Will Tullberg’s involvement with the professionals end with a win?
Since Wednesday evening it has been announced that Niko Kovac will be the new BVB coach. The former professional, who has already worked in the Bundesliga for Eintracht Frankfurt, FC Bayern and most recently in Wolfsburg, has been entrusted with the challenging task of managing the black and yellow chaos and leading the team back to success. Together with his brother Robert, Niko Kovac will not take over the Champions League finalists until Sunday. Interim coach Mike Tullberg can thus still have a decisive influence on the Heidenheim vs. Dortmund tip.
The impulsive Dane, who exemplifies the mentality desired by the club management, has emotionalized the entire environment in a few days and thus led Borussia the first steps out of the veritable crisis. On match day 20 of the Bundesliga, Tullberg and his charges will now do everything they can to ensure that the forecast for the away game between Heidenheim and Dortmund comes true. However, the loss of home advantage could well become a factor compared to his first two matches as interim coach.
Heidenheim vs. Dortmund prognosis AI
The bookmakers have calculated a 55% probability of victory for Borussia Dortmund. The betting base AI lady “BETSiE” has corrected this value downwards to 51% in her simulation, so that a double chance of 1X also results in an acceptable 49% probability. If you convert this into a fair odds, it is relatively clearly below the offered betting odds for the host to win the point. Ergo: Between Heidenheim and Dortmund, the AI prognosis aims for at least a draw for the 1st FCH.
Heidenheim – Statistics & current form
In the entire last season, 1. FC Heidenheim only conceded twelve defeats in 34 match days. The sensational eighth place qualified the blue-red-whites for international business in their first Bundesliga year. Before the playoffs in the Conference League against FC Copenhagen continue in mid-February, the team from the Ostalb region urgently needs to experience success in the German top flight. No wonder, because after 19 matches, coach Frank Schmidt’s team has already recorded one more defeat than in the previous season.
No team scored worse at home than Heidenheim
A glance at the table shows how serious the situation is for the 2023 second division champions. Only Holstein Kiel and VfL Bochum have collected fewer points. Sitting in the relegation place, last year’s eighth-place team is already four points off the coast. One of the reasons for the disappointing performance so far is the home weakness. In nine Bundesliga home games, only a meager seven points were earned. With a record of two wins, one draw and six defeats, 1. FCH is even the worst home team in the Bundesliga. Eight goals scored in front of their own fans is also the second-weakest figure in the league comparison.
To make matters worse, Schmidt’s team have suffered two major setbacks recently. They were beaten 2-0 at home by St. Pauli and last weekend, the third-bottom team in the table lost 2-1 in Augsburg after a brave performance, conceding a goal in the last minute. In view of the aforementioned lackluster performance at home, the arguments in favor of a BVB win over Heidenheim and Dortmund are overwhelming.
Last but not least, the Heidenheim defense must be denied stability to some extent. In nine of the past ten Bundesliga matches, keeper Müller conceded at least two goals. For a bet on two or more BVB goals, odds of up to 1.63 are being offered in the Interwetten app on Saturday in the Ostalb before the Dortmund vs. Heidenheim clash.
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
In the Bundesliga, Borussia Dortmund is still waiting for its first win in the 2025 calendar year. After three defeats in the first three games, Black and Yellow also had to settle for a 2-2 draw at home against Werder Bremen last weekend despite a 2-0 lead. At least the 3-1 Champions League victory over Shakhtar Donetsk on Wednesday helped to boost confidence. Nevertheless, it was not enough to reach the top eight.
Dortmund is the worst Bundesliga team this year
At the national level, Borussia has fallen to eleventh place due to a sustained negative run that began before the winter break and is reflected in just a single victory in the last eight league games. Never before has a Dortmund team been lower in the standings than it is now in the past ten years. Eighteenth place in the separate 2025 table, with the second-most goals conceded of all 18 Bundesliga clubs, is also sobering.
As if these poor statistics weren’t worrying enough, the away weakness further complicates the task on Saturday afternoons. BVB has only managed to pick up five points away from home so far. In addition to a single win and two draws, there have been six defeats and a total of 20 goals conceded. In general, 33 goals conceded after 19 match days is almost grotesque. In 17 consecutive Bundesliga matches, last year’s fourth-placed team has always conceded at least one goal.
Despite the almost exclusively negative connotations so far, I believe that the black and yellow have a good chance of taking three points from the Schlossberg. On the one hand, because interim coach Mike Tullberg has brought new momentum and spurred on the players with his emotionality. On the other hand, because of the clear quality advantage, which cannot be denied despite the absence of some players such as Schlotterbeck (suspended) or Nmecha (injured).
Heidenheim – Dortmund direct comparison / H2H record
Only three meetings stand between these clubs in the statistics. In 2023/24, Heidenheim fought hard for a draw in both the first and second legs. However, BVB were able to prevail 4-2 at home in the first half of the current season. Adeyemi scored twice that time. This time, Serhou Guirassy is the most likely scorer. If the team’s top scorer scores the 1-0 again, you will receive a handsome 5.00 in the Bet365 app.
Heidenheim – Dortmund tip
Two European Cup participants who can definitely not be satisfied with their performance so far this season will face each other in the Voith Arena on Saturday afternoon. While the Heidenheim team, last year’s eighth-place team, has only managed to collect 14 points so far and, due to two painful defeats on the last two match days, is more concerned than ever about avoiding relegation, the guests from the Ruhr area are fighting for an international place. However, just one point from four Bundesliga games in 2025 is also causing a lot of resentment among the black and Yellows.
Nevertheless, I still believe that the qualitatively stronger Borussia will get the win this weekend and argue with the modest home record of 1. FCH (2-1-6) and the increase in form under interim coach Mike Tullberg, who will be on the bench for the last time before Niko Kovac takes over in the summer.
Despite BVB’s serious away weakness, I’m trying my luck with the Heidenheim vs. Dortmund tip on the away win with a maximum of five goals in the game. Betano offers 1.90. My stake is six units.
