Will Sascha overcome the first hurdle with flying colors?

As the current number two in the ATP world rankings and number two in the seeding for the first Grand Slam tournament of the new year, Alexander Zverev is of course also one of the favorites for the Australian Open 2025. Accordingly, it is likely that in the opening game between Lucas Pouille and Alexander Zverev, the tip for the German superstar to win will come true, as he is still driven by the big goal of finally crowning himself a Grand Slam winner.

The former top 10 player Lucas Pouille was in the Australian Open semi-finals in 2019. However, since the coronavirus pandemic, the Frenchman, who is no longer even listed in the top 100, has also completely disappeared from the scene due to numerous injuries. Also in view of this, a prediction of a surprise victory for the 30-year-old against Alexander Zverev is anything but obvious.

The only singles match between the two athletes to date also went 2-1 to Alexander Zverev. Significantly, the game took place shortly before the Frenchman’s run at the 2019 Australian Open, when the 30-year-old made it to the semi-finals. Considering that Sascha had already beaten Lucas Pouille during his peak, he should not have too much trouble against a player who was clearly lagging behind his former form.

Nevertheless, the German has not always had an easy time in opening matches and was just recovering from a minor arm injury. We therefore do not expect a short appearance either, which is why we at Tipwin bet that at least 29 games will be played before the winner is determined. If you are not afraid of risk, you can also bet via the ODDSET app that the Frenchman will win at least one set.

Lucas Pouille – Statistics & current form

Current world ranking: 104
Position in the seeding list: Wildcard

The 30-year-old Frenchman Lucas Pouille was once considered a huge talent. The player from Rennes won five singles titles on the ATP Tour in his prime between 2016 and 2019. He was also always an uncomfortable opponent at the Grand Slam level. For example, in 2016 he knocked out none other than Rafael Nadal from the round of 16 at the US Open.

Then, however, the corona pandemic hit, which affected Lucas Pouille in the middle of an injury break, after which he has never quite recovered to this day. Most recently, the former top 10 player even missed out on qualifying for the ATP 250 tournament in Brisbane after a 0-2 defeat against Nishesh Basavareddy (ATP 138).

The Frenchman is the rank outsider

Meanwhile, the current world no. 104 only made it into the Australian Open men’s singles main draw, where Lucas Pouille has not won a single game since 2019, by getting a wildcard. The odds against Lucas Pouille against Alexander Zverev are correspondingly clear.

In the Bet365 app, we find odds of 17.00 for the 30-year-old to win, which clearly underlines his role as the rank outsider. It should be noted, however, that the player from Rennes has absolutely nothing to lose against the current world number two and can play freely.

Lucas Pouille has survived the first round

But there are two other aspects that speak against Lucas Pouille, in addition to his poor performance in recent years. Firstly, the Frenchman has lost the only direct duel with Alexander Zverev so far 1-2. And secondly, the Australian Open has never been a good place for the 30-year-old.

Pouille has appeared in the men’s singles of the first Grand Slam tournament of the tennis season seven times so far. In six of those seven cases, he lost the first game. Although he is capable of winning a set on a really good day, it cannot be assumed that he will be able to improve on this poor record.

Alexander Zverev – Statistics & current form

Current world ranking: 2
Seed: 2

The 27-year-old German Alexander Zverev still dreams of winning his first Grand Slam title. Of course, because Sascha has already won everything else there is to win. In 2018 and 2021, he won the ATP Finals and became the unofficial world champion. He also won the men’s singles gold medal at the 2021 Olympics.

However, he was unable to lift the Grand Slam trophy in the final of the US Open 2020 or in the final of the French Open 2024. As the number two seed, however, he can now make another attempt down under.

Alexander Zverev with a strong Australian Open record

So far, the Hamburg native has mostly sold himself very dearly in Melbourne. In the first round, he only failed in his debut in 2016. In 2020 and 2024, meanwhile, the journey went all the way to the semi-finals. Overall, Sascha has 25 wins from 34 completed singles matches at the Australian Open.

Lucas Pouille against Alexander Zverev is now under a correspondingly good star for the tip on the 26th victory of the German superstar, who, however, after a slight arm injury, did without the usual preparation tournaments in Brisbane, Adelaide and Auckland and so far in 2025 only played two matches in the United Cup.

Alexander Zverev is extremely strong in form

However, he did so with great success. Although he was no longer able to actively prevent the elimination of the German team in the quarterfinals, Sascha had previously beaten both Brazil’s Thiago Monteiro (ATP 109) and China’s Zhizhen Zhang (ATP 45), thus winning both of his singles matches in 2025.

Across the years, the Hamburg-born player has thus recorded ten wins from his last eleven completed singles matches, which underlines the strong form in which the 27-year-old finds himself. Barring a really bad day at the office, not much should stand in his way in the opening game.

Lucas Pouille – Alexander Zverev Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 0:1

There has only been one encounter between the two athletes so far. The duel goes back to the duel between Germany and France in the 2019 Hopman Cup in Perth, Australia. In the men’s singles, Alexander Zverev beat Lucas Pouille 2-1 in a close match (6-3, 6-7 and 6-2).

Lucas Pouille – Alexander Zverev Tip

The betting odds of the top bookmakers for Lucas Pouille against Alexander Zverev are clearly and unequivocally in favor of the German superstar, who, as the number two in the world and the seedings list, is definitely one of the favorites in Down Under. His French opponent – certainly not the most pleasant opponent to start with – has also reached the semi-finals of the Australian Open in 2019. Since then, however, the 30-year-old has not won a single game at the first Grand Slam tournament of the calendar year.

Although the favored German’s second-round entry should basically be a formality, the match could still take a while and possibly even be decided in the fourth set. The forecast for Lucas Pouille against Alexander Zverev is therefore very consistent, with at least 29 games needed before the winner is determined.