In the United States, the focus is on the eagerly awaited semi-finals in college football shortly before the turn of the year. Four teams still have a chance to win the coveted title, which in recent years has mostly gone to Alabama.

Since the inception of the playoff era, the Crimson Tide have captured the championship three times, including last year when head coach Nick Saban’s team dominated at will led by quarterback Mac Jones and running back Najee Harris. This season, the record-breaking champions are once again considered favourites, a fact impressively underscored by the odds on the two-way market even before the first semifinal between Alabama and Cincinnati.

Even though the Southeastern team led by playmaker Bryce Young is favoured on paper, the Bearcats from Cincinnati are by no means to be underestimated. After all, the underdogs have had the perfect season so far, have only ever won and now want to continue their own Cinderella story. And maybe the strong defence will help in the end, so that the prediction of a surprise coup between Alabama and Cincinnati will come true.

For all German-speaking football fans, this semi-final and the second match between Georgia and Michigan will be broadcast live on free TV on ProSieben Maxx and DAZN. Kickoff will be on New Year’s Eve at 9:30 p.m. Central European Time.

Alabama Crimson Tide – Statistics & current form

It is quite impressive what a strong football program the College at Alabama has been putting together for many decades. Under head coach Nick Saban, who has held down his well-paid job in the southeast of the country without interruption since 2007 despite various requests from the NFL, numerous top talents have made it into the strongest league in the world.

In the past three years alone, well-known players such as Mac Jones, Najee Harris, Tua Tagovailoa, Trevon Diggs, Josh Jacobs, Calvin Ridley and a certain Derrick Henry have entered the draft and been picked pretty high up there. Currently, quarterback Bryce Young is another youngster who won the Heisman Trophy for the best college player of the year and is being traded as a lottery pick in the NFL in 2023.

Will Young also break down the stout Bearcats defense?

Which brings us to the team’s strengths. Led by the aforementioned Bryce Young, the Crimson Tide are averaging an astounding 42.5 points per game. 6.7 yards per snap and a total of twelve big plays with 50+ yards are additional evidence of the enormous offensive power that makes Alabama the clear favourite against Cincinnati according to the odds.

Still, there are two arguments that tend to suggest that Saban’s team may have a tougher time than expected in the first playoff semifinal. First, John Metchie, the team’s best receiver to date, is out due to injury. For another, the College, which has reached the playoffs in seven of the eight years since their inception, has not always made the most consistent impression this season.

Among other things, they suffered a sensational defeat against Texas A & M, and there were also an unexpected number of one-score games, i.e. close games that were won by a maximum of seven points. In four of the twelve victories, the margin of victory was no more than one touchdown. With an in-form, confident and talented opponent waiting in the wings, we are not averse to betting on the underdog losing by 14 points or less between Alabama and Cincinnati.

Predicted Alabama Crimson Tide lineup:
QB: Bryce Young
RB: Brian Robinson
WR: Jameson Williams
WR: Ja’Corey Brooks
TE: Cameron Latu
K: Will Reichard

Cincinnati Bearcats – Statistics & current form

At this point, the Cincinnati Bearcats have to be given a huge compliment. Before the season, no one would have even begun to expect the underdog to have such an impressive season. Not only did Cincinnati become the first Group of 5 team in NCAAF history to make the playoffs, but the fact that they were the only college to win all of their regular-season games, 13 of them, can hardly be overstated.

Nevertheless, it is obvious that a prediction on the underdog in the Crimson Tide’s duel against the Bearcats is very highly rated and that head coach Luke Fickell’s team is not given a greater chance of reaching the final. After all, the Bearcats played against weaker opponents due to their conference affiliation.

Are the Bearcats still underestimated?

Nevertheless, the number four seeded team should not be underestimated. Especially the defence is capable of making the difference on good days. Coby Bryant, who was named after basketball legend Kobe Bryant and won the trophy for the nation’s best defensive back this season, is an example of this. As a cornerback, i.e. pass defender, the youngster, who is high on the list of many NFL clubs, will play a crucial role, especially since Alabama prefers the passing game with Bryce Young.

But to reduce the surprise team of the year solely to the strong secondary on defence would be presumptuous. On the offensive side, too, Desmond Ridder is an experienced quarterback who is in his fourth year of school and has already experienced a lot in college football.

Exactly that could help the underdogs to avoid simple mistakes in the form of turnovers and to force a close duel, especially through their own running game. If Cincinnati succeeds in keeping its own offence, which scored at least 30 points in ten of 13 games, on the field time and again for a certain period of time, we think a high defeat is rather unlikely.

Predicted Cincinnati Bearcats lineup:
QB: Desmond Ridder
RB: Jerome Ford
WR: Alec Pierce
WR: Tyler Scott
TE: Josh Whyle
K: Alex Bales

Alabama Crimson Tide – Cincinnati Bearcats Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

Because the colleges in the NCAAF are located in different conferences, this duel has actually only taken place five times in the long history. Alabama has always come out on top. However, because the last meeting was more than 30 years ago, the H2h record has no bearing on the upcoming match.

Alabama Crimson Tide – Cincinnati Bearcats Tip

For those who are spending New Year’s Eve 2021 at home and are more in the mood for a sporting highlight instead of the many music shows, Pro Sieben Maxx is the place to be. The first playoff semi-final in college football between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Cincinnati Bearcats takes place there from 9:30 pm. The betting odds imply heavy favouritism for the multiple national champions from the southeastern USA.

Certainly, the Saban squad is loaded with more individual quality, yet there have been a surprising number of games this season (five out of 13) in which last year’s champions have led by seven points or less, or even lost. In contrast, the Bearcats remained completely undefeated and also developed one or two talents that should have a good chance of being picked relatively high up in the upcoming NFL draft.

Apart from that, the match-up could also play into the hands of the supposed underdog, because especially the defence against the pass has worked very well throughout the year. Against a pass-heavy offence around quarterback Bryce Young, who also has to do without his best receiver John Metchie, a very high defeat would therefore come as a relative surprise in our eyes.

We have therefore decided to bet between Alabama and Cincinnati that Desmond Ridder and his team will lose by a maximum difference of 14 points. The bookmaker we tested, Bwin, offers a 1.78 for this, which is worth a stake of seven units to us. Alternatively, it makes sense to bet on a low-scoring first half, as both teams will certainly want to establish the running game. If you even believe in the sensation, you can find a 5.25 for the Bearcats to advance via the Bet365 app.