Will BVB get revenge for the lost CL final?

It has been almost five months since Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund faced each other in the 2024 Champions League final. The black and yellow team put in a furious first half at Wembley Stadium in London and had several chances to take a 1-0 lead. However, with luck and skill, the royals extricated themselves from the unfortunate situation and, thanks to late goals from Dani Carvajal and Vini Jr., once again crowned themselves the best club team in Europe. In the rematch on Tuesday evening, the tip for the title between Real Madrid and Dortmund is again significantly lower.

The assessment of the betting providers with a German license is hardly surprising, especially since the Estadio Santiago de Bernabeu is not a good place for black and yellow in historical terms. In fact, no club has ever played in the premier league in a stadium more often without winning even once than BVB in the venerable football temple in the Spanish capital. In seven attempts, there were five defeats! In the context of the 3rd matchday in the new CL league phase, a prediction for Borussia before the match between Real Madrid and Dortmund is once again not a promising approach in our eyes.

And that despite the fact that Nuri Sahin’s team is traveling to the European champions’ country as the leaders in the most important European club competition. Despite two wins and ten goals scored in the first two games, the galacticos are now a completely different caliber, which the Real Madrid vs. Dortmund odds on the three-way market also impressively underline.

Real Madrid – Statistics & current form

The current standings of the recently expanded 36-club Champions League will not please the Real Madrid management at all. Currently in 17th place, the Whites would have to play two more playoff games in the new year to reach the last 16. Although the standings after two of a total of eight matchdays in this preliminary round are of course of little relevance, the 1-0 defeat three weeks ago in Lille led to unhappy faces in the Spanish champions’ camp. For the first time after 14 (!) CL games in a row, the “white ballet” left the field as a loser in the premier class.

Real continues to rely on the highlights of its individualists

In general, it currently appears as if Carlo Ancelotti’s team is still far from its best form. Brilliant successes have been the exception rather than the rule in the season so far. Nevertheless, it is of course complaining at a high level, because after ten matchdays in La Liga, the Royal remain unbeaten (7-3-0) and have their sights set on leaders Barcelona. But before it finally comes to “El Clásico” next weekend, the starting position in the Champions League must be improved.

The individual quality of the hosts speaks in their favor. An offensive line-up with Bellingham, Vini Jr. Rodrygo and Mbappé is capable of making the difference in every game. This was also recognized by VfB Stuttgart on the first matchday. Despite a good first half, in which the Swabians missed high-profile chances, Ancelotti’s team ultimately got the better of them, winning 3-1. If you are expecting at least four goals in the game on Tuesday evening, you will find odds of around 2.10 for Over 3.5 at Betano between Real Madrid and Dortmund. It may be worth using the Betano free bet.

It is also clear that the defense has by no means gained in stability after the serious injury to Dani Carvajal. Only in every third competitive game this season have the Galactics been able to keep their clean sheets. We therefore consider goals from both teams to be highly likely during the week. Coupled with the expected home win, a 2.55 beckons for this combined bet.

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

When it comes to Borussia Dortmund, there is a poor relationship between aspiration and reality in the season so far. On the first seven matchdays, the black and yellow had already lost three times. In Stuttgart, there was a hail of criticism after the defeat at Union Berlin, and the goal-less draw in Bremen at the end of August also angered the ambitious BVB management, who thus only see their team in seventh place in the table.

BVB needs a good balance in Madrid

The story is quite different in the Champions League, where the start could hardly have been more positive. While the 3-0 away win in Bruges could still be categorized as “luck of the game”, Sahin’s team impressed across the board in the first home game with a 7-1 win over Celtic Glasgow. However, since both teams are to be classified in the lowest league in this phase of the premier class, it is almost impossible to overestimate the current league lead.

Especially considering that the black and yellows have to play away on Tuesday. As a reminder, Guirassy and Co. have not won in any of their three Bundesliga away games. They have also conceded a total of seven goals. Nevertheless, we believe that the CL finalist is capable of scoring at the Bernabeu. The main goal must be to exploit the almost obligatory sluggishness and lethargy of the Royal Family in the first 45 minutes and perhaps take an early lead.
It will be interesting to see which approach Nuri Sahin will choose. Actually, the former professional, who was once also under contract with Real Madrid, stands for possession-oriented football with a lot of control in positional play. However, since BVB has recently had huge problems with the rest defense and Real Madrid’s attackers are predestined to succeed in the transition game, a more wait-and-see approach seems more sensible. Nevertheless, our Real Madrid vs. Dortmund prediction is for a relatively highlight-rich first half with two or more goals.

Real Madrid – Dortmund Direct comparison / H2H record

The clubs have already faced each other 15 times in a competitive game. All these encounters took place in the UEFA Champions League. With seven wins, five draws and three defeats, Real Madrid have a clear lead. At home, the Whites have not even conceded a single goal in seven matches (5-2-0). The last direct duel was on June 1, when the Madrilenians won 2-0 in the CL final at Wembley and were able to raise the trophy to the sky.

Real Madrid – Dortmund Tip

While the Galacticos have a strong record against BVB, Real coach Ancelotti’s record against Borussia is not quite as good. In seven Champions League games against Dortmund, Ancelotti’s wins (four) and defeats (three) have alternated with beautiful regularity. According to the law of averages, Tuesday evening would be another bust…

However, the betting odds between Real Madrid and Dortmund are clearly in favor of the Spaniards, who, thanks to their individual quality, even have the ability to win games in which they play weaker than their opponents. The AI, our “Betting Basis-BETSiE”, takes the same line and has even calculated an even higher probability of victory for the Galacticos than the bookmakers. Because the black and yellows have hardly got a leg to the ground away from home so far and the opening successes against Bruges and Celtic Glasgow should not be overrated, anything other than a home win would be a surprise.

However, since the odds on a home win in the three-way market do not offer any value, our betting tip for the game between Real Madrid and Dortmund is that at least two goals will be scored in the first 45 minutes. Real Madrid are known to take things a little easier in the first half. After scoring ten goals in two CL games, BVB have what it takes to exploit the home side’s weaknesses. Nevertheless, Mbappé, Vini Jr. and Co. are always good for goals.