Will Benfica repeat their away win in the principality?

Half of the teams in the last 16 of the Champions League will have played ten (!) matches in the Champions League by the time the round of 16 starts. The reason for this, in addition to the newly introduced eight-match league phase, is the implementation of the playoffs. These can now involve clubs from the same country, but also teams that have already faced each other in the league phase. For example, the impressions from the preliminary round match between Monaco and Benfica Lisbon in November are included in the tip for Wednesday evening.

In the course of the fifth matchday, the Portuguese triumphed deservedly 3-2 in the principality and thus landed one of three away wins in the league phase. Among other things, it seems worthwhile to consider another prediction for the eagles before the Monaco vs. Benfica Lisbon playoff first leg. The current rather weak form of the Monegasques, who have already allowed themselves a few slip-ups in the calendar year 2025, also speaks in favor of this.
If you still want to bet on home success for Adi Hütter’s team in the run-up to the game at the Stade Louis II, you can get the highest odds on the Bet365 app between Monaco and Benfica Lisbon. The offered 2.37 implies a 41% probability and is therefore subject to a certain risk. After all, the industry leader from the UK scores with great bonus promotions for the premier league and with the classic Bet365 welcome bonus, which automatically doubles the first deposit of up to 100 euros.

Monaco vs. Benfica Lisbon Forecast AI

The Monaco vs. Benfica Lisbon AI forecast is based on xG values, which the betting base AI lady, called “BETSiE”, calculates with the help of a lot of data. In the aforementioned French-Portuguese comparison on Wednesday evening, the values are 1.73 to 1.44 in favor of the Monegasques, who are given a 44.5% chance of winning by the artificial intelligence. If you add up the xG numbers, you can even expect more than 3 goals (3.17), making the Asian Over 3.5 the hottest AI tip for the first leg between Monaco and Benfica at 2.10 at Bet365.

Monaco – Statistics & current form

It was thanks in no small part to the strong first half of the league phase that the 17th-placed team secured a ticket for the playoffs. The Monegasques recorded ten of their total of 13 points on the first four matchdays, before only managing one win (1-0 against Aston Villa) in the next four matches and losing the other three encounters. Worryingly, they conceded three goals in each of the three defeats. Only three clubs in the top 24 of the Champions League have conceded more goals than the young team of coach Adi Hütter.

Monaco has slowed down considerably compared to the first half of the season

In general, the footballers from the principality are currently going through a difficult phase in the season. They have only won three of the nine competitive matches played in the 2025 football year. In the same period, however, there were five defeats, in which a total of 14 goals were scored. Since the end of November, the reigning vice-champion from France has only managed five wins, two draws and nine defeats.

The disappointing form therefore serves as a clear argument for considering the odds on the Portuguese guest before the first leg between Monaco and Benfica Lisbon. The betting provider LeoVegas will pay out three times the stake in the event of an away win.

Alternatively, a bet on Over 2.5 goals is a good idea from a statistical point of view, because at least three goals have been scored in nine of the last eleven competitive games involving ASM. The dress rehearsal last Friday went disastrously with 1:4 at Paris St. Germain. At the same time, however, the Monegasques are always good for scoring their own goals, which is demonstrated, for example, by the eleven (!) different goal scorers of the 13 goals scored so far in the Champions League. The burden on the offensive is spread across several shoulders.

Provisional line-up of Monaco:

Benfica Lisbon – statistics & current form

Benfica Lisbon have had a strong league phase in the Champions League. Although the Portuguese had several tough matches against Bayern, Barcelona, Atlético Madrid and Juventus, the Eagles ultimately collected 13 points and conceded only three defeats. In two of those three defeats, the 1-0 loss in Munich and the 5-4 defeat at home to FC Barcelona, the team of coach Bruno Lage made a really good impression. The only inexplicable setback came in the 3-1 home defeat to Feyenoord Rotterdam.

Benfica’s goal scorer Pavlidis is in the form of his life

The Portuguese record champions have put in a particularly strong performance away from home. They won three of their four away games in the premier league, including 3:2 in Monaco and 2:0 in Turin on the last match day. In the separate away table, Benfica would be level on points and goals with Liverpool FC, who, as is well known, were the first to qualify directly for the last sixteen of this competition.

In my opinion, it is therefore advisable to base your prediction more on the away team before the Monaco-Benfica Lisbon clash. The Draw-No-Bet 2 is an absolute no-brainer at odds of 2.10, especially since the Bet365 bonus code in February 2025 can be used to minimize your own risk.

Considering Benfica’s recent results, the over 2.5 is also a profitable option, especially since a corresponding bet would have been successful in nine of the past ten games for the Lage team. At the weekend, they beat Moreirense 3-2 at home, with Vangelis Pavlidis once again being the match winner. The Greek, who previously played for VfL Bochum, scored twice and now has seven goals and two assists in his last five competitive games for Os Encarnados. Winamax is offering an exciting 2.70 as the top odds for a Pavlidis goal on Wednesday.

Provisional line-up for Benfica Lisbon:

Monaco – Benfica Lisbon Head to head / H2H record

These clubs have met three times previously, with Benfica losing none of those matches (2-1-0). In November, the Eagles from Lisbon got the better of Monaco 3-2 in the group stage. Benfica had an xG value of over 3.00 at the time, but still needed two goals behind to wake up and turn the game around in the last ten minutes. Monaco’s record against Portuguese clubs in the Champions League thus remains disastrous (1-1-6). Benfica, on the other hand, have lost only three of their last 13 Champions League games against clubs from France’s Ligue 1.

Monaco – Benfica Lisbon Betting Tip

For the first time in the club’s history, Benfica Lisbon will face a team in the knockout phase of the European Cup that they have already faced in the preliminary round. The memories of the late 3-2 victory at the Stade Louis II in November 2024 are extremely positive. With plenty of confidence and an impressive away record of three wins in four games in the CL league phase, the scarlet team will travel from the Portuguese capital to the luxurious principality.

Since the end of November, the Monegasques have lost nine (!) competitive games (5-2-9) and conceded a lot of goals. The young team has recently learned the hard way and could once again reach its limits against the Portuguese record champions. I am therefore trying to tip the DNB 2 between Monaco and Benfica Lisbon, which I am offering at a top rate of 2.10 with five units.