Brady doomed to win with the Bucs

Imagine you’re 27 years old, you’ve only ever been on your team’s practice squad, you’ve never played in an NFL game from the start, and now you’re thrown in at the deep end. As if that wasn’t exciting enough, you’re also going up against the GOAT Tom Brady in prime time on American Christmas Eve in front of millions of TV viewers. All this awaits Trace McSorley of the Arizona Cardinals from 02:20 German time on Sunday night.

The fact that his team no longer has a chance of making the playoffs three days before the end of the regular season should be little consolation in view of the nervousness of the quarterback. For the visitors from the US state, however, there is a lot at stake.

The Bucs still lead their division by one win. Brady and Co. can thus maintain their lead and improve their prospects for the NFL playoffs. However, the prerequisite for this is that the tip-off between the Cardinals and the Buccaneers proves to be a favourite.

Despite the fact that the Bucs are playing a poor season so far and have lost three of their last four matches, the prediction for the away win before the Cardinals’ clash against the Buccaneers is obvious. Arizona has been too weak in recent weeks and months.

The defence in particular gets almost nothing defended through the air, which will be food for thought for the now 45-year-old Tom Brady, who will have to celebrate Christmas without his Giselle and the children for the first time in decades.

Arizona Cardinals – Statistics & current form

You just can’t help but call the Arizona Cardinals’ season one big disaster. Before the start of the season, head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s team was even thought to have a chance at the Super Bowl, but it became clear relatively quickly that the Cards were not finding each other at all in 2022/23. With a disastrous record of only four wins and ten losses, the train towards the playoffs has long since left the station.

To make matters worse, Arizona is without its two starting quarterbacks. Kyler Murray has suffered a serious knee injury and will not return until next season. His backup Colt McCoy is in “concussion” protocol and will also have to sit out this weekend. That, in turn, presents an opportunity for Trace McSorley, mentioned earlier in the introduction, to make his NFL starting debut.

What this personnel inevitably entails is the glaring underdog role in the home game against the Bucs. McSorley has neither the experience nor the individual class to compete at this level.

Problems all around

This was underlined in the previous week when the 27-year-old took the reins after McCoy was dropped. The man who first had to be activated from the practice squad completed seven of 15 passes for 95 yards, but also made two interceptions in short time. It would therefore be very daring to make a prediction in favour of the home side between the Cardinals and the Bucs.

This is not least due to the weak defence of the team from the south-west of the USA. Arizona allows just under 240 yards through the air per game. No other team concedes more points against them and has a weaker red zone defence than the Cards. Even the recently weak offensive formation around Tom Brady and Co. should find suitable solutions against the fragile structure. The only glimmer of hope is JJ Watt, who recorded three sacks last week and could at least put some pressure on the 45-year-old as a pass rusher.

Projected Arizona Cardinals lineup:
QB: Trace McSorley, RB: James Conner, WR: DeAndre Hopkins, TE: Trey McBride, K: Matt Prater

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – stats & recent form

When Tom Brady signed a new contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after his successful era with the New England Patriots, many pundits initially wondered about the move. After the GOAT was already able to bring the Super Bowl to Florida in 2020, it now seems more and more clear why Brady chose this destination: It is the NFC South, which forgives the now 45-year-old quarterback many mistakes.

It is extremely rare for all four teams in a division to have a negative record shortly before the end of the regular season. But with six wins and eight losses, the Bucs actually still have the best winning record in the NFC South, so they are currently given a 77% chance of making the playoffs. We wouldn’t be quite so optimistic, though, as two direct division rivals await in the final two matchdays in the form of the Panthers and Falcons.

Does the GOAT dissect the Cards’ spotty secondary?

From head coach Todd Bowles’ perspective, it’s all the more important to get the must-win job done against Arizona on Sunday night. Since the odds for a win by the favourite in the two-way market in the Cardinals’ match-up against the Buccaneers do not promise any particularly attractive value, we have to look at alternative betting markets.

It is conceivable, for example, that there will be at least 39 points in the course of the game. This over approach is primarily due to the weak defenses, as the Bucs also have deficiencies especially against the run. But even more interesting between the Cardinals and the Buccaneers is the bet that Tom Brady will throw at least two touchdown passes.

On the one hand, this is supported by the fact that he likes to silence his critics with a reaction after weaker performances, such as the 23:34 against the Bengals the previous week. And on the other hand, the already mentioned passing defence of the home side, in which many spaces will open up. Mike Evans and Co. should be able to catch a few passes. By the way, if you want to bet on a TD by the best receiver of the two-time Super Bowl winner, Bet365 offers odds in the range of 2.30.

Predicted Tampa Bay Buccaneers line-up:
QB: Tom Brady, RB: Leonard Fournette, WR: Mike Evans, TE: Cameron Brate, K: Ryan Succop

Arizona Cardinals – Tampa Bay Buccaneers Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

The head-to-head plays no role at all in our considerations for a suitable tip. 2019 was the last time the teams faced each other in a head-to-head matchup. Tampa Bay won 30:27, and before that the Cardinals had the upper hand three times in a row. This weekend, however, the omens are completely different, which is why we decline to take a detailed look at past matches.

Arizona Cardinals – Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tip

It is a good tradition in the USA that numerous sports highlights take place on December 25. In the NBA we look forward to the Christmas Games and also in the NFL things get really busy on Christmas Day. Especially the match between the Arizona Cardinals and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be in the spotlight during prime time in the States.

The betting odds between the Cardinals and the Buccaneers point to a one-sided match in favour of the 2020 Super Bowl winners. This assessment is based primarily on the highly unequal quarterback duel McSorley versus Brady. One will play an NFL game from the start for the first time, the other is a legend par excellence at 45 years of age. The starting position is also in Tampa Bay’s favour. After all, the Bucs desperately need a win to make the playoffs, while Arizona has long since lost its chance of making the postseason.

We nevertheless decided on a different tip before the Cardinals’ match-up against the Bucs. Given the defensive vulnerability of the home side and the expected victory of the visitors, we are placing our six-unit bet on Tom Brady throwing at least two TD passes.