Will Allen and the Bills get the opening win?
The 38-0 Broncos are coming to town – but the Bills are not afraid. They don’t have to be, because the Broncos’ clear victory against the Chiefs was of course due to the circumstances in the standings. Now in our Bills vs. Broncos tip, the Bills are considered the overwhelming favorites.
But they shouldn’t underestimate Denver either. With Bo Nix, they can score significantly better and more consistently than in previous years, and their defense is in the top three in the NFL in points conceded. So the Bills have to be careful.
In general, the Broncos are still underestimated by many experts. The current handicap of -9 to -9.5 also shows this. Nevertheless, we also expect the favorites from Buffalo to win in the end, although this could be jeopardized again towards the end.
So our prediction for Bills vs. Broncos is a home win for the men of Josh Allen, which could end up being decided by a single score. Nevertheless, the Bills should make it clear early on, especially in the first half, who will go through to the next round.
Kickoff of this Wild Card game is on Sunday at 7:00 p.m. in Buffalo. The game can be followed live on RTL and DAZN.
Buffalo Bills – Statistics & current form
The same thing we said about the Baltimore Ravens also applies to the Bills: This year should be their year. The problem: neither will make it to the Conference Championship Game.
To do that, the Bills would have had to make the number one seed, which they ultimately failed to do. Nevertheless, they can now look forward to the start of the playoffs against what is considered the easiest opponent. With 10-7 wins, Denver had three fewer wins than Buffalo.
Defense not quite as strong as the offense
When talking about the Bills, the first thing that comes to mind is, of course, their powerful offense, which scores 30.9 points per game. It was only in the 48-42 thriller against the Lions that they showed again just how strong it can be.
However, this game also showed that their defense is still a long way from being championship caliber. Allowing 21.6 points per game only puts them in eleventh place in the NFL – which could ultimately be a little too little for the big time. Nine other playoff teams are still ahead of Buffalo in this category.
Tips on Bills partially playable
For the Buffalo vs. Denver game, the odds on the Bills are now only partially playable. In our view, the -9 handicap is difficult to play with, as the Broncos rarely fall apart completely. Besides, it is the playoffs where the Broncos’ good defense counts for a little more.
What does seem wagerable, though, is a bet on the Bills in the 2nd quarter against Denver. Firstly, this quarter often provides the most points in the game and secondly, the Bills will probably give the ball to the Broncos first, which then gives them more possession of the ball in the course of the first half.
Basically, the favorite wins the second quarter significantly more often than would actually be statistically likely. Another point is that the Bills want to show right away at home who is the boss in their own stadium, which also makes a top start for Buffalo more likely.
Key Players:
- QB: Josh Allen
- RB: James Cook
- WR: Amari Cooper
- TE: Dalton Kincaid
- K: Tyler Bass
Denver Broncos – statistics & current form
The Broncos were the last team in the AFC to qualify for the post-season. This is the first time the franchise has made the playoffs since their Super Bowl triumph in 2016, which was actually the second longest dry spell in the entire NFL (number 1: New York Jets).
Few expected this to happen with rookie quarterback Bo Nix, of all people, before the season. But the youngster developed really quickly and ended up with an impressive 3,775 passing yards, 29 touchdowns and only 12 interceptions.
Quarterback duel likely to go to Buffalo
Nevertheless, it is precisely this quarterback position that is likely to decide the game to the detriment of the Broncos on Sunday. On the other side is Josh Allen, who threw only half as many interceptions over the season and also managed an impressive twelve rushing touchdowns.
Of course, experience also speaks against Nix, who will play his first playoff game, whereas Allen will go into his sixth post-season. He has also won his first game in four of his five previous years.
Tips on Broncos hardly possible
Even though we consider the handicap on Denver to be very high, it is still hardly playable. Because if Bo Nix is a bit nervous and makes one or two more mistakes, the Bills could punish this immediately and quickly pull away.
After all, the Bills have already secured 16 interceptions and 16 fumbles this season. So there is a danger lurking for Denver here, who should score well offensively – but defensively Buffalo will hardly be able to keep them under 25 points.
Thus, in the Bills vs. Broncos game, the betting odds on over-points are also an outsider option as long as they do not rise significantly above the 45 total points. From over 50 total points, we would no longer recommend them.
Key Players:
- QB: Bo Nix
- RB: Javonte Williams
- WR: Courtland Sutton
- TE: Adam Trautman
- K: Wil Lutz
Buffalo Bills – Denver Broncos head-to-head record
The head-to-head over the last ten years favors the Bills 3-1. However, the Broncos were able to win the last meeting in 2023. At the time, Allen also threw two interceptions, which ultimately made the difference.
However, Allen is much more confident this season when it comes to handling the football. Only six interceptions speak for themselves. So we do not see turnovers as a problem for the Bills here.
Only the Bills’ sometimes faltering defense could make this match tighter. That doesn’t make choosing the bets easy, although Buffalo should come out on top in the first and even more so in the second quarter. So our prediction for Buffalo vs. Denver in the second quarter is that the Bills will win this one comfortably.
Buffalo Bills – Denver Broncos Tip
These high handicaps make it difficult to handicap both the Ravens and Bills games. An alternative in both cases is to bet on victory + over-points, although we favor other odds even more for Buffalo against Denver.
So for Bills vs. Broncos, a bet on the Bills in the second quarter at -2.5 is our bet of choice. This quarter often goes to the home team, especially if they are also the favorites.
Alternatively, player bets are also possible. We see two Bills players in particular with good chances of scoring: Josh Allen and James Cook. Depending on the betting provider, the odds are better for one or the other here – however, both have already scored over 10 rushing touchdowns this season (12 and 16).
