Are the Bills still the preseason team of the hour?
Second preseason weekend and it comes to the duel of the secret favourites for the upcoming NFL season. Thanks to Josh Allen and a top defence, the Bills are even slightly ahead of the Broncos, who also drew a big lot in the off-season with Russell Wilson.
Now in the preseason, however, both top quarterbacks will not yet be in action and yet we will see two of the better preseason teams here. After all, the Bills are 9-1 in their last ten preseason games, while the Broncos are 4-1 in their last five.
Both teams also won their first preseason game this season. The Bills beat the Colts 27-24 and the Broncos beat the Cowboys 17-7, but since the Cowboys are traditionally a weak preseason team, the Bills’ win is a little higher.
Since they also have one of the best backup quarterbacks in Case Keenum, we see them slightly ahead on Saturday. In Buffalo vs. Denver, our prediction is a win for the home team with at least a 4-5 point lead.
Kickoff of the NFL Preseason Game on Game Day 2 is Saturday night at 7:00 p.m. in Buffalo.
Buffalo Bills – Statistics & current form
The Bills are on the verge of a great season. At least if the bookies are to be trusted, as they are at the top of almost every list when it comes to betting odds on a Super Bowl win.
But the Bills have also been the standard-bearer in the preseason in recent years (alongside the Ravens, who have an even longer winning streak). Their last nine preseason games have all been won by Buffalo and they look to continue that streak at home on Saturday.
Keenum or Barkley?
One question for this game should be which quarterback will see more snaps. In Allen’s absence, that was Matt Barkley on Game Day 1. However, we can well imagine it will be the other way around this weekend.
In Keenum, the Bills have a very experienced backup who has been the No. 1 back in the league for years. He still lacks the familiarity with the Bills, however, after only joining the team this season.
Running Game already excellent
Even though both backup quarterbacks were not completely convincing on game day 1 (1 and 2 interceptions respectively), we still see advantages over the Broncos at this position. However, the advantages might be even bigger at another position: the running backs.
Both Zack Moss (12.3 yards per carry) and Raheem Blackshear (2 touchdowns) were convincing on Saturday and almost single-handedly ensured the victory. While the Broncos defence is still a bit stronger than the Colts’, we still expect them to play a big role again.
All in all, there is a bit more to be said for Buffalo. We don’t expect as many total points as against Indy, but the Bills should be able to hold their own in a low scoring game as well. So for Bills vs Broncos, a bet on Buffalo with a handicap of up to 4.5 points is quite possible.
Key Players:
QB: Case Keenum
RB: Zack Moss
WR: Isaiah Hodgins
WR: Quintin Morris
K: Tyler Bass
Denver Broncos – stats & current form
The Broncos started the preseason with an unchallenged 17:7 win against Dallas. They already led 17-0 at halftime, thanks to quarterback Josh Johnson (2 touchdowns). However, it wasn’t their offence that made the difference on this day.
It was their defence, which allowed only one score and that only in the fourth quarter, when everything was decided. They’ll have to rely on that again against Buffalo, as their running game still didn’t work at all.
Running game still with a question mark
While Denver had five different players involved in the running game last week (plus the two quarterbacks), hardly any were convincing. Overall, the Broncos averaged 1.8 yards per run attempt – subterranean numbers.
Stevie Scott did the best, but he only managed to run for a total of 20 yards. The shoe is therefore very much on the other foot at this position and so it will be up to the defence again on Saturday to sort it out.
Low scoring game expected
Due to Denver’s offensive weakness, they’ll try to avoid a shootout. The fewer total points, the better their chances. Thus, the 40 total points should not be cracked in the end. Nevertheless, we do not believe that it will be enough for Denver to win.
So the odds on under 41.5 total points for Bills vs. Broncos are definitely worth considering. However, we prefer bets on a Buffalo win. Preferably even with a half-time/final result bet to make the most of the value.
Key Players:
QB: Josh Johnson
RB: Stevie Scott
WR: Jalen Virgil
TE: Eric Tomlinson
K: Brandon MacManus
Buffalo Bills – Denver Broncos Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
In the last three years, these two teams have only met twice. In Denver it came down to a high scoring game, in Buffalo it came down to a low scoring game. Both times, however, the Bills were victorious as they have been a total of five times in the last six duels.
It could turn out like the 20-3 of 2019 again on Saturday, although we trust Denver to score a few more points. However, we do not expect them to be able to threaten the Bills.
So a bet on a superior home win is recommended for Bills vs. Broncos. Both bets on half-time/final score Buffalo and on Bills -4.5 are possible options. We can also consider a combination with Under 41.5 total points.
Buffalo Bills – Denver Broncos Pick
The Bills are considered the favourites and should live up to that role. The question will be whether they are top there from the start or get rolling later. Since they missed the start against the Colts, we assume the opposite this time and expect a start-finish victory.
So for Bills vs. Broncos, the odds on halftime/final score per home team are our No. 1 betting recommendation. Should bettors still include the Under 41.5 point combination bet by the start of the game, then we recommend it even more.
As a current alternative, we see betting on Under 41.5 total points for Saturday. The Broncos have a good defence and a weaker offence (without Russell Wilson). These are the best conditions for a low-scoring game.
