Will Bayern be rewarded for their next dominant performance?

For many years, FC Bayern’s aim was to provide the basic personnel for the German national team. However, after Munich almost inevitably followed the trend towards internationalization, VfB Stuttgart, of all clubs, has stepped into the breach. No fewer than six players from the runners-up played for the DFB team in the Nations League in October. Undav and Leweling even scored the goals that earned the European Championship quarter-finalists maximum points. The recently ended international break also plays a not insignificant role for the Bayern vs. VfB Stuttgart tip on Saturday evening.

In terms of the table, Munich go into the game as favorites. The record champions currently lead the standings with 14 out of a possible 18 points, but have recently been without a win in three consecutive competitive games.

Although the hosts could go without a win for the first time since April 2023 (!) in four matches across all competitions, the Bayern vs. VfB Stuttgart odds on the three-way market are hard to beat in terms of one-sidedness. At the top, a 1.39 is offered for the home win.

Bayern vs. VfB Stuttgart prediction AI

Based on a lot of data, the AI named “BETSiE” has given a 76% probability of victory in favor of Bayern. This means that the supercomputer is leaning even further out of the window than the betting providers, who are in the range of 71-73%. The predicted goals also paint a clear picture. With values of 2.86 to 0.93, the AI prediction between Bayern and VfB Stuttgart even aims for a handicap home win (-1).

Bayern – Statistics & current form

It is quite curious how the (former) leaders of Bayern are trying hard these days to talk coach Vincent Kompany up and to shower him with praise. It is true that the Belgian has indeed managed to implement a new game idea within a few weeks. Nevertheless, the very bold, courageous and sometimes even somewhat naive approach is far from being immune to mistakes.

In particular, simple turnovers, a much too risky defense, and poor finishing have recently led to the fact that Munich, who got off to a strong start, have not left the field as winners in three consecutive competitive games. In the draws against Leverkusen and Frankfurt, they missed out on big points in the Bundesliga, and they also suffered a last-minute defeat at Aston Villa.

Bayern’s dominance with the ball is stifling

A total of seven goals were conceded in the first six Bundesliga matchdays. In total, well over four goals were scored on average in league matches involving FCB. That’s reason enough to consider the odds for over-goals between Bayern and VfB Stuttgart. A combination of the favorites’ victory with goals in both halves, for example, would yield 1.70 and could also be played with the free bet from Betano to reduce risk. Betting on HT1/FT1 is also an interesting proposition, as the record champions were already ahead at half-time in all six competitive matches this season.

In general, we consider a victory for Kompany’s team to be the most realistic scenario in this clash. On the one hand, because the men from Säbener Straße have the highest xG value in the league so far. On the other hand, due to the outstanding individual quality in attack. Although Jamal Musiala is expected to continue to be out, Michael Olise is in impressive form. The left-footer has been a real difference-maker so far and is therefore an absolute contender to score on Saturday night. At Winamax, we found a 2.90 for an Olise goal.

VfB Stuttgart – Statistics & current form

Sebastian Hoeneß has been in charge of VfB Stuttgart for about a year and a half. During this time, the former youth coach of FCB has formed a great collective that has developed from a relegation candidate to a runner-up. However, as is well known, sporting success also has a downside, because in addition to other clubs coveting the team, the pressure on the team itself automatically increases.

Almost a dozen VfB professionals were with their national teams last week and some of them played twice. Because the Hoeneß team had to play in the Champions League before and the players therefore currently have to perform at their best in the rather unusual three-day rhythm, the pendulum on Saturday evening as part of the 7th matchday in the Bundesliga is more likely to swing in favor of the home side, whose central axis has proven over the years that the multiple burdens no longer pose a particular difficulty.

Stuttgart’s offensive football comes at the expense of their own defense

To make matters worse, the Swabians are still far from performing at the level of the previous season. They have only won two out of six Bundesliga games. With nine points, they are currently only in eighth place in the interim ranking. Nevertheless, the 15 goals scored, seven of which were from set pieces, are still an impressive figure, which is why a Bayern vs. VfB Stuttgart over-goals forecast should definitely be considered. We also consider both teams to be very likely to score.

Especially considering that the defense continues to look vulnerable and unstable. In the back three in front of keeper Alexander Nübel, changes have had to be made again and again recently. Players like Chabot, Chase or Rouault also lack the necessary experience at the top Bundesliga level. Minor mistakes, a lack of concentration and a whopping eleven goals conceded are the consequence. Against the strong FCB offense, the VfB defense could therefore once again reach its limits.

Bayern – VfB Stuttgart head-to-head record

69 of the 110 Bundesliga matches between the two have been won by FC Bayern against VfB Stuttgart. However, the last encounter ended with a 3-1 home win for Stuttgart, who were able to win two consecutive Bundesliga matches against the record champions for the first time since 2007. However, Munich have also won nine of their last twelve Bundesliga home games against the Swabians (9-2-1). What’s more, the over 2.5 has been cracked eleven times in a row. But it’s unlikely to be a low-scoring affair again on Saturday evening.

Bayern – VfB Stuttgart Tip

Still unbeaten and with 14 points from six games, Bayern are currently leading the way in the Bundesliga. Despite two Bundesliga draws in a row and a total of three consecutive games without a win, Kompany’s team go into the weekend as the hot favorites at home against the reigning vice-champions from Swabia. If we look at the betting odds in the three-way market between Bayern and VfB Stuttgart, we still can’t really see any value in a home win.

We therefore have to look for an alternative market and see good chances for Munich to land a start-finish victory in the Allianz Arena on Saturday. On the one hand, because all six competitive victories so far have been accompanied by a half-time lead. On the other hand, due to the very vulnerable VfB defense, which will probably not be able to withstand the immense pressure of the FCB offense for 45 minutes.