Loose playoff opener for the Bills?
On Sunday night at 19:00 German time, a co-favourite for the Super Bowl, the Buffalo Bills, will make their first appearance in the playoffs. In their Wild Card Game, the franchise around star quarterback Josh Allen will take on the Miami Dolphins. Two weeks after the tragic accident of Damar Hamlin, the home side will once again have their teammate in their hearts and will certainly want to win for him as well.
The chances for Buffalo are of course exorbitantly good, after all the guests from Florida have to do without their starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Presumably, even rookie Skylar Thompson will have to guide the fortunes of his offense, which must be seen as a considerable weakening. Unsurprisingly, there seems to be no alternative between the Bills and the Dolphins. Currently, a handicap of -13.5 is even being applied. The starting position could hardly be clearer.
Since it is not worth placing a bet on the two-way market in view of the one-sided odds distribution, creative ideas are needed to filter out an appealing value. Looking at Buffalo’s recent performances, for example, a prediction on a lot of points from the home team in the Bills’ clash against the Dolphins could pay off. The offensive has been convincing all along the line and was also able to score over 30 points in the last head-to-head duel in Week 15. Can Sean McDermott’s team do that again on Sunday?
Buffalo Bills – Statistics & current form
Even before the season started, the Buffalo Bills were considered one of the hottest contenders to win the title. No wonder, because last year they also started with great ambitions in the NFL playoffs, but were defeated in the Divisional Round by the Kansas City Chiefs in an offensive spectacle with 36:42. Now the AFC East winners of the past three years are aiming for their first championship since 1965.
However, the road ahead is extremely rocky, although the outstanding form of the New York State franchise is encouraging. The last seven matches of the regular season were won. Overall, Buffalo finished the year with a 13-3 record; the match against the Bengals a fortnight ago was not counted due to the incident involving Damar Hamlin.
Bills almost unstoppable through the air
As macabre as it sounds, the events surrounding the safety could make the Bills even more cohesive in the playoffs. In our eyes, they’re tied with the Chiefs and 49ers as the hottest candidate to make the Super Bowl. Especially the power offence is almost unstoppable. Josh Allen and Co. average 28.4 points and almost 400 yards. In the last three matches Buffalo scored 35, 35 and 32 points. The mark of 27 points therefore seems a feasible value in the Wild Card Game as well.
The passing game is the biggest strength of the Royal Blues. Quarterback Josh Allen has one of the best throwing arms in the league, Stefon Diggs is considered one of the outstanding receivers and also the running backs Hines or Singletary always run short routes to catch passes. Add to that a Gabe Davis who is responsible for the big plays that could go well against a very aggressive Miami blitz defence.
Also worth noting is tight end Dawson Knox, who caught six touchdowns on the year. The 6-foot-9, 115-pound colossus is also a hot pick, in our opinion, to score a TD on Sunday. Against tight ends, the Fins’ secondary has pronounced deficiencies, which Josh Allen knows how to exploit. Between the Bills and the Dolphins, the odds for Knox to score a TD are an impressive 2.87.
Predicted Buffalo Bills lineup:
QB: Josh Allen – RB: Devin Singletary – WR: Stefon Diggs – TE: Dawson Knox – K: Tyler Bass
Miami Dolphins – Statistics & Current Form
The joy last weekend was great for the Miami Dolphins. Thanks to an unglamorous 11-6 win over the New York Jets, head coach Mike McDaniel’s franchise secured one of the coveted playoff tickets after all. Under normal circumstances, the Fins would be in with a chance in the post-season, but the southerners are struggling with enormous personnel problems.
The most serious of these is the absence of Tua Tagovailoa, who has been in the NFL’s concussion protocol for around two weeks now. For the second time, the quarterback had to be replaced due to a suspected concussion. The most important franchise player will definitely not return on Sunday. As of now, his backup Teddy Bridgewater will probably not be able to play either, so Miami will have to rely on rookie Skylar Thompson.
Although he led his team to the playoffs with the aforementioned success against the Jets, he has thrown more interceptions (three) than touchdowns (one) over the entire season. In addition, the lack of experience should prove to be a difficulty.
How many breathers does the Miami D get?
With top receiver Jaylen Waddle, who rushed for more than 100 yards in both season duels with the Bills, and running back Raheem Mostert, two other offensive protagonists were unable to practice during the week or only on a limited basis, it is clear why the odds are swinging so clearly in one direction ahead of the Bills’ clash with the Dolphins.
It should also be noted that Miami lost five of the last six regular-season matches, conceding 32 points against the Bills and as many as 33 against the 49ers. The fact that McDaniel’s team has one of the highest blitz rates in the pass rush could prove to be an own goal against Josh Allen, who after all knows pretty well how to leave his pocket, throw good passes afterwards or run himself. In the last meeting, the Bills quarterback managed almost 80 yards per run.
Aside from that, the offense won’t be able to provide much relief, so as the game goes on, the spaces downfield are likely to get bigger as well. Therefore, between the Bills and the Dolphins, we are looking at the odds for a handicap win for the host team as well as the odds for Buffalo to score more than 27 points.
Predicted Miami Dolphins lineup:
QB: Skylar Thompson – RB: Jeff Wilson – WR: Jaylen Waddle (?) – TE: Durham Smythe – K: Jason Sanders
Buffalo Bills – Miami Dolphins Head-to-head / H2H Record
Because the Bills and the Dolphins share a home in the AFC East, the teams naturally know each other very well. There have already been two head-to-head duels in the regular season. In week three, the Fins surprisingly prevailed with 21:19. In mid-December, however, Buffalo returned the favour with a 32-29 victory.
The fact that these two close results only give a limited indication of the chances on Sunday is due to the many absences of the visitors. In total, Buffalo has nevertheless had the upper hand in eight of the past nine meetings.
Buffalo Bills – Miami Dolphins Tip
A total of six Wild Card matches will take place this weekend in the NFL. The clearest starting position is before the duel of the Bills against the Dolphins. Betting odds of 1.12 on the home win imply a pronounced favourite role in favour of the AFC East winner, which clings to several facts.
First and foremost, it is the painful absences on the part of the visitors that complicate the undertaking. In addition, however, the contrasting form curves indicate a fairly clear-cut affair. Buffalo have won seven in a row, while the southerners have lost five of their last six matches in the regular season.
We feel that Josh Allen and his teammates will dominate this matchup. The offense has too much power, too many playmakers and should also benefit from the Miami defense getting few breaks. So between the Bills and the Dolphins, we’re playing the bet on the home side scoring at least 28 points.
