Will the Basques lead in Herning, Denmark?
Danish teams really don’t have it easy in European competitions at the beginning of the year. Because the domestic Superliga does not return from the winter break until next weekend, the international representatives are virtually forced to perform right away without rhythm and competitive toughness. In January, FC Midtjylland managed this quite well on the last two matchdays of the Europa League group stage.
At first glance, the betting odds seem a bit one-sided. For the La Liga club to advance, most bookmakers are only offering a top quote of 1.20. And that despite the fact that the hosts only lost one home game in the league phase. Meanwhile, the Alguacil team only managed four points from four away games and are also playing their fifth (!) midweek game in a row. Of course, this aspect must also be taken into account when predicting the outcome of the game between Midtjylland and Real Sociedad.
Those who might therefore believe in a tired away team, which also has to travel over 2,000 kilometers, will find odds of 3.80 on NEO.bet for the home team to win the first leg between Midtjylland and Real Sociedad. The officially whitelisted betting provider in Germany impresses on the one hand with the option of placing tax-free combo bets.
Midtjylland – Statistics & current form
Midtjylland have reached the knockout phase of the Europa League for only the third time. However, the Danes have never been able to eliminate an opponent. In 2015/16 they lost to Manchester United, in 2022/23 to Sporting Lisbon. This time, too, the players from central Jutland are seen as outsiders. High odds of 3.95 are being offered by Bet-at-Home for the team of coach Thomas Thomasberg to advance to the last sixteen before the first leg against Real Sociedad.
Midtjylland are only playing their third competitive game this year
One of the reasons why the team from Herning are not considered particularly strong contenders is the fact that the Red and Blacks have only played three competitive matches since the beginning of December – all three in the Europa League. The Danish Superliga has been in a winter break since December 1, which is why the northern Europeans have had to prepare for the European competition restart exclusively with test matches.
All the more positive were the four points that the team, currently in second place in the domestic league, managed to take from the games at Ludogorez Rasgrad (2-0) and at home against Fenerbahce (2-2). However, with Real Sociedad, FCM now faces a different challenge in the play-offs, with only one of the four home games won. They were unable to claim maximum points against TSG Hoffenheim (1-1) and Eintracht Frankfurt (1-2).
The Danes are generally very defensive, as is evident from their goal difference of 9-9 after eight matches in the Europa League preliminary round. Only in one of the eight games mentioned did more than three goals fall. It seems rather unlikely that a knockout first leg, of all things, in which caution is a regular companion, will be particularly high-scoring. As a result, the betting odds for under 3.5 between Midtjylland and Real Sociedad can be taken as a basis for any match combos.
Predicted Midtjylland lineup:
Real Sociedad – statistics & current form
In recent years, November has always been the month in which long-time coach Imanol Alguacil extended his contract with Real Sociedad. Currently, however, fans are still waiting in vain for an extension of their popular coach’s contract. This does not seem certain at the moment, after media reports recently increased that the football coach is in conflict with the club’s decision-makers. The slight unrest has also had a negative impact on the team. However, last week the team finally managed to turn things around.
Real Sociedad have obviously recovered
Real Sociedad deservedly beat Osasuna 2-0 at home in the Copa del Rey quarter-finals and followed that up with a 2-1 win over Espanyol Barcelona in La Liga at the weekend. However, the Basques have lost three consecutive away matches. This negative streak is surprising given that “La Real” is still the best defensive team in the Spanish top flight, having conceded only seven goals in eleven La Liga away games (4-2-5). Incidentally, the blue-and-whites also conceded seven goals in the four away games in the EL League phase.
But since I am convinced that the Imanol XI can shift up a gear or two in the knockout phase, my prediction is definitely in favor of the Basques, who finally want to win again after 13 (!) knockout games without a win in European competition (0-4-9). Not at any price, though, because despite their young average age, RSSS has a certain amount of experience on the international stage and will not make the mistake of naively running into their own destruction.
A focused performance in Herning could ultimately mean that a prediction of a goalless first half for the hosts or even a clean sheet for the favorites from San Sebastián pays off before the Midtjylland vs. Real Sociedad game.
Expected Real Sociedad line-up:
Midtjylland – Real Sociedad head to head / H2H record
This will be the first meeting between these teams. No wonder, because Midtjylland will actually face a Spanish representative in European competition for the first time on Thursday. Real Sociedad also have no previous encounters with Danish clubs in their statistics.
Midtjylland – Real Sociedad Tip
In the last 24 duels between Spanish and Danish clubs, the northern European representatives have only managed to win twice. These two successes, however, date back 15 years. On Thursday evening, a La Liga club is once again ahead on paper. Real Sociedad is already favored in the playoff first leg in Herning and wants to solve the ticket for the last 16 at home by next week at the latest.
Because a win in the first leg is not absolutely necessary for the frequent players from the Basque Country, who are playing their fifth consecutive week of English, I am refraining from betting on the three-way market in my preferred approach. However, at least a draw should be enough for the better-quality blue-and-whites. I am therefore betting on the X2 & Under 3.5 at maximum odds of 1.66 with seven units on Midtjylland against Real Sociedad.
