Do the Dolphins surprise the Bills again?
Saturday night prime time in the US – middle of the night in Germany. The game, however, is an absolute cracker for both markets: Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins – the top duel in the AFC East.
This means that the top two teams in this division will meet in a direct duel to decide who wins the division. Since the Bills already have two more wins on their record, the division title would no longer be out of their reach if they were to win again.
They are the clear favourites due to their good form (4 wins in a row). The Dolphins, on the other hand, come into this game with two defeats – both away from home as well. On foreign grounds they are also at mixed 3:4 wins this season.
So for Buffalo vs. Miami, our prediction is another win for the Bills, who will thus underpin their claims to the Super Bowl. However, it is unlikely to be quite that high, as the Dolphins also have numerous weapons in their repertoire offensively.
Kickoff of this AFC top duel is on Sunday night at 02:20 in Buffalo. The game can be watched live on DAZN.
Buffalo Bills – Statistics & current form
Four wins in a row and that against good teams like the Lions, Patriots or Jets. You can already talk about top form. The fact that the total number of points did not skyrocket was mainly due to the extremely bad weather conditions.
On Saturday evening, 80% of the weather is expected to remain dry, which could lead to a few more points being scored – but on both sides. Because even the Dolphins can go along with any score on a good day.
Defence really strong lately
The Bills’ defence in particular has made life easy for them lately. They held both the Patriots (10 points) and the Jets (12) to under two touchdowns. If they can now hold the Dolphins to under 20 points, that would already be half the battle for success.
They failed to do so in their first meeting in September (21:19 Miami) and made far too many unnecessary mistakes, especially in the closing minutes. Only two yards away from the end zone, they failed to score a game-deciding touchdown with several attempts.
Although they even got the ball one more time, they remained scoreless and it became one of the most bitter failures in Josh Allen’s football life, as he admitted himself afterwards. This should motivate him and his teammates even more.
Loss of ball often a problem
The Bills have to “thank” their many ball losses for the fact that they are not even better this season. They already have 20 turnovers (11 interceptions, 9 fumbles) this season. The fourth most of all teams.
If they manage to keep this number down on Saturday, they should do justice to their role as favourites. But this is not quite certain. Therefore, betting on over-points for the Bills against the Dolphins is even more recommended than betting on Buffalo – especially with this high handicap.
Key Players:
QB: Josh Allen
RB: Devin Singletary
WR: Stefon Diggs
TE: Dawson Knox
K: Tyler Bass
Miami Dolphins – stats & recent form
The Dolphins have lost their form a little bit. After five wins in a row in the meantime, they now lost twice in a row. The opponents were of course no walk-aways with the 49ers and the Chargers, but these defeats have put the division win back in the distance.
However, they should still make the playoffs if they don’t completely collapse. However, a win in Buffalo against the favoured Bills would immediately give their season a new dynamic and could be worth its weight in gold.
Defence has been so-so lately
While their defence has been solid at times, it hasn’t been the case in recent weeks. 33 points conceded against the 49ers, 432 total yards allowed against the Chargers. That was too much in each case to have a chance to win.
The offensively strong Bills (27.2 points per game) come at an inopportune time, of course. Nevertheless, the Fins are not without a chance, as they can also put up 30 or even more than 30 points on a good day. They have already cracked that mark five times this season.
Low or high scoring game?
The Bills have had two low-scoring games in a row, the Dolphins one. Still, we think the 42 total points the bookmakers are calling for are far too few in this duel of strong offenses.
After all, the Bills score 27.2 points per game and the Dolphins 24.3, which adds up to 51.5 points per game. Thus, the odds on over 42.0 points are clearly to be taken advantage of in Buffalo vs. Miami. There could even be a few more points dropped than that number.
Key Players:
QB: Tua Tagovailoa
RB: Raheem Mostert
WR: Tyreek Hill
TE: Mike Gesicki
K: Jason Sanders
Buffalo Bills – Miami Dolphins Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The last duel took place only in September and went with 21:19 narrowly to Miami. Before that, however, there were seven Bills wins in a row, and they always liked playing the Dolphins. That goes for quarterback Josh Allen as well.
For this reason, the Bills are naturally considered the favourites again for Saturday night. However, the Game Day 3 duel showed that not too much separates the two teams, which is why another close game would not be a surprise.
From their average points scored, a 27:24 win for Buffalo would be reasonable. This is the rarest of cases, but for the Bills against the Dolphins, a bet on over 42.0 total points is still the absolute favourite bet of our choice. Especially since it shouldn’t rain or snow either.
Buffalo Bills – Miami Dolphins tip
That both teams can score a lot of points is no secret. The only question will be whether the weather conditions on Saturday are such that they can make that happen. Currently, things are looking good in that regard.
Thus, for Bills vs. Dolphins, a bet on over 42.0 total points is our clear betting recommendation. Followed by bets on the Bills, for which we would, however, set the handicap a little lower than the betting providers do.
Alternatively, a bet on a Stefon Diggs touchdown is also an option. He has visited the end zone in six of his last nine games, which still corresponds to odds of 66.7%.
