Who will secure three important points in the fight for the knockout round?

On Thursday, January 23, 2025, Alkmaar and AS Roma will also enter the seventh and penultimate matchday of the UEFA Europa League. There doesn’t seem to be a clear favorite ahead of this game, with only a single point separating the two teams. However, the bookmakers see it differently and are relatively clearly tipping a home win. We will now take a closer look at the possible reasons for this in our Alkmaar v AS Roma prediction. We are excited to see what conclusion we come to!

First of all, we look at the home and away record of the two teams. This is where the first question marks arise for us, because the Italians, who are favored by the betting providers, have not yet won a single away game this season. In addition, the home side are quite strong at home and score an average of 2.07 points per home game. At second glance, the Alkmaar v AS Roma betting tip does not really suggest a win for the guests. Perhaps our team analysis will lead us to a different conclusion.
The highest Alkmaar v AS Roma odds for a win by the supposed favorite can be found at the bookmaker Betano, which we have tested. The game kicks off on Thursday at 6:45 PM at the AFAS Stadium in Alkmaar. The match can be followed live and in full on RTL+.

Alkmaar – Statistics & current form

Alkmaar finished the previous season in fourth place in the highest Dutch division and thus secured direct participation in the Europa League. There, Maarten Martens’ team collected eight points from the first six games and is still in 19th place. That would currently be enough to qualify for the playoffs and keep the door to the knockout stage open.

But there are still a few teams lurking in the rearview mirror, waiting for an opportunity to pass the Dutch team. What’s more, the home side still has a chance of taking one of the top eight places, so a win against AS Roma would be extremely important.

Alkmaar without the big offensive power

With nine goals in six games (Ø 1.50), the hosts are neither particularly dangerous nor completely harmless. In the competition-internal comparison, Alkmaar is therefore also in 17th place with this yield and thus in the midfield. In addition, Maarten Martens’ team has not scored twice and has thus found its way into the opposing goal in only 67% of the games. At home, however, the rate is significantly better and is even 100%. One player in Alkmaar’s offense deserves special mention: Ruben van Bommel. The son of Bayern legend Mark van Bommel has already scored three goals in the Europa League.

Alkmaar with problems in defense

Defensively, the home side also have room for improvement, because nine goals conceded in six games (Ø 1.50) is simply too many. It is therefore no wonder that only twelve teams have conceded more than Alkmaar. Furthermore, Maarten Martens’ side have not kept a clean sheet in any of their six Europa League games, allowing at least one goal in each game. So this is clearly the hosts’ weak point. For this reason, a clean sheet cannot necessarily be expected before the clash with the Romans. On the other hand, however, a goal festival by the away team is not to be expected either – that much is certain.

AS Roma – Statistics & current form

AS Roma finished the previous season in sixth place in the top Italian league and thus qualified directly for the Europa League. With nine points from the first six games, their start in the competition was even slightly better than that of the home side.

Nevertheless, Claudio Ranieri’s team are only in 14th place and thus in the top midfield. So the guests still have nothing in the bag, because even 25th place has only two points less on the account. A win in Alkmaar would therefore also be very important for the away team. In addition, Eintracht Frankfurt is still a very difficult opponent.

AS Roma is somewhat lacking in penetration

With eight goals in six games (Ø 1.33), the guests are not particularly dangerous in front of goal. Nevertheless, Claudio Ranieri’s team has only been without a goal of their own once, putting the ball in the net in 83% of games. On the other hand, the Romans only managed to score more than one goal twice and therefore only managed to relieve the pressure on the defense to a limited extent. One player in particular stands out in the visitors’ offense, and that is Artem Dovbyk. The Ukraine international has already scored eleven goals in all competitions and is therefore by far the most dangerous player in the visiting team. So a lot depends on the striker.

AS Roma have quality in defense

Defensively, Claudio Ranieri’s team can be quite satisfied with their performances in the Europa League. With five goals conceded in six games (Ø 0.83), the Italians even have one of the best defenses in the competition. Nevertheless, the Romans kept a clean sheet only twice and thus conceded at least one goal in 67% of the games. Away from home, the rate is even worse and stands at 100%. Especially against AZ Alkmaar, who have always scored in their three home games, a “clean sheet” seems rather unrealistic. We therefore tend to expect a game with a lot of goals rather than a game with few goals.

Alkmaar – AS Rome Direct comparison / H2H record

In the pure team analysis of the two teams, no favorite can be seen, but what about in the direct comparison? The H2H comparison does not play a role in this duel, because the two teams have not yet met each other. This is quite surprising, because the two clubs actually take part in the international competitions regularly. This also does not explain why the Alkmaar vs. AS Rom betting odds rather suggest a victory for the away team.

Alkmaar – AS Rom betting tip

We have deliberately decided against a win bet in this duel, because apart from the squad comparison, there is absolutely nothing to be said for the supposed favorite. It gets even much worse, because the Romans have not won a single away game this season, despite 13 attempts. Furthermore, the home side have not been beaten in 11 competitive games and are therefore even stronger than the away side. We therefore recommend the Alkmaar vs. AS Roma betting tip on “both teams to score – yes” and thus expect an even match.

Alternatively, we recommend the Alkmaar vs. AS Roma odds for over 2.5 goals in the game. We have already mentioned the reasons for this in our main tip. The two teams rarely go without scoring, but they also rarely go without conceding. We therefore expect a very lively game with chances on both sides of the field. Especially shortly before the end of the league phase, the clubs also have to increase the risk a little, because a draw does not help either of the two teams.