Who will win the German duel in the Europa League?

On Thursday, November 14, 2024, the German duel between Bayern Munich and Alba Berlin will take place in the Europa League. In advance, the roles seem to be pretty clearly defined, because while the hosts are currently in sixth place, the guests are in last place in the table. For this reason, the Bayern Munich vs. Alba Berlin betting tip for a home win is obvious. But is the difference in quality really as big as the odds suggest?

If we look at the home and away records of the two clubs, the first Bayern Munich vs. Alba Berlin prediction seems to be confirmed. Away from the cup game against Crailsheim, Israel Gonzalez’s team have not won a single game, even losing to Hamburg Towers. On the other hand, the home side have won all seven of their home games and are therefore extremely strong at home. So this point also goes to Munich and explains why the betting odds are so clearly in favor of a home win.

The most interesting Bayern Munich vs. Alba Berlin odds for a victory of the favorite can be found at the bookmaker Betano, which we have tested. Tipoff is on Thursday at 8:30 p.m. in the SAP Garden in Munich. The match can be followed live and in full on Magenta Sport.

Bayern Munich – Statistics & current form

Bayern can be quite satisfied with their performance in the Europa League so far. Gordon Herbert’s team won six of the nine games and is now in sixth place. This would currently qualify Munich for the playoffs. However, the hosts should not rest on their laurels yet, because with Paris, Monaco, Anadolu Efes and Red Star Belgrade, four teams are lurking in wait for the German team to slip up. So the focus must remain on the task at hand.

In the German Bundesliga, things are also going very well, with Bayern Munich leading the top German league with five wins from their first seven games. However, this is not really surprising, because as reigning champions, defending the title should clearly be the aim. But it’s not as if the host is invincible. They have already suffered five defeats in just nine away games, so Gordon Herbert’s team still has room for improvement.

Bayern Munich with a lot of offensive power

With an average of 82.8 points per game, Munich have the second-best offense in the Europa League. Only Panathinaikos Athens, currently in fourth place, has scored the ball in the basket more often this season. One of the key players in the home side’s offense is clearly Carsen Edwards. The 26-year-old guard scores an average of 20.6 points per game, accounting for around a quarter of all points scored by Bayern Munich. As a former NBA player, his skills are undisputed.

Bayern Munich are neglecting defense

While things are going very well in offense, the problems in defense cannot be overlooked. Gordon Herbert’s team is allowing an average of 80.6 points and is thus even putting up one of the weakest defenses in the EuroLeague. In fact, only two other clubs, Olimpia Milano and Alba Berlin, have conceded more points than Bayern Munich. This is also likely the reason why the home side, despite their strong offense, “only” managed to win six of nine games.

Provisional starting five for Bayern Munich:
Edwards – Booker – Weiler-Babb – Obst – Voigtmann

Alba Berlin – statistics & current form

Alba Berlin got off to a disappointing start in the Europa League, with just two wins from their first seven games putting them in 18th and last place. Even tenth place, which would be enough to qualify for the playoffs, is already three wins away. Furthermore, Israel Gonzalez’s team only managed one of their two wins in overtime, meaning they have only won a single game in regulation time. With this form, the knockout round hardly seems achievable.

Things are going just as badly at the national level, because with only three wins from their first seven games, the guests are only in tenth place in the Basketball Bundesliga. As reigning vice-champions, this is of course not good enough. On the other hand, Alba Berlin only recently managed to beat Ratiopharm Ulm, who had previously won six of their seven league games. The necessary quality is definitely there, but is currently rarely called upon. It will be interesting to see if Berlin can get back on track.

Alba Berlin brings offensive quality

With an average of 80.3 points per game, Alba’s offense is well able to keep opposing defenses busy. In the German league, only three teams have scored more points than the visitors. However, two of them have already played one game more, so that Berlin has one of the best offenses in the German top flight. In the Europa League, however, the guests have not yet been able to really prove this.

Alba Berlin with major defensive problems

While the offense has the necessary qualities to survive in the Europa League, the defense lacks the necessary quality. Israel Gonzalez’s team has the second-weakest defense of all the teams, allowing more baskets than 16 other teams. Especially against Munich’s strong offense, this could of course be a decisive factor in deciding whether to win or lose. So a lot will have to happen for Alba Berlin to leave Munich with a win.

Predicted starting five for Alba Berlin:
Procida – Schneider – Hermannsson – Mattisseck – Samar

Bayern Munich – Alba Berlin Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

In a team-only analysis, the home side seem to have the better chances of winning, but what about in head-to-head comparisons? The answer is similar, with the hosts also leading the H2H comparison with 48 wins from 81 duels. In addition, Munich have also won six of the last nine meetings. This is, of course, another reason why the Bayern Munich v Alba Berlin betting odds clearly favor a home win.

Bayern Munich – Alba Berlin betting tip

In summary of the facts mentioned, a home win seems obvious. However, we believe that this game will be closer than the bookmakers suspect. In the last five games, Berlin have usually only lost by a small margin and only once by a difference of twelve points. We therefore recommend the Bayern Munich vs. Alba Berlin betting tip on a victory for the guests with a handicap of +15.5 points. It was not for nothing that the two teams were in the finals in the summer.

Alternatively, we recommend the Bayern Munich vs. Alba Berlin odds for over 157.5 points in the game. Both teams play very offensively and are therefore capable of surpassing their own average in this top game. If the two teams maintain their scoring average, we will probably end up with 163 or more points.