Waspo only outsiders
The annual highlight of water polo is on the agenda from Thursday to Saturday in Belgrade, at least as far as the clubs’ competitions are concerned. In the Serbian capital, so to speak in the stronghold of this sport, the Final Eight of the Champions League will take place. On Thursday, the four quarter-finals will be played and German champion Waspo Hannover will be among them.
The Lower Saxons will face Italian club AN Brescia in their quarter-final, who have already won the LEN Euro Cup four times, which is comparable to the Europa League in football.
The participation in this Final Eight of the top teams in European water polo is already a great story for Karsten Seehafer’s team. Therefore, one should not be so presumptuous as to think that it might even go all the way to the semifinals. Before the match between Brescia and Hanover, the forecast is more than clearly in favour of a victory for the Italians.
Whatever the outcome of this quarter-final. The Lower Saxons have three games in any case, because all places will be played out in Belgrade. Perhaps the German champions will manage a surprise in the Serbian capital. In the duel between Hannover and Brescia, however, we are clearly leaning towards a clear victory for the Italians.
Brescia – Statistics & current form
Alessandro Bovo is a legend in Italian water polo. As a player he was World Champion, European Champion and Olympic Champion with the Italian national team. As coach of the Associazione Nuotatori Brescia, he managed to break through the phalanx of the record champions Pro Recco when they brought home the Italian championship for the second time overall last year.
To the Final Eight as group winners
This season, however, things were set right in Serie A when Brescia lost out to Pro Recco 2-1 on aggregate in the final play-offs. In the decisive match last Saturday, Brescia lost 5-2 at the champions, a result more familiar from football or ice hockey, but one that also illustrates that the Italians are extremely strong defensively.
Alessandro Bovo’s team also proved its qualities in the premier league, securing the group win ahead of Ferencvaros Hungary. Even before the defeat in Budapest on the last matchday, Brescia could no longer be ousted from the top of the table. That Serie A is also extremely strong is made clear by the overall balance of the last few weeks.
AN Brescia has actually only won three of its last eight games. Nevertheless, the Italians go into this quarter-final as crystal-clear favourites. If they have managed to put the final defeat in the national championship behind them and not think too much about a revenge against Pro Recco, then the odds on a success for the Italian runners-up in the duel between Brescia and Hannover should be played.
Predicted line-up of Brescia:
Tesanovic, Giannaza – Dolce, Presciutti, Constantin Bicari, Lazic, Vapenski, Renzuto Iodice, Gianazza, Alesiani, Luongi, di Somma, Gitto – Coach: Bovo
Hannover – Statistics & current form
For the time being, it could be the last time that Waspo Hannover will be involved in the Final Eight of the Champions League. Seven key players have already confirmed that they will leave the club after this season. It will be difficult to continue the performances of the last few years. So the Lower Saxons are taking this tournament in Belgrade as it is, namely as the icing on the cake of an outstanding season.
Waspo in final form
Waspo was convincing both in the top division, where they finished fourth in a tough group and left stronger teams like Jug Dubrovnik or OSC Budapest behind, and in the national competitions. Not for nothing did they secure the double of cup victory and German championship. For the third time in a row, Hannover is the national title holder.
Accordingly, Karsten Seehafer’s team travels to Belgrade with a very good feeling. In the last nine games, Waspo only conceded one defeat. Maybe that’s why the odds on a win for the German title holders are not quite as high as one might have thought in the run-up. Nevertheless, between Brescia and Hannover, the prediction has to go to a victory for the Italians.
The Lower Saxons will have to make sure that they don’t make too many easy mistakes, because these are punished immediately by a top team like the Italian runners-up. With a strong defence, a lot of creativity will be needed in attack. In any case, everything has to go right if Waspo wants to keep the quarter-finals even somewhat open on Thursday.
Predicted line-up of Hannover:
Schenkel, Götz – Corusic, Macan, Real, D. Brguljan, Radovic, Muslim, Nagaev, Kubisch, M. Brguljan, Schütze, Winkelhorst – Coach: Seehafer
Brescia – Hannover Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Only five times have the water polo teams of AN Brescia and Waspo Hannover met in the pool. The Lower Saxons still won the first match in 2017. After that, there were four wins in a row for the Italians, who have thus gained a clear advantage in the direct comparison. Above all, it has recently become clear that the difference between the two teams is now enormous.
Last year, both teams also met in the top flight. In the group phase, Brescia won twice with an eight-goal difference. In their own pool, the Italians first won 19:11. In the return match in Hanover, the Lower Saxons then conceded a 10:18 defeat, so we have to assume a relatively large number of goals on Thursday, too.
Italy Brescia – Hannover Tip
It is indeed a very strong performance by Waspo Hannover to have qualified for the Final Eight in sporting terms. Apart from that, however, expectations should be kept low. Anything other than eighth place would be a surprise. Even though they have lost only once in the last nine games, we should not expect a victory in Belgrade.
AN Brescia, on the other hand, is one of the favourites for the title. The Italian runners-up won their group in the preliminary round and narrowly missed out on the Italian championship, mind you against Pro Recco in the final, arguably the best team in the world right now.
It is difficult to judge the form of the Italians with the strong opponents in the last weeks. However, the direct comparison against Waspo clearly speaks for ANB. The last four duels all went to Alessandro Bovo’s team, most recently even twice with an eight-goal difference. That’s why we decided to play the betting odds on an Italian handicap win (-3.5) between Brescia and Hanover.
