Austria’s must-win in Romania comeback?

In many European countries, the anticipation for the European Handball Championship 2024 is enormous. There is also plenty of euphoria in Austria, which should carry Team Austria into the main round. A win in the first group game is crucial for this mission. There is no alternative to two points at the start. In our Austria vs Romania betting tip, we take a look at whether Ales Pajovic’s team can put the Romanians in their place

We don’t want to get too martial at this point, but the term “group of death” has become commonplace in sport. For the Austrians, this preliminary round group can actually be seen as such. The Romanians are the first opponents they have to beat, but after that they face Croatia and Spain, two teams that could well be in contention for the medals.

That’s why a win at the start of EURO 2024 is hugely important to get through the tournament with a good feeling. Maybe something will happen on the second matchday against Hrvatska. However, the Austrians should not look too far ahead just yet. First of all, the first task must be mastered and at least the odds at our tested bookmakers indicate that there is no way around a prediction of an ÖHB victory between Austria and Romania

The Romanians were once world leaders in handball. But those days are long gone. For the first time since 1996, a Romanian team will be competing at a European Championship and it would be presumptuous not to assume that they will be eliminated in the preliminary round. We expect at least a relatively clear victory for the Alpine republic. What this will be enough for remains to be seen in the following games

Austria – statistics & current form

Only two teams from this Group B make it through to the main round. Even if the Austrians are certainly outsiders, second place is not completely out of reach. Ales Pajovic has assembled a very good and above all experienced team, but with Lukas Hutecek and Nikola Bilyk, they only have two players in the squad who earn their money in the German Bundesliga

The second suit must fit

So Team Austria is well-staffed at the back. With the experienced Robert Weber and Sebastian Frimmel, two first-class outside players are available. The skeleton should be in place, but Ales Pajovic’s squad probably lacks quality across the board. That means they will have to catch a wave to finish in one of the top two places.

It might have been a good thing if they had been able to build a broad chest with a few wins in preparation. However, this plan was a complete flop. After a convincing European Championship qualifying campaign and a win in the Alpine derby against Switzerland, the last few preparation matches have gone in the opposite direction.

The ÖHB men have lost all of their last three games, once against Slovenia and twice against Iceland. Nevertheless, Ales Pajovic was not at all dissatisfied with his team’s performances and now wants to take the positive aspects into the European Championship opener. We think that this endeavor will be successful, but are the odds for a handicap win in the duel between Austria and Romania also interesting?

Predicted line-up of Austria:

• Goal: Häusle, Eichberger, Möstl
• Backcourt: Hutecek, Mahr, Belos, Mittendorfer, Bilyk, Bozovic, Zivkovic, Miskovez
• Left wing: Frimmel, Damböck
• Right wing: Weber, Nigg
• Circle: Herburger, Wagner
• Coach: Pajovic

Romania – Statistics & current form

Between 1961 and 1974, the Romanian men won the gold medal four times at five World Championships. Back then, it was the best team in the world. Nowadays, it’s hard to imagine that the Romanians dominated world handball. They have not managed to qualify for a World Cup since 2011. Their last participation in the European Championship dates back to 1996

Back on the European Championship stage with a successful coach

So something had to happen, and in 2016 the Romanian association bosses brought in Xavier Pascual Fuertes, one of the most successful coaches of the last 20 years. Of course, he also coached FC Barcelona at the same time and won the Champions League three times with them. The Spaniard has since moved on to Romania and, after a short break, has been coaching Dinamo Bucharest alongside the national team since 2021

This year, the national team can also reap the rewards and make its comeback on the international stage. The preparation can be described as decent. The Romanians were guests at the Yellow Cup in Switzerland, where they initially suffered a six-goal defeat against the hosts. However, the Romanians then won clearly against Pan-American champions and Olympic participants Argentina before beating Bosnia, another team competing at EURO 2024, by ten goals.

The Romanians have thus won four of their last five international matches and their form in the test matches makes it clear that they are not completely hopeless going into their first game at the European Championship. For our taste, the odds do not adequately reflect the balance of power. Even if we tend to predict an ÖHB victory between Austria and Romania, we expect a tight game that will only be decided in the final phase.

Predicted line-up of Romania:

• Goal: Iancu, Vasile
• Back line: Cumpanici, Caba, Dragan, Stanciuc, Ilie, Militaru, Racotea, Buzle, Grigoras, Sadoveac, Ghita
• Left wing: Constantina, Negru
• Right wing: Nistor, Tarata
• Circle: Nagy, Rotaru, Dedu
• Coach: Pascual Fuertes

Austria – Romania direct comparison / H2H balance

We take the matches from the last ten years as a basis for our direct comparison. In this period, there have been just four matches between the national teams from Austria and Romania. Austria are ahead in the H2h with 3:1 victories. The last two matches were not even that long ago.

The two opponents had already faced each other in the European Championship qualifiers. Austria not only beat Romania 36:32 and 35:30, but also went on to beat their other group opponents, the Faroe Islands and Ukraine, without losing a point. The Romanians, on the other hand, secured second place and a ticket to Germany with a final score of 4:8 thanks to the better direct comparison

Austria – Romania betting tip

Even if Ales Pajovic was satisfied with his team’s performances in the run-up to the European Championship, three defeats in a row do not exactly ensure that they will enter the European Championship with increased self-confidence, especially as the group in which the Austrians were drawn is extremely difficult and the Alpine republic can only progress to the next round with an enormous effort.

We don’t even consider the opening game to be a foregone conclusion. Although the ÖHB men won by six and five goals to one against the Romanians in last year’s European Championship qualifiers, the latter presented themselves very strongly in the test matches and put the Bosnians, among others, in their place with ten goals. So if we place a win between Austria and Romania with our betting provider Betano on an Austrian victory, we do not expect it to be particularly high

We can imagine that many goals will be scored, but that neither team will gain a decisive lead. We therefore expect an open game and think the Romanians are stronger than the odds suggest. For this reason, we have decided to play the odds on a Romanian handicap win (+3.5 goals) between Austria and Romania