Who will win the key game in the AFC North?
It’s getting down to the wire in the AFC North, one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL. All the teams there are within two wins of each other, and now the No. 1 and No. 4 teams, the Ravens and Browns, meet head-to-head on Sunday.
For the Browns, this could be their last chance to challenge for the division crown, as another loss would give them three more losses. So the pressure is definitely on.
After both quarterbacks missed some games for different reasons in the last weeks, both should be back on the field on Sunday. With that, we also expect better functioning offenses than lately.
Nevertheless, it is likely to be a 50:50 duel, which makes it difficult to bet on a win. For Ravens vs. Browns, our prediction is a high-scoring game in which the team with fewer mistakes such as fumbles, interceptions or penalties will win
Kickoff of the Sunday Night Game is at 02:20 on Monday night in Baltimore. The game can be watched live on DAZN.
Baltimore Ravens – Statistics & current form
The Ravens are still in first place in the AFC North, despite four rather unconvincing performances. Two clear defeats against the Bengals and the Dolphins as well as two very close victories against Minnesota and Chicago – no application for a playoff spot.
Nevertheless, they could almost secure it with a win on Sunday, which should certainly be motivation enough. In addition, recent memories of the Browns are positive, as they won the last three duels by a clear margin.
Browns defence lies to the Ravens
They also scored a lot of points against Cleveland recently. They’ve averaged 38.7 points in those last three wins, and 42.5 on average last year alone. That speaks to the fact that the Browns haven’t been able to find a remedy against Lamar Jackson and Co. lately.
Although the Ravens offence is not quite as well-rehearsed due to the many changes in recent weeks, they should be able to crack the 30-point mark again on Sunday. Over-points are thus a first bet to be recommended.
Turnover statistics disastrous
Nevertheless, it has been noticeable time and again lately that Baltimore has problems to decide the turnover statistics in their favour. Already 13 giveaways are opposed by only 8 takeaways. Especially the few ball wins are worrying.
Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs alone has as many as the entire Ravens team. However, if they manage to at least balance this statistic on Sunday, then we see Baltimore as the slight favourites at home.
For Ravens vs Browns, the odds on the home team are thus worth considering, even if they do come with some risk. We would therefore favour player bets on touchdowns from Lamar Jackson or Nick Chubb.
Key Players:
QB: Lamar Jackson
RB: Devonta Freeman
WR: Marquise Brown
WR: Mark Andrews
K: Justin Tucker
Cleveland Browns – stats & current form
Things are starting to get tight for the Browns and they need to get out of the habit of following up every good game with another weak one. With a balanced record, it might not be enough for the playoffs in the AFC this season.
They should therefore win the intra-division duels in particular. Last year, however, the Ravens were the Browns’ kryptonite and they really went down in these two duels. An average of 42.5 points conceded does not speak well for their defence.
How will the Browns defence present itself on Sunday?
Speaking of the defence: In 2021, it plays more changeably than Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League and has conceded over 36 points three times in the last seven games, but has also only allowed under 17 points four times. It is hop or top for them on a regular basis.
Since their defence always looked extremely bad against Baltimore in previous years, this could happen again on Sunday. In that case, their offence will also have to be on fire to have a realistic chance. A lot will depend on Nick Chubb in particular then.
Not Chubb as a hopeful
The Browns running back showed outstanding form after his short break, contributing 130 yards and a touchdown against Detroit. Before that against the Bengals it was 137 yards and two touchdowns. Only if Chubb delivers again on Sunday, we see the Browns with a chance to win.
Therefore, a bet on a touchdown by Nick Chubb is our absolute recommendation for Baltimore vs. Cleveland. After all, he has already scored seven of them this season and that despite not playing in every game.
Key Players:
QB: Baker Mayfield
RB: Nick Chubb
WR: Jarvis Landry
TE: David Njoku
K: Chase McLaughlin
Baltimore Ravens – Cleveland Browns Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
In 2020, the Browns were literally run over by the Ravens in both games. 270 rushing yards in the first game and 238 in the second speak a clear language. Cleveland lost both games accordingly.
That’s why the Browns have to stop the Ravens’ running game, which will be difficult now that Lamar Jackson is back. That means their own running game around Nick Chubb will have to pass as well. After all, we’re seeing two of the three best rushing teams of the season on the field on Sunday.
The Ravens average 151.0 rushing yards per game, the Browns even 156.8. The running game will be the trump card on Sunday and for Baltimore against Cleveland a bet on a few rushing touchdowns is an unusual but interesting betting option.
Baltimore Ravens – Cleveland Browns Tip
The running game should be the focus on Sunday and then it will come down to whether Lamar Jackson is in better shape or Nick Chubb. The winner of the running game could also come out on top in the end.
Since we see both teams with good chances here, we do not base bets on the overall winner. Here we can imagine a bet on a touchdown by both Jackson and Chubb for the Ravens against the Browns.
Alternatively, bets on over-points are also an option. A whopping 89 total points were scored in the last duel. This number is unlikely to be reached on Sunday, but the 46.5 should be easily achievable.
