Will Bayern suffer their fifth Euroleague defeat in a row?
The start to the new Euroleague season was certainly a very different one for FC Bayern’s basketball team. After a major personnel shake-up in the summer and the appointment of Pablo Laso as their new head coach, the Munich club had actually set itself the goal of closing the gap on the top eight. With a record of just two wins in the first seven matches, nobody at the Isar will really be satisfied. The development process at the southern Germans continues
On Wednesday evening, Bayern will now face Partizan Belgrade. Betting on Isaac Bonga, Andi Obst and Co. to win at home again involves a lot of risk, as the Serbian powerhouse was one of the biggest surprises in Europe’s best basketball league in the previous season. However, Partizan are also currently struggling with a number of problems, particularly defensively. The Black & Whites have one more win to their name than FCBB. Nevertheless, that is enough for ninth place in the standings, while Munich currently have to make do with 16th place
Off the court, we can look forward to a clash between two of the most successful coaches at Euroleague level. Pablo Laso won the title with Real Madrid in 2015 and 2018, while Zeljko Obradovic already has five (!) trophies in this competition.
While the Spaniard is considered a friend of somewhat flatter hierarchies, the now 63-year-old Obradovic comes from the old Yugoslavian basketball school, which taught emotionality as well as a clear management structure, which the coach dictates as the sole decision-maker with authority. In the run-up to Bayern’s game against Partizan Belgrade, it is therefore obvious to predict outbursts on the touchline and loud time-outs
Bayern – statistics & current form
After a promising preparation and a decent start to the season with three wins from the first four competitive games, FC Bayern Basketball has recently become disillusioned. The team of Head Coach Pablo Laso recently suffered four defeats in a row in the German league and the Euroleague and was also beaten by Braunschweig and the completely new Telekom Baskets from Bonn last weekend.
While a relatively weak 4:3 record at national level is only good enough for seventh place in the table, Munich is in danger of losing its grip on the European stage at an early stage. In the Euroleague, FCB have only won two out of seven matches. However, they have also recently suffered four successive defeats in the continent’s most important basketball league, meaning that their current form alone provides sufficient arguments to focus on the odds of an away win for the Serbs in Bayern’s clash against Partizan Belgrade on Wednesday evening
Bayern with the weakest three-goal odds of all 18 EL clubs
The situation is made worse by the fact that Vladimir Lucic, one of the most important players, is still unavailable due to injury. As a forward, the Serbian actually provides the necessary spacing on court and is the number one attacking option, especially at crucial moments.
Without him, however, Bayern only have big men at the power forward position, whose shots from outside do not necessarily have to be respected. This in turn means that the good 1 vs. 1 players such as Edwards, Bolmaro or Francisco do not get the space for their drives. There is no short-term improvement in sight, as Niklas Wimberg, another potential “stretch four”, is also likely to miss out.
The three-point percentage of 27.5% is also critical. No other team in the Euroleague shoots worse from beyond the 6.75m line than Bayern, whose confidence may well have waned somewhat after their recent defeats. Coach Pablo Laso is still searching for his own identity for this team, trying out many things, but despite his immense experience he has not been able to prevent the negative trend of recent weeks. The first critics are even claiming that the quality of the squad is not good enough to dream of a play-off appearance in the Euroleague…
Predicted Bayern line-up:
- PG: Isaac Bonga
- SG: Andi Obst
- SF: Nick Weiler-Babb
- PF: Serge Ibaka
- C: Devin Booker
Partizan Belgrade – Statistics & current form
Last season, Partizan Belgrade played their way into the hearts of many neutral basketball fans in the Euroleague. Starting without any great ambitions, the Serbs not only reached the play-offs, but almost knocked the eventual champions Real Madrid out of the competition. Partizan won the first two away games in the best-of-five series, but then lost three times in a row and ultimately had to congratulate the Spanish champions on reaching the Final Four.
The squad was finally improved in the summer, particularly in terms of depth. Although two top performers, Lessort and Exum, left the club, top-class new signings were acquired in the form of PJ Dozier, Mateusz Ponitka, Ognjen Jaramaz (from FC Bayern) and Frank Kaminsky. In addition, the outstanding US players Nunnally, Punter and LeDay have all been retained. Unsurprisingly, the powerhouse from Belgrade has therefore also set itself the goal of reaching the postseason in 2023/24
Partizan on the rise after victory against Fenerbahce in the EL
Against this backdrop, the start to the season was anything but perfect for the Black & Whites. There were three wins and four defeats in the first seven matchdays. However, the individual results underline the fact that Obradovic’s team is fully competitive. Partizan have won two of their last three matches, with their only defeat coming by one point at Baskonia in Spain. Among other things, they achieved a statement win against title contenders Fenerbahce (85:84) in the previous week, which should definitely have boosted their confidence.
The Serbs’ biggest problem at the moment is certainly their defense. The rotations in man-to-man defense are not yet working as usual, individual players are too easy to beat in one-on-one situations and there is still room for improvement in terms of rebounds. However, the return of defensive leader Ponitka in the previous week against Fenerbahce showed signs of improvement.
Finally, it should be noted that Kevin Punter, probably the best scorer, is currently missing through injury. This is one of the reasons why the odds on an away win between Bayern and Partizan Belgrade are even higher. Nevertheless, we believe in a win for Obradovic’s charges, who we consider to be stronger in terms of quality.
Partizan Belgrade’s expected line-up:
- PG: Ognjen Jaramaz
- SG: James Nunnally
- SF: Frank Kaminsky
- PF: PJ Dozier
- C: Zach LeDay
Bayern – Partizan Belgrade head-to-head / H2H record
The teams have already played each other at BMW Park in pre-season. Bayern won a not really meaningful test match by the narrow margin of 99:95, but the Serbs won the last two competitive games last season by a clear 82:71 in Munich and 83:77 at home. The over line for the upcoming match is also set relatively high, so despite the defensive problems of both teams, we would predict a maximum of 163.5 points in the clash between Bayern and Partizan Belgrade.
Bayern – Partizan Belgrade betting tip
In the Basketball Euroleague, another double game day is on the program this week. On Tuesday/Wednesday and Thursday/Friday, all 18 teams are challenged. Partizan Belgrade visits Munich’s BMW Park on Wednesday and faces ALBA Berlin at home on Friday evening. We expect Zeljko Obradovic’s team to come out on top in both games against their Bundesliga rivals.
However, the experienced head coach will also have fired up his men after losing a league game at home by two points at the weekend. We therefore expect a reaction from the Serbs, who beat Fenerbahce at home the previous week and – even without Kevin Punter – must be considered to be somewhat stronger in terms of quality than Bayern, who have lost four competitive games in a row and also lost four in a row in the Euroleague. Consequently, the betting odds on an away win in the match between Bayern and Partizan Belgrade offer the better value
This is also supported by the fact that the Bundesliga side have not even hit 30% of their three-pointers this international season. The German world champions around Isaac Bonga and Andi Obst are also lagging behind their top form and the long-term absence of Vladimir Lucic cannot be equally compensated for in terms of spacing.
We have therefore decided to place a bet between Bayern and Partizan Belgrade that the Serbian visitors will win the game by at least three points
