Do the Albatrosses advance in the final series?
For a long time, neutral basketball fans had to tremble, but since Wednesday evening it is certain. Similar to last season, the Bundesliga will see the anticipated 2022 play-off final between ALBA Berlin and FC Bayern. The team that first wins three games in this “best-of-five” series is champion! While it’s all about defending the title for the capitals, the Munich team are looking for their first title since 2019.
Before the start of the aforementioned final series between ALBA Berlin and Bayern, the odds are swinging in favour of the home side. Especially in the first final game, the role of the Albatrosse as favourites can hardly be denied, after all, coach Israel Gonzalez’s team had far more time to regenerate. The FCB, on the other hand, was still in action on Wednesday and had to win the difficult deciding match in Bonn.
In addition to the fatigue factor, it should also be taken into account with regard to the ALBA Berlin vs. Bayern prediction that the hosts have won all play-off games so far this season and have been much stronger at national level than Bayern, who have been more convincing in the Euroleague. The potential of Trinchieri’s team is undisputed, but it has been too seldom exploited recently.
ALBA Berlin – Statistics & current form
Year after year, ALBA Berlin shows that it is possible to be successful with an above-average share of minutes for German players. No other club places as much emphasis on the development of young domestic players as the capital club. Led by experienced top players like Lo or Thiemann, players like Mattiseck, Delow, da Silva, Olinde or Schneider have developed outstandingly in their shadows.
Accordingly, the squad is extremely deep, especially since there is a lot of quality available in the contingent positions, especially when all foreigners are fit for action and Spanish coach Israel Gonzalez has to make a decision about which six professionals will be allowed into the matchday squad this time. Nevertheless, the atmosphere among the Albatrosses is sensational; the team chemistry could hardly be better and the perfectly balanced distribution of roles within the team is unparalleled.
ALBA not to be defeated for more than two months
All these are so-called smart factors that speak in favour of betting on the winner of the main round in the final series ALBA Berlin against Bayern. From a purely statistical point of view, the Euroleague participant has won all of its last 16 (!) competitive games. The last defeat was two months ago. The last lost game against a German opponent dates back to 27 March 2022, so there is no lack of self-confidence, self-image and momentum.
From a tactical point of view, there are also arguments that justify the lower odds on the Gonzalez team between ALBA Berlin and Bayern. In all categories worth mentioning, such as rebounding, the number of turnovers or the assist rate, the reigning cup winners actually have the edge.
However, the team play, which will help the Berliners to crack the good set-play defence of the Bavarians, should be emphasised without a doubt. The flexibility as well as the unpredictability, which means that you never know which player is going to run hot and become the top scorer, will also swing the pendulum in the direction of the home side, who, however, have conceded four of their six main round defeats in front of their home crowd.
Predicted line-up of ALBA Berlin:
PG: Maodo Lo
SG: Malte Delow
SF: Louis Olinde
PF: Luke Sikma
C: Jo Thiemann
Bayern – Statistics & current form
Bayern actually pulled their proverbial heads out of the noose once again and averted a semi-final exit in the BBL. In a series of five away wins in five games, the FCB first led 2-0 against Bonn, but then lost both home games, so that a fifth game had to decide it. However, Nick Weiler-Babb, Vlado Lucic and Co. were right on target and celebrated a deserved as well as sovereign away victory at the Hardtberg.
After the championship went to the capital in each of the last two years, the Trinchieri team is eager to bring the title back to the south. At least in the first game of the final series, however, the chances are limited. The reason is the very short regeneration time since Wednesday evening. The Munich team only returned from Bonn on Thursday and had to travel through to Berlin immediately. The issue of fatigue will therefore play a decisive role in our eyes.
Will Bayern remain unbeaten away from home in the play-offs?
Apart from that, the star ensemble, which at least forced the great FC Barcelona into a fifth game in the Euroleague Playoffs, has not convinced us lately. On the defensive board, the team repeatedly lacked concentration, the three-point quota only increased in the fifth game and the individual performances of the stars also left a lot to be desired.
Of course, the Munich team should not be underestimated, but before Game 1 of the BBL final ALBA Berlin vs. Bayern we dare to predict that the third-placed team in the main round will return to the Isar with a 0:1 series deficit. This is also supported by the fact that six away games were lost in the course of the regular season, but the FCB won the most recent three away games in Berlin. A good omen for Friday?
In terms of personnel, a big burden will again rest on Nick Weiler-Babb, who is currently the team’s best offensive and defensive player. Vlado Lucic should build on his performance from Game 5 against Bonn, the same goes for Nihad Dedovic and Andi Obst. Under the baskets, we don’t necessarily see Thomas, Hunter and Radosevic at an advantage compared to Thiemann, Sikma or even the giant Koumadje.
Predicted line-up of Bayern:
PG: Nick Weiler-Babb
SG: Nihad Dedovic
SF: Vlado Lucic
PF: Augustine Rubit
C: Leon Radosevic
ALBA Berlin – Bayern Tip
Intermittently, it looked like Telekom Baskets Bonn could ruin the dream final between ALBA Berlin and Bayern, but after five intense semi-final games, the Munich side narrowly prevailed 3-2 and are now dreaming of their first championship since 2019.
In the first game of the final series, however, the FCB’s hopes are very high. On the one hand, because the Albatrosse are now on 16 consecutive victories and have not lost in the Bundesliga since the end of March. On the other hand, because of the different preparation time for this duel. As a reminder: The Trinchieri team was still challenged in the Rhineland on Wednesday evening. Exactly 48 hours later, it will continue in the capital. The Munich team has two additional games in its bones.
Regardless of this, we see the advantages with the home side, which is why we can understand that lower betting odds are offered on the home win between ALBA Berlin and Bayern. We agree with this assessment and finally argue that the Gonzalez squad has simply made the better impression recently, looks extremely relaxed and well-rehearsed and has already won the final series in 2020 and 2021, last year also against the FCB.
We therefore play the tip on the home win in the first game ALBA Berlin vs Bayern on the two-way market.
