Can Everton annoy the league leaders?

On Wednesday, Everton FC will face Liverpool FC in the English Premier League. It is also the Merseyside derby at the same time and thus brings plenty of excitement. Nevertheless, the roles are clearly distributed, because while the away team is currently at the top of the table, the home team still has to fear for relegation. As a result, the Everton v Liverpool odds clearly favor a win for the away team.

But how likely a victory for the favorites really is, we now want to analyze in more detail. We start with the home and away record of the two teams and can quickly see the class difference here as well. The Toffees only managed to collect 16 points in their own stadium, while the Reds have already collected 30 points away from home.

Form-wise, however, Everton can keep up with the LFC, as David Moyes’ team has won their last three league games. On the other hand, Arne Slot’s team last lost a league game on September 14. So at the beginning of our Everton v Liverpool prediction, nothing seems to be getting past the away team.

Everton – Statistics & current form

Everton did not get off to a good start to the season at all and won only three of the first 19 league games (16%) under Sean Dyche. This meant that the Toffees were just above the relegation places at the winter break and were therefore at serious risk of relegation. However, under new manager David Moyes, the home side were able to redeem themselves and won three of their next four PL games. As a result, the hosts now have a nine-point lead over Leicester City and are therefore out of the red zone. With a win against Liverpool, EFC could even jump to 13th place.

With only 23 goals in 23 games (Ø 1.00), the Toffees have one of the weakest attacking lines in the league. In fact, only bottom-placed Southampton have scored even fewer goals. It is therefore no wonder that the home side have gone twelve Premier League matches without scoring a goal, putting the ball in the opponent’s net in just 48% of league matches. However, with eight goals in their last three league matches, Everton have recently shown a completely different side. This should give them courage!

Everton is very compact defensively

While the offense was barely existent for long periods of the season, the Toffees’ back line did an excellent job. With only 28 goals conceded in 23 league games (Ø 1.22), the home side are only behind Liverpool, Arsenal and Nottingham in the league-wide comparison and thus even in fourth place in the Premier League. It is therefore hardly surprising that David Moyes’ team have kept a clean sheet nine times already, allowing a goal in just 61% of matches. At home, the rate is even lower at just 45%.

Predicted Everton lineup:

Liverpool – statistics & current form

Liverpool are having an outstanding season and are currently perhaps even the best team in Europe. Arne Slot’s team picked up 56 points from their first 23 league games, losing just a single game along the way. Not only do the LFC lead the Premier League, but they are also considered contenders for the Champions League triumph. On top of that, the Reds have also secured a place in the EFL Cup final. The only blot on the copybook so far has been their early exit from the FA Cup against Plymouth, bottom of the Championship.

Liverpool have the best offense in the league

With 56 goals in 23 league games (Ø 2.44), it is extremely likely that we will see not just one but two goals from the away team. This value is outstanding, because even the second-best offense in the league, Arsenal, has “only” 2.04 goals per game. It is therefore no wonder that the Reds have only failed to score once, putting the ball in the net in 96% of PL games. One player in particular deserves special mention: Mo Salah. The Egyptian already has 34 assists in the league alone. This figure is absurd and makes him currently the best player on the planet.

Liverpool are also the measure of all things defensively

However, it is not only in offense that the Reds are doing incredibly well, but also in defense. The guests conceded only 21 goals in the first 23 league games (Ø 1.91) and thus stayed even below the mark of 1.0 goals conceded per game. Ten times they managed a clean sheet and thus in only 57% of the games. Especially against the so far weak offense of the city rivals, Liverpool should be able to improve this value even further or at least allow only very few scoring chances.

Expected line-up of Liverpool:

Everton – Liverpool direct comparison / H2H record

In the team analysis, there is not a single point that speaks against a win for the away team, but who does better in direct comparison? In the H2H comparison, the Reds are also ahead, winning 97 of 242 duels (40%). By comparison, the Blues have 68 wins and have therefore only managed to win 28% of the time. Most recently, however, the Toffees were able to annoy the LFC a few times and only lost four of the last nine duels. For us, this is one reason why the Everton v Liverpool betting odds should perhaps be a little more balanced.

Everton – Liverpool Tip

In summary of all the facts mentioned, we cannot ignore the Everton v Liverpool tip for a win by the guests. Individually, however, the odds hardly have any value, so we combine this tip with under 4.5 goals. This is primarily because both teams are very solid defensively. In fact, both defenses are among the best in the league. Furthermore, there have never been more than two goals in the past five duels.

Alternatively, you can also add the Everton v Liverpool odds for “both teams to score – no” to your betting slip. The risk is of course significantly higher here, because we should not underestimate the reinvigorated Toffees. However, in the last five duels between the two teams, neither team has ever scored a goal, so this recommendation is not entirely outlandish.