Will FCB pull off the planned shooting match this time?

On Wednesday evening, everything was set for a FC Bayern shooting match at the Allianz Arena. In view of the situation in the table and the battle for the top eight in the Champions League, Munich had set itself the goal of bringing the Slovak underdog from Bratislava to its knees with a landslide victory. In the end, however, the scoreline was a somewhat sobering 3-1 win, which fell short of their own expectations. On Saturday afternoon, the situation is similar, because the tip for the record champions seems to be a mere formality again between Bayern and Kiel. The primary question is the size of the victory.

Especially the impressions from the first leg certainly also make the Störche travel south with a somewhat queasy feeling. In mid-September, Kompany’s team opened the scoring after just 14 seconds. At half-time the score was 4-0, and after 90 minutes it was 1-6 to KSV Holstein, who have since developed in a thoroughly positive direction and have recently been able to surprise again and again in Germany’s top division. Nevertheless, there is still no alternative to the prediction for the current league leaders ahead of the one-sided clash between Bayern and Kiel.

Bayern vs. Kiel prediction AI

Of course, artificial intelligence has identified the clearest starting position in the clash between Bayern and Kiel on this 20th matchday in the Bundesliga. “BETSiE” assumes with 91.1% certainty that the league leaders will get the better of the promoted team. Based on the xG values of 3.35 to 0.41, a goal difference of 2.94 goals can be calculated for these teams. With an appealing ratio of 1.97, the Bayern vs. Kiel AI prediction even goes to the Asian handicap (+3.25) in favor of the Störche. The Wettbasis’ artificial intelligence therefore believes that, similar to Wednesday’s game, Munich’s success will be limited.

Bayern – Statistics & current form

There will be a birthday boy in the FC Bayern jersey on Saturday afternoon. Harry Kane is about to play his 50th Bundesliga game and has already set a historic record. Never before has a Bundesliga professional scored as many goals in his first 50 league games as the England striker (53).

It is quite possible that the still title-less 31-year-old will expand his personal goal tally at the weekend. Because Kane already scored a hat-trick in the first leg, it makes sense to bet on the goal scorer scoring again. If Kane even puts his team 1-0 in the lead, Winamax offers odds of 3.50 between Bayern and Kiel.

Lack of concentration is part of Bayern’s dominance

In principle, there is little doubt that the Bundesliga leaders will live up to their role as favorites in their own stadium. Munich have won all four league games so far in the calendar year 2025, scoring eleven goals. In fact, their total of 58 goals is by far the best in the German top flight.

However, coach Vincent Kompany’s very offensive approach has also meant that his team have conceded goals time and again. In six of the last eight Bundesliga matches, the record champions have conceded at least one goal. Across all competitions, there have been four consecutive competitive games in which the respective opponents were able to get the ball over the FCB goal line at least once. A loss of substance is certainly noticeable at the end of the third consecutive week at the Säbener Straße, so I am definitely not averse to making a prediction that both teams will score before Bayern’s match against Kiel.

Kiel – Statistics & current form

Even before the season started, it was clear that the promoted team from Kiel would have to focus solely on avoiding relegation in their first year in the Bundesliga. Although they would certainly have been able to win a few more points, the storks still have every chance of achieving this challenging goal. As the penultimate team in the table, coach Marcel Rapp’s team is currently two points off the relegation place and six points off the safety line.

Kiel has the second-best offense in the lower half of the Bundesliga table

Nevertheless, the team from the Baltic Sea can definitely be said to have made progress in the course of this Bundesliga season. Across the years, the Kielers have scored in three of the last five league matches. Last week, Machino, Harres and Co. fought hard to earn a respectable 2-2 draw in Wolfsburg. At home, they have already beaten BVB 4-2 in 2025. The promoted team is definitely competitive, even though their defensive weakness on the 19 match days so far has often undermined better results.

No team has conceded more goals in the season so far than the Störche. In no fewer than 17 of the 19 matches, goalkeeper Timon Weiner has had to make at least two saves. Interestingly, a large proportion of the goals conceded came in the first halves (28/48), which is why it might make sense to consider the betting odds for the double result HT1/FT1 for Saturday’s game between Bayern and Kiel. Among other things, you can even combine a corresponding bet with other markets in the Bwin app.

Despite their role as clear outsiders, the second-bottom team in the table are capable of scoring a goal at the Allianz Arena on Saturday. On the one hand, because the Rapp XI have scored a whopping 14 (!) goals in their last five league matches. On the other hand, against the background that KSV Holstein has not remained without a goal for six consecutive matches and has also been able to immortalize itself on the scoreboard in ten of the last twelve Bundesliga matches. In particular, as the game progresses, a lot seems possible if FCB takes the pace out a bit and Kiel, with fresh substitutes, try their luck in offense again. Kiel’s substitutes have already scored 14 goals this season!

Bayern – Kiel head-to-head record

From Kiel’s point of view, the sensational cup triumph in 2020/21 will of course remain a fond memory. The storks prevailed 6-5 on penalties in the second round that time. The second and so far last direct duel also produced six goals for the winner. This time, however, after regular playing time. Munich flexed its muscles in the 6-1 win on the Baltic Sea coast, but still conceded an unnecessary goal in the end…

Bayern – Kiel Tip

How high will FC Bayern win the home game on Saturday afternoon against Holstein Kiel? Strictly speaking, this is the fundamental question before the meeting of the league leaders and record champions against the Bundesliga debutants, who are in penultimate place with only twelve points. A comfortable victory seems anything but out of the question, especially since Kiel have the weakest defense in the league and now have to face by far the best offense in the German top flight. Unsurprisingly, the odds are clearly in favor of Kompany’s team.

But in my opinion, the Bayern vs. Kiel tip that both teams will score is particularly attractive. The guests from the north are always good for goals, have scored in ten of the last twelve Bundesliga games and, with 28 goals, are the second-best offense behind BVB in the lower half of the table. Moreover, FCB have only kept a clean sheet in two of their last eight Bundesliga matches. In view of this, the 2.10 for “Both score” is overestimated and therefore worth a four-unit wager.