Do the Bonn side actually pull off the miracle from the Hardtberg?
Even before the start of the series in this year’s play-off semi-finals in the German Basketball Bundesliga, hardly anyone would have thought it possible that Bonn and Bayern would go into a fifth and thus decisive match. However, anyone who would have bet on the series coming back to the Hardtberg after the Euroleague Top Eight team had taken a 2:0 lead in the meantime could have collected exorbitantly high prices.
After two away wins by FCB, the Telekom Baskets in turn struck back with two victories at the Audi Dome and now actually have a chance to reach the final of the German championship in front of their home crowd. The beneficiary of the long and exhausting semi-final series, however, is clearly ALBA Berlin, who, according to the odds, are the clear favourites to win the title before Game 5 between Bonn and Bayern.
However, we focus on the by far most exciting series of the current playoffs and shed light on various aspects in the following paragraphs. Will MVP Parker Jackson Cartwright once again be in top form? Will the Magenta team once again score at a high percentage from the outside? Can Andrea Trinchieri once again squeeze the maximum out of his stars who are not playing at the highest level? Questions upon questions. The answer can be found live on Sport1 and MagentaSport on Wednesday evening from 8:30 p.m.
Bonn – Statistics & current form
The fans of the Telekom Baskets from Bonn just can’t stop raving this season. Whereas last season was one of the worst in the club’s history, the summer’s upheaval has paid off. Two names in particular are emblematic of the outstanding season of the Rhinelanders, who won 26 of their 34 games in the main round and thus entered the playoffs in second place.
On the one hand, of course, we are talking about Parker Jackson-Cartwright, the undersized point guard, who enraptured the entire league with his quick first step, his incredible crossovers as well as his streaky distance throw and was not voted MVP (Most Valuable Player) for nothing. On the other hand, the work of head coach Tuomas Iisalo cannot be overestimated. The coach of the year was also the one who gave his protégés the right words of advice in the end.
PJC should get it right
If it looked like the Telekom Baskets lacked maturity and punch in important situations against a hard-nosed Euroleague team against the favourites Munich, the second-placed team in the main round has impressively proven twice in a row that they are clutch. In Game 3, the Baskets won with a two-point difference; in Game 4, PJC, Javontae Hawkins and Co. also kept their nerves in the decisive phases, executed their moves and scored very well from outside.
At the latest after the two away victories, the Iisalo team must be on the bill. In any case, we are not averse to betting on the first home win in this series between Bonn and Bayern. The arguments are the outstanding team chemistry, the returned faith, the swept momentum as well as the strength of form of the individualists.
If the Baskets get as many offensive boards as they did recently in the Audi Dome, manage to get into transition after a defensive rebound and achieve a passable rate from beyond the three-point line again, the big surprise beckons in the form of a final appearance by the supposed underdogs, who have long since stopped playing like one.
Projected line-up of Bonn:
PG: Parker Jackson-Cartwright
SG: Skyler Bowlin
SF: Karsten Tadda
PF: Javontae Hawkins
C: Michael Kessens
Bayern – Statistics & current form
While the Bonners are riding a wave of success and have virtually nothing to lose, FC Bayern Basketball is threatened with adversity. A premature elimination in the BBL semi-finals would cause sheer horror in Munich considering the high expectations and would certainly have consequences. Consequently, there is no doubt that the greater pressure lies with the guests, who are nevertheless favoured according to the odds before the 5th game between Bonn and Bayern.
However, the distinctness of the favourites’ role has suffered noticeably. No wonder, because as a steeled Euroleague team with probably the highest budget in the Bundesliga and actually the most experienced stars, Andrea Trinchieri’s team actually managed to give away two match points in front of their home crowd. Instead of preparing with relish for the final series against ALBA, they now travel to Bonn again.
Bayern does not live up to expectations
Bottom line, it has to be said that the FCB, who narrowly missed out on the Euroleague playoffs to Milan and thus only missed out on the Final Four, owes a lot at the moment. With the exception of Nick Weiler-Babb, who carries the team offensively and defensively on his shoulders, too many players are not in top shape.
Vlado Lucic is more concerned with “flopping”, Andi Obst can only be used sporadically due to his non-existent defensive qualities, DeShaun Thomas is more inconsistent than a chameleon when changing colours and even the bigs around Radosevic or Hunter are too harmless in the zone despite size advantages.
Does the FCB’s biggest advantage only exist on paper?
The situation is aggravated by the fact that with Sisko, Walden, Hilliard and actually Zipser as well, many potential key players are still unavailable. This takes the wind out of the sails of the often described advantage of the better squad depth and thus creates a basis to force a tip on the Telekom Baskets between Bonn and Bavaria.
It will be interesting to see how the Munich team now deals with the pressure situation. First and foremost, they have to work better on the defensive board, generally shift up a gear or two in set-play defence and simply make better decisions on the offensive end. The favourite looks impressed. Can they still pull their heads out of the noose in the style of a real top team on Wednesday night?
Predicted Bayern line-up:
PG: Nick Weiler-Babb
SG: Andreas Obst
SF: Nihad Dedovic
PF: DeShaun Thomas
C: Leon Radosevic
Bonn – Bayern Direct comparison / H2H-balance
For the seventh and definitely last time, the two teams will face each other on Wednesday evening in the current BBL season. While in the regular season, the home team was able to claim clear victories in each case (Bonn even with a difference of 35 points!), the semi-final series has so far exclusively seen successes for the away team.
Bayern won the first two matches at the Hardtberg, Bonn struck back with two away victories at the Audi Dome. That has never happened before in the history of the BBL! If this remarkable trend continues, lower quotes will be offered for a forecast on the Munich side before Game 5 in the Bonn vs. Bayern duel.
Bonn – Bayern Tip
More suspense and drama is not possible! The Telekom Baskets and the FCB really take it to the extreme. For only the fourth time since data recording, a team could turn around a 0:2 series deficit. Interesting: The Bonners alone have already managed this on two occasions. A turnaround in the semi-finals against the Bavarians, however, would be another dimension, after all, it is against a top eight team from Europe that was put together in such a way that the championship should be won on a national level in “passing”.
The reality, however, is completely different. Although the betting odds are still swinging in the direction of the star ensemble from the Isar before Game 5 between Bonn and Bayern, the Rhinelanders have come close. In our eyes, it is a 50:50 game on Wednesday night, so the value should definitely be with the home side.
The magenta have less pressure, the momentum and Parker Jackson-Cartwright, who is hard to stop especially in crunch time. If, in addition, the co-producers Hawkins, Morgan or Kessens again bring out such blatant guns as in the Audi Dome, we see no reason why the Iisalo team should not make the impossible possible. They rebound better in many cases, hit higher percentages from the outside and have now also shown that they can close out tight matches.
