Will the foals once again trip up the record champions?

The first Saturday evening game in the Bundesliga after the winter break is a real classic. This is the 113th time that Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Bayern have faced each other in the German top flight. Especially in recent years, the Foals have emerged as the record champions’ bogey team. The team from the Lower Rhine region has won three of their last five Bundesliga home games against Munich.

Since this is a Bundesliga matchday 16 encounter and Kompany’s team has a four-point lead over Bayer Leverkusen before the restart, a win at Borussia Park would definitely be enough to wrap up the “winter championship” ahead of time. This is important to know in that FCB were able to lift the championship trophy in 23 of 26 cases after winning the unofficial first round title. Nevertheless, there are some factors that definitely need to be considered when looking at the Gladbach vs. Bayern forecast for Saturday.

For example, the team from the Lower Rhine region has also had an absolutely solid season so far and is also the fourth-best home team in the league. In the role of the underdog, the protégés of coach Gerardo Seoane should also feel very comfortable. In any case, the pressure is on the star ensemble from the Isar, whose last away win in the league was over two months ago.

However, the bookmakers now believe that this mini-dry spell will come to an end and are offering significantly lower odds on the front-runner’s win ahead of the duel between Gladbach and Bayern. At the top, the NEO.bet app is offering just 1.43 on Munich’s success.

Gladbach vs. Bayern forecast AI

According to the AI lady “BETSiE”, the game between Freiburg and Kiel at the weekend is the only game in which there is a more one-sided starting position than between Gladbach and Bayern. At least that is underlined by the xG values of the artificial intelligence, which amount to 0.93 and 2.31, respectively, and thus result in a difference of 1.38 goals. “BETSiE” thus even tends towards a handicap bet in favor of the front-runner. The Gladbach vs. Bayern AI prediction is targeting the Asian handicap (-1.25), which can be played at 1.80 at Bet365.

Gladbach – Statistics & current form

Borussia Mönchengladbach have finally settled down after a turbulent pre-season. This undoubtedly positive sign is primarily due to the vastly improved transfer policy in the summer and, in the second step, to the satisfactory performance of the team. 24 points after 15 match days is the best haul since 2020/21, which is even allowing the fans of the Foals to dream quietly of a return to the international business. No wonder, because they are currently only three points behind third place in the table.

Gladbach know how to beat Bayern at home

The team from the Lower Rhine not only remained unbeaten (2-1-0) during the three match days before Christmas, but thanks to their successes against Holstein Kiel (4-1) and at TSG Hoffenheim (2-1), they were able to win two Bundesliga games in a row for the first time since March 2022 (!). The former German champions also finally got rid of the particularly painful and much-mocked tag they had carried around with them for almost three years. The outlook for the rest of the season is absolutely promising after only one defeat in the last nine league matches.

Especially, of course, if Seoane’s troops manage to maintain their home strength. With Dortmund, Bayern and Leverkusen, only three teams have so far collected more points at home than the team from the Lower Rhine region. They have won all 16 points in their last six home games. The traditional club has not been beaten at Borussia Park since mid-September.

If you think the home team can get a point against the league leaders, LeoVegas offers odds of 2.90 for the double chance 1X before the Gladbach vs. Bayern encounter. Meanwhile, the LeoVegas welcome bonus promises an automatic doubling of the first deposit of up to €100. Given the history, even a home win cannot be ruled out, especially since the foals have won five of their last nine Bundesliga home games against the record champions. Since the start of the 2015/16 season, no other team has celebrated more home wins against FCB than the foals.

Bayern – Statistics & current form

Bayern have been looking impressive again before the Bundesliga’s restart. Although test matches during the winter break are not particularly meaningful, Munich left a very well-rested and enthusiastic impression in their 6-0 win over Champions League participants RB Salzburg. The break from matches seems to have had a positive effect. The professionals have recharged their batteries and are ready to tackle the ambitious goals for the season.

In any case, according to the odds for the 2024/25 season, the men from Säbener Straße remain the clear favorites for the trophy. At Bet365, for example, only an infinitesimally low 1.11 is offered for FCB to win the title.

Bayern want to set an example at the start of the year

Despite the really good season so far and the very dominant style of play, which is reflected in an average possession share of 72% and 290 (!) shots on goal, coach Vincent Kompany’s team is not immune to failures either. The last away game in Mainz ended in a 1:2 loss and even the 1:1 draw in Dortmund was rather flattering for the league leaders. This is one of the reasons why I consciously refrain from discussing the betting odds for handicap betting between Gladbach and Bayern.

Instead, it seems more sensible to go with over-betting. On the one hand, because 47 goals have already been scored after 15 match days. On the other hand, however, because Munich have only been able to keep a clean sheet in three of eight away games this season and have conceded nine of the only 13 goals they have conceded away from home.

The hosts from Mönchengladbach are therefore definitely capable of scoring, especially since Kompany will have to do without the suspended Upamecano. Only once this league season has the central defense not consisted of the Upamecano/Kim duo, and promptly conceded the kickers from the Isar in the 1:2 in Mainz a bust. Nevertheless, the fresh and fully recovered offense should definitely be able to capitalize on the qualitative advantages. In particular, the Gladbach vs. Bayern top odds of 2.62 in the Bet365 app on a goal from Musiala, who already has 19 goals in 22 competitive games, promise value, even though the Germany international has never scored in six games against the upcoming opponents from the Rhineland.

Gladbach – Bayern Direct comparison / H2H record

Borussia Mönchengladbach have beaten FC Bayern in the Bundesliga 28 times. They have achieved 23 of these 28 successes at home. The team from the Lower Rhine region has won five of the last nine Bundesliga home games and three of the last five meetings in their own stadium against the Munich team. In the previous season, however, FCB had the upper hand twice. In the Borussia Park with 2:1, at home with 3:1. Also exciting: In ten of the last eleven meetings, both teams were always able to score at least once. Five of the most recent six Bayern successes against Borussia also included conceding a goal.

Gladbach – Bayern Tip

Saturday evenings in the Bundesliga have not been particularly successful for Gladbach recently. Borussia have not won any of their last twelve league duels on Saturday (0-5-7). The probability that this series will continue is quite high, because the foals are also the clear outsiders before the match at the start of the year against FC Bayern. However, after only one defeat in their last nine league games and 16 points from their last six Bundesliga home games, the team from the Lower Rhine should not be underestimated.

It should also be noted that Munich will have to do without the suspended Upamecano and have not won their last two away games in the top flight. Nevertheless, I believe that the Kompany XI will come out with renewed energy and a desire to play after the break. I therefore expect a guest three, but it will take hard work to achieve that.

In my opinion, it is therefore profitable to place a bet between Gladbach and Bayern on the favorites’ victory with goals from both teams. At NEO.bet, the highest odds are 2.38, which I play with four units as a stake.