Will BVB under Kovac find their way in the premier class?

For Borussia Dortmund, the air in the Bundesliga is getting thinner and thinner. With the recent 1-2 defeat in Kovac’s debut at home to VfB Stuttgart, the black and yellow’s gap to the last Champions League spot has already grown to seven points. The BVB supporters should therefore definitely enjoy every second they currently still have left in the premier class. In the next two weeks, however, the goal of last year’s finalist must be to reach the last 16. The chances are definitely there, because before the first leg of the playoff between Sporting Lisbon and Dortmund, the tip that BVB will advance is being quoted at a slightly lower rate.

Especially in the away game in the Portuguese capital, it will be important for Kovac’s players to achieve a good result and, at best, not to leave the field as losers. Just how difficult this task will be is underlined by the strong home results of the green-whites from the league phase, which, however, were almost without exception achieved under former coach Ruben Amorim. Since Amorim left for Manchester, the Lions have noticeably lost momentum. Among other things, this seems to be why a forecast between Sporting Lisbon and Dortmund is by no means hopeless for the Bundesliga club.

In principle, the Sporting Lisbon vs. Dortmund odds provide an expected picture. On the one hand, the betting providers expect a relatively even match at the Estadio José Alvalade. On the other hand, there is a lot to be said for a rather low-scoring game, certainly also due to the significance of this first leg.

Sporting Lissabon vs. Dortmund Prognose KI

The fact is that the AI assumes a relatively spectacular match with more than three goals, which does not really match the bookmakers’ assessment. As a result, the Sporting vs. Dortmund AI prediction of Over 3.5 goals is also offering a respectable 2.15 odds.

Sporting Lisbon – Statistics & current form

It is only for the third time in the club’s history that Sporting Lisbon could reach the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League this season. To achieve that goal, however, the Green and Whites will have to present themselves in a different light than in the second half of the league phase. After Ruben Amorim left the Portuguese capital at the beginning of November to sign for Manchester United, they only managed to pick up a single point from the next four games in the Champions League. No other club will therefore start the playoffs with a longer winless streak on the international stage.

While the Lions shone on the first four matchdays, picking up ten out of a possible twelve points and recording convincing home wins over Lille (2-0) and Manchester City (4-1), the reigning champions of Portugal ultimately had to fear for their place in Europe’s premier club competition.

Sporting with Gyökeres, but without leader Hjulmand

Generally speaking, the loss of the long-standing successful coach has led to a break at Sporting. Amorim’s immediate successor Joao Pereira was dismissed after less than two months in the job, and current coach Rui Borges, who was signed from league rivals Vitoria Guimaraes for a reported €4 million, is also struggling to fill the huge shoes of the 40-year-old Lisbon native, who won six titles with the green-whites. Although there have only been two defeats in all competitions under Borges, the performances have been rather poor in some cases.

It may have something to do with the fact that Rui Borges has moved away from the back three that was previously very popular in the capital and now likes to line up in a classic 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1. However, the coach will definitely have to do without his captain and midfield linchpin in the first leg. The Dane Morten Hjulmand is missing through suspension. It is assumed that top scorer Victor Gyökeres will move into the starting lineup. Gyökeres’ involvement has been carefully managed by the club for weeks because the Swede is not physically fit. In the two important matches against BVB, however, the Portuguese are pinning their hopes on the 75-million-euro man, who has scored as many goals in 34 competitive games this season.

Despite the undoubted quality in the offensive area and the home advantage, a forecast for under-goals plays a major role in my considerations between Sporting Lisbon and Dortmund. Both teams will be cautious at first, because falling behind should be avoided at all costs. No wonder, because of all the clubs still in the competition, the Lions were behind the longest number of minutes in the CL league phase.

Predicted Sporting Lisbon lineup:

Dortmund – statistics & current form

Opinions are currently divided on whether the knockout phase of the Champions League, which begins on Tuesday, comes at an inconvenient time for BVB or perhaps even at the perfect time. On the one hand, after just a few days in the office of Niko Kovac, no transformation can be expected that would have a particularly positive influence on the black-and-yellow match. On the other hand, CL evenings are of course made to boost self-confidence and to grow together faster as a team (including the coaching team). The bottom line is that before the first leg between Sporting Lisbon and Dortmund, the higher odds on the away win are therefore quite justified.

Does Borussia’s starting position play into the cards?

The bookmakers’ assessment is certainly also based on the fact that the CL finalist from last year has only won two of eight competitive games since the restart after the winter break. Especially away from home, the worm is still in the game. Defeats in Bologna, in Kiel and in Frankfurt impressively underline this thesis. However, all these defeats were still under Nuri Sahin, who has since been replaced by discipline fanatic Niko Kovac. Niko Kovac himself has so far been on the sidelines as a coach in six away games in the premier class and has not yet conceded a defeat (4-2-0).

However, in my opinion, an analytical approach with a focus on (past) statistics is not particularly advisable in connection with BVB, because Niko Kovac will choose a completely different approach than his predecessor. A compact defense is the key to success. Because BVB does not necessarily see itself as the favorite in Lisbon, the transition game will be an important weapon. It is quite possible that the reactive basic idea will work even better in the current situation for the Bundesliga’s 11th team than an active possession football.

All the more interesting are the betting odds between Dortmund and Sporting Lisbon for Black-Yellow to score the first goal of the game, possibly through a counterattack. In addition to fast players like Adeyemi or Gittens, Guirassy is a logical choice as a potential goalscorer. The former Stuttgart player has scored nine goals in this CL season and could become only the third BVB player after Lewandowski and Haaland to score double digits in a European Cup season. You can find a top rate of 2.95 at Bet-at-Home for a Guirassy goal.

Predicted line-up for Dortmund:

Sporting Lisbon – Dortmund head to head / H2H record

There have been four meetings between these clubs at international level, all in the Champions League group stage. BVB won the first three encounters and then conceded a 3-1 defeat in the last direct duel to date in Lisbon in November 2021. In their 14th European Cup match against a Portuguese team, it was only the fifth defeat for the black and yellow; the other nine games were won. Also interesting: Sporting have lost more European games against Bundesliga clubs than against clubs from other countries (4-6-21).

Sporting Lisbon – Dortmund Tip

In September or October of this year, Borussia Dortmund would certainly still have traveled to Lisbon with an uncomfortable feeling to play an away game against Sporting in the Portuguese capital. Under Amorim, the green-whites dominated the domestic league at will and declassified Manchester City 4-1 in the Champions League, for example. However, after Amorim’s departure, the Lions are looking for their best form. However, the same applies to BVB, who have only won two of eight competitive games in the 2025 calendar year so far and even lost 2-1 at home to VfB Stuttgart in Kovac’s debut on Saturday afternoon.