Will the FCB defense falter against a Werder team weakened by injuries?
Without coach Ole Werner and the regular central defense of Friedl/Stark, Werder Bremen has to hold its own at the Allianz Arena for the start of the 21st match day in the Bundesliga. All three protagonists were shown the red card by referee Petersen in last Friday’s home win against FSV Mainz 05. The already highly complicated undertaking at the league leaders’ home is thus becoming a mammoth task from a guest perspective. There are therefore not many arguments that justify a bet on the underdog between Bayern and Werder Bremen.
However, the situation before the direct duel in the previous season was relatively similar. As the clear favorite, Munich lost 1-0 at home to the men from the Weser at the end of January, suffering a painful setback in the race for the championship. Incidentally, it was the only success of the north Germans against the record champions in the last 30 league games. However, the Bayern v Werder Bremen prediction on Friday evening also depends on many other factors, which will be analyzed in more detail in the next few paragraphs.
It must be noted, for example, that the Kompany team has an important Champions League match coming up. The playoff first leg against Celtic Glasgow may already be on the minds of the FCB professionals. However, the betting providers are not concerned about this and are offering top odds of 1.13 for Bayern to win at home against Werder Bremen.
Bayern vs. Werder Bremen prediction AI
No club is given a higher probability of winning by the betting base AI “BETSiE” than FC Bayern at home against Werder Bremen in the upcoming matchday. Nevertheless, the 79% predicted by the artificial intelligence is still well below the 87% that the betting providers are offering. However, this also quickly makes it clear that between Bayern and Bremen, the AI prediction tends to favor the guests. Based on the xG values, the “BETSiE” assumes a difference of 1.92, so that a handicap bet (+2.5) in favor of Werder makes sense at a maximum rate of 2.00 according to the AI.
Bayern – Statistics & current form
With 51 points after 20 match days, FC Bayern is playing the best Bundesliga season in the last nine years. They have won 16 games. There were three draws and only one defeat. Vincent Kompany thus scored 2.6 points on average per BL game. Thanks to the most recent series of six consecutive Bundesliga wins, he has now overtaken Pep Guardiola and has the best record of any Bundesliga coach at a club.
Nevertheless, the leaders at Säbener Straße, above all the council of elders headed by Uli Hoeneß, were not completely satisfied with the recent performances. Although all five league games after the winter break were won and FCB thus also occupies first place in the second half of the season, it should be noted in the Bayern vs. Werder Bremen prediction that four of the five successes mentioned only came about with exactly one goal in front.
That is why handicap bets in favor of the guests from the Osterdeich are definitely worth considering. Even for an away defeat with a maximum of two goals difference, a solid 1.85 can still be found at Merkur Bets.
Bayern have only kept two clean sheets since the end of November
At the end of the day, Munich’s role as the clear favorite is of course understandable. 62 goals scored in 20 Bundesliga games underline this, as do eight consecutive Bundesliga home games with at least three goals of their own. However, the very potent offense has recently also been at the expense of a stable defense on various occasions.
On the last three matchdays, only the relegation candidates from Kiel and Bochum have conceded more goals than Manuel Neuer in the Bayern goal. Last weekend, they “only” managed a 4-3 win at home against KSV Holstein. The record champions have kept a clean sheet in just two of their last 13 competitive games (!). Regardless of the final result, it therefore definitely makes sense to consider the odds on both teams scoring in the run-up to Bayern’s match against Werder Bremen.
Werder Bremen – statistics & current form
SV Werder Bremen continue to dream of returning to the international stage. But this dream could actually become reality this season, because as the current eighth in the table, the north Germans are only three points behind RB Leipzig, whose fourth place would even entitle them to participate in the UEFA Champions League. Although there is still a long way to go, the performances so far suggest that in the end there will be no more than five or six clubs ahead of the green-whites in the standings.
Werder can fall back on a good away record
The men from the Weser were able to underpin their own ambitions last Friday with a 1-0 home win against Mainz 05. However, the first win in the calendar year 2025 after four games without a win (0-2-2) was dearly paid for. Captain Friedl and Niklas Stark were both sent off with yellow-red and will be missing at the Allianz Arena, as will coach Ole Werner, who was so incensed by the referee’s decisions after the final whistle that he was also shown the red card by referee Petersen.
The lack of personnel, especially in defense, is certainly one of the reasons why the bookmakers don’t have much confidence in the team currently in eighth place in the Bundesliga and are offering incredibly high betting odds of up to 7.25 for the double chance X2 between Bayern and Werder Bremen. In my opinion, this odds is still value, especially since Werder have already won five away games in this Bundesliga season and are in a remarkable fifth place in the separate guest table.
If you don’t want to risk betting on the underdog winning a point, not even by using the Betano bonus, you should at least bet on the Green-Whites scoring. Ducksch, Stage, Weiser and Co. have already scored 20 goals away from home, the third-highest tally in the league. The only game in which they didn’t score a goal was the 1-0 defeat in Frankfurt. Since then, however, they have scored twice in each of the games in Dortmund and Leipzig and at St. Pauli, which has the second-best defense in the German top flight.
Bayern – Werder Bremen Direct comparison / H2H record
115 Bundesliga duels are between these clubs in the statistics. In 57 away games in Munich, you can count the away winners of Werder on two hands (eight). At least one of these rare successes came in the previous season, when Mitchell Weiser sensationally scored the only goal of the game to give the Green and Whites a 1-0 win at the Allianz Arena. However, it was the only win in the past 30 meetings in Germany’s top division (1-4-25). Since 2018, the north Germans have managed a maximum of one goal against FCB in all BL games, and in most cases none at all.
Bayern vs. Werder Bremen tip
The duel between the two youngest Bundesliga coaches will not take place on Friday evening. The reason for this is the interior ban on Ole Werner, who is not allowed to have any (in)direct contact with his team 30 minutes before kick-off and 30 minutes after kick-off. Because the guests are also missing their two regular central defenders and Bayern are the only German team to have won all five league matches after the winter break, on paper it is a typical David vs.
Nevertheless, I believe that the guests from the Weser are capable of annoying Munich and scoring at least once. The green-whites are the fifth-best away team in the league, have scored the third-highest number of goals away from home and have already scored twice in Dortmund and Leipzig in 2025. My Bayern vs. Werder Bremen tip is therefore “Both score”.
