Will the Bruins take home-ice advantage in Game 7?
That’s it – that’s what we all want. Such 7th games are the salt in the soup of the NHL playoffs and in our Bruins vs. Maple Leafs betting tip, two absolute traditional teams will meet at the TD Garden.
Besides the Celtics, the Bruins are (once again) Boston’s big hope for a Major League title, but they are in danger of failing again. They already lead the series 3-1 and yet they have to go into that darn seventh game
They’re lucky: they have home ice and then top scorer Auston Matthews is in danger of missing out again. After all, he was the NHL’s top scorer in the regular season with 69 goals and would be a huge loss for the Canadiens.
For this reason, our prediction for Boston vs. Toronto is also a home win for the Bruins, who would thus avoid the debacle. Another very likely thing here is under-goals, as the six-goal mark has not been surpassed once in this series
Boston Bruins – stats & current form
This brings back memories of the previous season. The Bruins also led 3-1 in the first playoff round, only to lose to the Florida Panthers in seven games. Another exciting parallel: they also had home ice in both Game 5 and Game 7.
Nevertheless, we don’t expect another humiliation. Why? Firstly, because the Bruins clearly have the better defense and secondly, because they don’t have to play Auston Matthews. Without him, the Leafs are a completely different team and much more inefficient
The head has to be in the game
In order for the Bruins to survive this situation, however, they have to be at their best. They should completely tick off last year and ideally learn their lessons from it. They were 2-0 down quite quickly and therefore under additional pressure.
Especially in this series, the first goal is crucial. As there are few goals on average, every goal counts even more. On average, only 4.5 goals are scored in the series – and we expect this to be the case again in Game 7.
So the odds of under 6.5 or even under 5.5 goals for Bruins vs Lefas are definitely one of our clear betting recommendations
Tips on Bruins to be favored
However, we can also combine these under points with a Boston win to really drive up the value. Because statistically speaking, there should be very little to play for on Saturday. The Bruins are ahead in goals scored (2.67 to 1.83), in pretty much all defense stats and on the power play (40.0% to 5.0%).
The only real statistic where they are behind is in face-offs (43.6% to 56.4%). But luckily for them, this is also the least relevant statistic of those listed here.
Key Players:
- G: Jeremy Swayman
- D: Matt Grzelcyk
- D: Charlie McAvoy
- LW: Jake Debrusk
- C: Pavel Sacha
- RW: David Pastrnak
Toronto Maple Leafs – Statistics & current form
The Maple Leafs have made a comeback – but not quite yet. The momentum is now on their side, but nothing more. Because it’s doubtful that Auston Matthews will make it back on the ice for Game 7.
If they do somehow get him fit, he will almost certainly not be at 100%. Plus, it’s back to the frenetic TD Garden against a fired-up Bruins team that’s considered one of the toughest in the league
Leafs have to be physical
The Leafs already got a first impression on Thursday, when the Bruins gave up a total of 72 hits against Toronto – an absolute series record. Game 7 will be similar, and it’s all about keeping your head down and fighting back.
In Game 6, the Leafs gave up 15 fewer hits, which is quite a lot at the NHL level. We think Toronto’s best chance is to keep the game low scoring. The two games in which there were under 3.5 total goals were won by the Leafs.
As soon as over 5.5 total goals were scored, Boston won every time. In the end, we expect another low-scoring game, as is characteristic of seventh games. Whether it will be enough for the Leafs in the end, however, remains questionable
Bets on Toronto not recommended
This is why we would avoid betting on the Leafs, despite all the momentum. Why? Because they simply had a lot of match luck in the last few games – they were actually the better team only once.
In addition, the Bruins will want to make up for their 3:4 defeat last year and the Maple Leafs are no great Game 7 experts themselves. They have lost all of their last six playoff series that went to a deciding game.
So for Boston vs Toronto, a bet on the Bruins is the better option. Three of the Leafs’ Game 7 losses in the last twelve years have also come against the Bruins.
Key Players:
- G: Joseph Woll
- D: Morgan Rielly
- D: Ilya Lyubushkin
- LW: Tyler Bertuzzi
- C: Max Domi
- RW: Mitch Marner
Boston Bruins – Toronto Maple Leafs head-to-head comparison / H2H record
3:3 is the score in this series and it shows that both teams are on an equal footing. They were also only one place apart in the Atlantic Division in the regular season, with the Bruins scoring a total of seven points more.
We now also see this slight advantage for Game 7, because not only has Boston had the slightly more consistent play over the season, they also had the better defense. And this is literally “decisive” in such deciding games.
In the regular season, they conceded 0.48 goals less per game, in the playoffs now it’s even 0.84. That’s why the odds on a Boston win in Bruins vs. Leafs are somewhat more recommendable here
Boston Bruins – Toronto Maple Leafs betting tip
Yes, the Bruins squandered a 3-1 lead last year. But the Leafs have accomplished this feat several times in recent years. In that respect, both teams certainly have those negative thoughts somewhere in the back of their minds.
However, we think the Bruins are mentally strong enough that their superior class will prevail at home. So for Bruins vs. Leafs a bet on Boston in combination with under 6.5 goals is our clear betting recommendation number 1 here:
Alternatively, pure under-goal bets are of course also an option. The last two games (3.0 goals on average) have shown what we can expect in Game 7. A tough defense battle
