Arsenal’s Asian tour continues with a test against Newcastle, a preview of what will take place in just over two months in the Premier League. TV rights: Napoli, the champions, earn €14 million less than Inter. All the figures

Inter are behind, then Napoli, Juve, and Milan are tied. The official distribution of TV rights for Serie A 2024-25, as per an internal document of the League accessed by Sports-Predictions, shows a reversal of the standings compared to the results on the pitch.

The criteria for the distribution of revenues are based on the 2008 Melandri Law. As always, the contribution to Agcom, mutual aid to lower categories and grassroots football, and the parachute payment for relegated teams must be deducted from the total revenue. Last year, the total net resources available for distribution to the 20 clubs was €898 million, compared to €1,072 million in the previous season. It should be noted that 2023-24 was the last year of the old marketing cycle: the rising fees distort the comparison with 2024-25, the first year of the new cycle. In addition, the management of individual archive rights has changed since last season. In any case, the total value of audiovisual licenses is declining. Serie A earns less from domestic live broadcasts (DAZN and Sky pay $900 million per year until 2029, compared to an average of $927.5 million in 2021-24) and from abroad ($240 million, compared to $250 million in 2021-24). This explains the reduction in revenue. The distribution mechanism is the same as in 2023-24, when the criterion of minutes played by young players came into force. The pie is divided as follows: 50% in equal parts; 28% based on sporting results, of which 14% based on the league table (11.2%) and points (2.8%) in the last championship, 9.33% based on the results of the last five championships, and the remaining 4.67% based on historical results since the 1946-47 season; 22% in proportion to the so-called “social roots,” represented by 12.54% of paying spectators certified by Siae, 8.36% of the average audience of live TV broadcasts, and 1.1% of the playing time of young players.

the teams—  Inter remains the club with the biggest haul, despite Napoli winning the Scudetto. The Nerazzurri earned €81.9 million, about €20 million less than the previous year when they broke the €100 million mark (but part of this is in the form of archive rights). The Italian champions had to settle for €67.8 million, practically the same amount as in 2023-24. The gap is created by stadium attendance, from which Inter receives a good 17 million compared to Napoli’s 10 million, and by their performance in the last five championships (13 million to 7), while their first place finish in 2024-25 allows the Azzurri to pocket a couple of million more. De Laurentiis’ club is in line with Juventus and Milan, at 67.7 and 67.3 million respectively, also down by around 20 million compared to a year ago due to lower overall revenues and different management of the archive. They are followed by Roma (61.2), Lazio (55.6), Atalanta (53.7), and Fiorentina (52.1). After its exploit in 2023-24, Bologna drops to 43.7 million. Below the 40 million mark are Torino (38.6) and Genoa (37.5), followed by all the others. Parma wins the ‘prize’ for the greatest use of young players, although the amount is just 1 million, because the incidence of that item is minimal. At the bottom of the TV rights table are the teams relegated to Serie B, namely Empoli (27.3), Monza (25.6), and Venezia (25.5). The ratio between the first and last is 3.2 to 1: Inter earns more than triple what Monza and Venezia do. In 2017-18, the last season before the Melandri reform, the ratio was 4.4 to 1. The gap has therefore narrowed, although the ‘democratic’ models of the Premier League (1.6 to 1) and the Bundesliga (2.4 to 1) remain far away.

ue (the two teams will face each other in the league on September 28). This time, however, the setting is the National Stadium in Singapore, where the Gunners faced and beat Milan last Wednesday thanks to a goal from Saka (1-0). Mikel Arteta’s men then lost the penalty shootout – which would have been played regardless – despite three saves from Kepa, who had just arrived from Chelsea along with winger Madueke.
Overall, it was a good performance from Arsenal in their second friendly of the season after a test in England against Watford. Odegaard and his teammates created numerous scoring chances (23 shots in total compared to three for the Rossoneri) and the new signings also shone, including former Real Sociedad midfielder Zubimendi. At the moment, however, the fans’ attention is focused on the Gyokeres deal: the striker who scored a barrage of goals for Sporting is about to officially become a Gunner.

Newcastle and the Isak question

The long soap opera is over, with Arteta finally able to call upon a striker of the Swedish’s caliber, the kind of finisher he has been sorely lacking in the last two seasons.

Meanwhile, former Valencia player Mosquera has also arrived and is expected to start against Newcastle. At the Magpies, however, there is a certain tension in the air: striker Isak did not travel to Asia for the tour, officially due to a minor thigh injury. In reality, the Swedish striker will most likely no longer wear black and white: after interest from Arab clubs, a huge offer has reportedly arrived from Liverpool, who are ready to shell out something like $170 million to snap up the former Real Sociedad center forward.

Newcastle, in any case, must do better than a week ago, when they were literally beaten up by Celtic (4-0) in their first friendly of the season.

Odds comparison

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The prediction

The two coaches will use this test to continue experimenting while giving the result the importance it deserves. Newcastle, however, must make up for their embarrassing performance against Celtic: a reaction is expected from the Magpies in a match that should see at least one goal from each side. It would be the first time in the last four meetings between these two teams that there has been no goal scored.

Probable line-ups for Arsenal-Newcastle

ARSENAL (4-3-3): Kepa; White, Mosquera, Kiwior, Lewis-Skelly; Odegaard, Zubimendi, Merino; Saka, Havertz, Trossard.
NEWCASTLE (4-3-3): Pope; Trippier, Botman, Burn, Targett; Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes, Willock; Barnes, Osula, Gordon. POSSIBLE RESULT: 2-1