Will the Hessians find their way back at Millerntor?

For Eintracht Frankfurt, the winter break may have come at just the right time. A strong first half of the season was in danger of being disrupted by a recent winless streak. The Hessians have not won five competitive games in a row recently (one draw, four defeats). But if you bet on an away win for Frankfurt at St. Pauli, the SGE, which is still in third place in the Bundesliga table, would be back on track in the new year.

The Kiezkicker, for their part, have won two of their last four league games after a slow start to the season. With 14 points, the FCSP spent the winter break above the line, but as 14th in the table, they are still far from out of the woods. In view of the fact that the brown-and-whites have only won one of their seven Bundesliga home games in the 2024/25 season, our prediction for St. Pauli v Frankfurt is clearly in favor of the guests, who have also won their last two Bundesliga games against Hamburg.

The problems of the Kiezkicker result for the most part from the lack of offensive power. With only twelve goals scored, FC St. Pauli has the weakest offense in the Bundesliga. But: the only 19 goals conceded are in turn only undercut by FC Bayern (13). Accordingly, the odds for a not-too-scorching league game are favorable for St. Pauli against Frankfurt.

St. Pauli vs. Frankfurt prognosis AI

Not infrequently in the past, there has been a certain discrepancy between our human prognosis and the prediction of the AI. However, this is not the case for this Saturday’s game, because the supercomputer BETSiE also finds the highest possible value in the tip for the away win of the Eagles. At the top, we find LeoVegas, where up to €100 can currently be claimed with the LeoVegas new customer bonus, quoting 2.12 for tip 2, which implies a 47.2 percent chance of winning.

On the part of the BETSiE, however, the AI forecast for St. Pauli against Frankfurt predicts a 54.7 percent probability of the away team from Hessen winning, which means that we are quite comfortably 7.5 percent above the value range. From a mathematical point of view, it is therefore advisable to bet on the Europa League winner of 2022 in this duel between the current 14th and third in the table.

St. Pauli – statistics & current form

After Fabian Hürzeler’s (now with Brighton) unexpected promotion to the Bundesliga, St. Pauli’s top priority is to stay in the league. In terms of this season’s goal, the Kiezkicker were able to celebrate a relatively quiet Christmas. Because two of the last four league games were won (two defeats), the FCSP spent the winter break above the line.

The brown-and-whites are four points ahead of the relegation spot. However, despite this comparatively comfortable position, it should not be forgotten that the Hamburg team’s good standing is primarily due to the weak season of teams such as Bochum, Kiel and Heidenheim. With 14 points from 15 league games, the north Germans would have easily been bottom of the league in many a season.

St. Pauli defends well but scores too few goals

Nevertheless, the form curve has recently shown a slight upward trend, which should now be built on. Although the odds of the top bookmakers for St. Pauli against Frankfurt speak against a home win for the Kiezkickers, who have only won one of their seven Bundesliga home games in the 2024/25 season (two draws, four defeats).

However, at least one aspect speaks in favor of FCSP, namely their defensive stability. With only 19 goals conceded, Alexander Blessin’s players remarkably have the second-best defense in the Bundesliga behind Bayern (13). Nevertheless, all the compactness in the world won’t help if the team doesn’t finally get off the mark up front. With only twelve goals scored, St. Pauli also has the weakest Bundesliga offense, which could make it difficult to confirm the recent upward trend against the current third in the table.

Eintracht Frankfurt – Statistics & current form

Eintracht Frankfurt has got off to a remarkably good start, but recently came close to missing out on the reward for a strong first half of the season. Not only did the Hessians suffer a clear defeat against RB Leipzig (0-3) in the DFB Cup, but they also slipped to fifth place in the Europa League group stage after suffering their first defeat against Olympique Lyon (2-3).

In the Bundesliga, meanwhile, there was only one point out of a possible nine from the last three league games, which means that the SGE officially went into the winter break with five consecutive games without a win (one draw, three defeats). However, this has not yet taken a toll on the table. The Eagles are still in third place, but with 27 points from 15 games, they are now only three points ahead of ninth place.

Will Marmoush find his scoring touch again at the Millerntor?

If the tip for an away win by the team from Frankfurt doesn’t work out at St. Pauli against Frankfurt, Dino Toppmöller’s team could quickly lose ground in the Bundesliga table. However, their good record against promoted teams speaks against this. In twelve league games, the SGE has not lost to a team that played in the 2nd Bundesliga the previous season (nine wins, three draws).

In addition, Frankfurt has exactly what St. Pauli doesn’t have: offensive power. With 35 goals already, the Hessians have the third-best offense in the league, with Omar Marmoush standing out as the top scorer of the Bundesliga season (13 goals, seven assists). However, the Egyptian has not scored in three consecutive appearances. So it will also be up to him whether Toppmöller’s team gets back on track at Millerntor.

St. Pauli – Eintracht Frankfurt Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 5 – 7 – 8

There have only been 20 meetings between the two clubs, and Eintracht Frankfurt leads the direct comparison with eight wins. The Eagles also won the last two Bundesliga duels against the Kiezkicker and also came out on top in the last home game at the Millerntor Stadium in the second round of the 2019/20 DFB Cup, winning 2-1.

St. Pauli – Eintracht Frankfurt Tip

All in all, our prediction for the game between St. Pauli and Frankfurt is an away win for the Hessians, who have not won in five competitive games (one draw, four defeats), but are not in third place in the table for nothing. The SGE have had a strong first half of the season so far and have now had three weeks to get back on track. Considering that the eagles have rarely shown any weakness against newly promoted teams and have not been beaten in their last twelve Bundesliga games against teams that were still in the second division last season (nine wins, three draws), a win at the Millerntor Stadium in Hamburg is absolutely realistic.

Although a goal festival is not to be expected given the compact FCSP defense. But at the end of the day, we believe that it will be enough for Eintracht, who have also won the last two Bundesliga games against the Kiezkicker.