Will the record-breaking world champions also beat the Czechs?
After the giants’ duel is before the giants’ duel, at least if the names of the teams are anything to go by. With Canada and the Czech Republic, two of the three top favourites for the World Cup title will meet on Saturday.
The Canadians had to put in a tremendous energy performance on the ice in the quarter-finals to make up for two goals in the last two minutes against the Swedes, whereas the Czech national team was less challenged against Germany.
However, we see exactly this quarter-final as the Canadians’ big trump card, because such an experience also welds people together, as you could already see shortly after the winning goal. There is a unity on the ice for the North Americans.
For the Czechs, on the other hand, it’s mainly the first line around David Pastrnak that keeps the flags flying, which might not be enough against Canada in the end. For Canada vs. Czech Republic, our prediction is therefore also a success for the Canadian team.
Canada – Statistics & current form
“Oh Canada” sounds more frequently again at this World Cup, just as it does for Leon Draisaitl’s Edmonton Oilers in the NHL, the last Canadian team there. So it could be a Canadian festival in the coming days and weeks.
But first the Canadians have to get past the strong Czechs, who just showed the DEB team the limits. The North Americans will have to take the first line of the Czechs out of the game.
The Czechs’ first line must be eliminated
However, if the Canadians can take out David Pastrnak, Roman Cervenka and their line, the chances of picking up a win increase exponentially. The two of them are also the best goal scorers of the Eastern Europeans with four goals each.
So it will also be up to the Canadians’ first line of defenders around Ryan Graves to do the job. With his 75 NHL games this season for the Devils (some also successful against Pastrnak), we trust him and his supporting cast to do that, though.
Best Offense in the World Cup
Even if the Czechs manage to score one or two goals through their best forward line, the Canadians could make up for it in the end with their outstanding attack. They have scored 38 goals in the World Cup so far – at least four more than any other team.
That corresponds to 4.75 goals per game, which is why we can also target a bet on over-points for Canada vs. the Czech Republic. A combination of bets on Canada + Over 5 goals promises the best value.
Key Players:
G: Chris Driedger
D: Ryan Graves
D: Nick Holden
LW: Pierre-Luc Dubois
C: Mathew Barzal
RW: Drake Batherson
Czech Republic – Statistics & Current Form
The Czechs had little trouble against Germany from the start, but that was also due to the indiscipline of the DEB team. The Czechs scored their first three goals on the power play.
This shows one of the Czechs’ strengths, but also one of their weaknesses. In the 5-on-5 against the Germans, they did not have the dominance that would have been expected. This has been the case with the Czechs throughout the entire World Cup.
Depth in the squad not outstanding
It is particularly noticeable that their back lines do not have the same impact as those of the Canadians, for example. The first forward line around David Pastrnak is involved in almost all dangerous actions and goals. Only Matej Blümel can contribute with four goals from the back lines.
Thus, we see Team Canada at an advantage especially when the first forward lines on both sides are not on the ice. What Canada can offer here with Lowry, Roy or Silinger, you will look for in vain with the Eastern Europeans.
Offense not yet in the flow
Accordingly, they have only scored 23 goals in the tournament, which is a whopping 15 less than the Canadians have put up so far. That works out to just 2.87 goals per game, almost two goals less than Team Canada.
We think they can score two goals again in the semi-finals, but against the offensively strong Canadians that might not be enough in the end. In addition to betting on Canada, you should also pay attention to the odds on over 5 goals.
Key Players:
G: Karel Vejmelka
D: Filip Hronek
D: Michal Jordan
LW: Roman Cervenka
C: Thomas Hertl
RW: David Pastrnak
Canada – Czech Republic Direct Comparison / H2H-Balance
Of the past six duels, four went to the Canadians and two to the Czechs. This underlines the slight favourite position of the North Americans, which from our point of view increases even more with the pushing quarter-final victory over Sweden.
However, we don’t have to consider direct win bets on Canada, as our tip of choice for Canada vs. the Czech Republic is a bet on Canada + Over 5 total points. This covers both overtime and “only” 5 total goals, as we get our stake back if exactly five goals are scored.
We think it is unlikely that these five goals will not be reached, as they have been reached in all of Canada’s eight games to date and even exceeded seven times. Thus, over-punt bets on Over 5.5 are still a great option.
Canada – Czech Republic Tip
The Canadians were on the brink of elimination against Sweden and still managed to make it to the semi-finals. How often is it that such a team performance pushes the team so much that in the end they win the title.
The best current example in the NHL is the Lightning, who after a heartbreaking final against Toronto then knocked Florida out of the arena four times. So for Canada vs Czech Republic, our prediction is a Canada win and Over 5 goals.
Betting odds on Pierre-Luc Dubois to score another goal in the match between Canada and the Czech Republic are also available as an alternative. We already had this bet on the quarter-finals and Dubois did not disappoint us. He has now scored seven goals in the tournament and leads the ranking.
