions.
As if the outstanding winning record of the Group A leaders wasn’t enough, the Maple Leafs go into the 2025 Ice Hockey World Championship playoffs with the best goal difference of all participants so far. While the Canadians found the back of the net 34 times, they conceded only seven goals despite changing goalies. No other team in the tournament has allowed as few goals as the proud ice hockey nation.
Denmark – Statistics & current form
Denmark could hardly have made its entry into the quarterfinals more exciting. The Danes already have a mini-final behind them – against Germany, of all teams, in their last group game. The two teams, which were level on points at the time, battled it out in a highly dramatic decisive duel for the coveted playoff ticket.
After the DEB team ended the second period with a hard-fought 1-0 lead, Ehlers scored the equalizer for Denmark ten minutes before the end of regular time. However, the triumph was only sealed after a penalty shootout, in which Germany came away empty-handed and Denmark scored twice.
In fact, it wasn’t just the drama of the final game that attracted attention. On the German side, there was also frustration that Denmark, as the host nation, had arranged a more advantageous schedule for the group stage. While Germany was still feeling the effects of the previous day’s match against world champions Czech Republic, the Danes took to the ice with a full tank after two days off.
Was this forward thinking the deciding factor in the Danish team’s first World Cup quarter-final appearance since 2016? Perhaps. Bookmaker AdmiralBet is so pessimistic about a Danish victory without extra time that bets on an underdog win within regular time will pay out 30 times the stake!
Denmark struggled against the favorites at the Ice Hockey World Championship
Even though they face a seemingly unbeatable opponent in World Championship favorites Canada, Denmark has a satisfactory record to show for itself – at least in the recent past. With a dramatic finish to the group stage against Germany, the Danes have a respectable four wins in a row.
However, to paint an accurate picture, it is also necessary to look at the early stages of the tournament. This provides even more relevant insights into the upcoming match: the hosts have so far been unable to make any headway against the heavyweights of the competition.
A goalless 0-5 defeat against the USA was followed by a 2-5 loss to Switzerland. Things didn’t go any better in the crushing 7-2 defeat against world champions Czech Republic. Apart from their triumph over Germany, the Danish national team has not yet managed to trip up the favorites in the role of underdog. One thing is certain: the Maple Leafs are certainly not an easy opponent.
To make matters worse, only three of the 16 participating countries conceded more goals in the group matches than the Danes, whose fans have seen their team concede 24 goals so far. All this suggests that, despite the bookmakers’ clear predictions, favorites Canada will not find their match in Denmark and will be knocked out in the quarterfinals.
Canada – Denmark Head-to-head record / H2H record
The head-to-head record between Canada and Denmark is rather unspectacular: the two teams last met at last year’s World Championship. As expected, the Maple Leafs left the ice with a 5-1 victory.
In a total of nine encounters, the Danes have only managed one win and one draw against the Canadian ice hockey giants. The remaining seven games were wins for the Canadians. The goal difference of 82:12 in Canada’s favor also speaks volumes.
Canada – Denmark prediction
There are undoubtedly a few Danish fans who, given Denmark’s last four victories, are allowing themselves to be carried away by a glimmer of hope against Canada in the quarter-finals. Back on the ground, however, there are virtually no signs that the Maple Leafs will not make it through to the semi-finals without any problems. It’s not without reason that bets on a Canadian victory would have to be accompanied by a considerable handicap of -3.5 in order to even enter the 1.80 odds range.
Those who still like to take risks could, of course, venture into betting tips for fewer goals than expected, given that this is still a playoff game. Betting provider Bet365 is expecting a high-scoring match and is offering high odds of 2.40 for tips on under 5.5 goals. Betano is offering odds of 1.70 for the less risky option of a maximum of seven goals in the entire game.
However, my focus is on the Canadian favorites winning the final period by at least two goals. Denmark will play with a high degree of caution against the superior ice hockey giants. In the final period at the latest, however, that caution will have to give way to a more courageous offense, especially if they are behind. This will open the door for counterattacks and possibly even an empty-netter.
With this in mind, the Canada vs. Denmark Ice Hockey World Championship tip of a handicap of -1.5 for Canada in the third period is very interesting. Betting odds of 1.95 at AdmiralBet will almost double your stake if successful.
