Underscores Uruguay’s great development?

With his biting attack at the 2014 World Cup, Luis Suarez once caused one of the most curious incidents in soccer history. However, the 37-year-old, who is now under contract with Inter Miami in the MLS and has a close friendship with Lionel Messi, also shaped a successful era for the Uruguayan national team.

This will come to an end on Friday night, when Suarez will play his last official international match for his country. Naturally, the “enfant terrible” will be hoping for a commanding victory at the end. In fact, between Uruguay and Paraguay, a tip on the Celeste seems to be under good auspices

The impressions gained so far in the South American World Cup qualifiers alone provide enough arguments to make a prediction in favor of the home team ahead of Uruguay’s clash against Paraguay. While head coach Marcelo Bielsa’s team have 13 out of a possible 18 points after six games, the visitors have just five points

Because the teams presented two completely different sides at the Copa America in the summer of 2024, there can only be one clear favorite in the Estadio Centenario in Montevideo on Friday night. This assessment of the odds is in line with the Uruguay vs Paraguay betting odds advertised on the three-way market. No bookmaker is offering odds of over 1.55 on a home win, not even Bet-at-Home, one of the providers with a German license. However, Bet-at-Home offers a very lucrative deposit bonus for new customers.

Uruguay – Statistics & current form

Since Marcelo Bielsa has been in charge of the Uruguayan national team, many things have changed for the better. In 15 international matches under his leadership, the Celeste have celebrated eleven victories and conceded just three defeats. The Urus also impressed at the Copa America in the summer. After a strong group stage with three wins in three games and 9:1 goals, the former world champions eliminated the Brazilians in the quarter-finals. Despite their superiority against Colombia (0:1), it was only in the preliminary round that the team reached the end. At least they were able to win the small final against Canada afterwards

Bielsa has given the Urus an identity

While the Sky Blues fulfilled all expectations in sporting terms and, after a few years of upheaval, finally have an absolutely powerful team at their disposal again, there was also some disruptive fire. First and foremost, there were the riots after the semi-final defeat to Colombia, which definitely had an impact on the Uruguay vs Paraguay prediction for the weekend. With Darwin Nunez, Rodrigo Bentancur, Ronald Araujo, Jose Maria Gimenez and Mathias Olivera all suspended, five potential regulars and key players will be missing.

The fact that the Celeste are still the clear favorites in Montevideo is primarily due to the fact that Bielsa’s team has been convincing in the six matchdays of the South American World Cup qualifiers. 13 points is already quite a tally in view of the enormous power density. However, the 13 goals scored is the best figure of all ten teams. On average, Luis Suarez and Co. score more than twice per game – an outstanding figure by South American standards!

While the world number eleven has defined itself for many years through its own physicality and strength in tackles, coupled with individual quality, we are currently talking about a functioning collective with a clear signature that should win at home against Paraguay under normal circumstances. A handicap bet is also worth considering, as is a possible goal from Luis Suarez, who all fans in attendance would naturally like to see score in his last international match. Odds of 2.37 are on offer for a Suarez goal between Uruguay and Paraguay in the Bet365 app.

Predicted line-up for Uruguay:
Rochet – Nandez, Caceres, Bueno, Saracchi – Valverde, Ugarte – Pellistri, Torres, Araujo – Suarez

Paraguay – Statistics & current form

While Uruguay, as described, made a really good impression at the Copa America, the exact opposite must be said of Paraguay. In a group with Colombia, Brazil and Costa Rica, the Red, White and Blues failed to make an impression at all and were eliminated with three defeats and a 3:8 scoreline. As a result, Daniel Garnero was relieved of his duties as national coach. His successor is Gustavo Alfaro, a 62-year-old Argentinian who has already coached the Ecuador and Costa Rica teams

Paraguay with only one goal in six qualifying matches

In the away match in Montevideo, Alfaro will make his debut as Paraguay’s national coach. It remains to be seen whether he has been able to make the right adjustments in the few sessions leading up to this match and whether the first changes will bear fruit. We are generally rather skeptical in this regard and can therefore fully understand that the betting odds for a home win between Uruguay and Paraguay imply an odds of 63%.

Incidentally, the performances in the CONMEBOL qualifiers also support this. The “Albirroja”, who last qualified for a World Cup final round in 2010 and are therefore undoubtedly not in the top tier at continental level, have just five points to their name after six matchdays. In fact, only one goal has been scored. However, the defensive output is impressive with only three goals conceded.

After conceding so many goals at the Copa America and the aforementioned change of coach, a focused defensive performance will also be a top priority at the Estadio Centenario. It is quite possible that this will be at the expense of the already harmless offense. In our eyes, a “to-nil” win for the favorites is just as realistic as a handicap victory for the Celeste. Nevertheless, the underdogs should not be completely underestimated with players such as Enciso, Almiron, Sosa and Sanabria earning their money in the top European leagues.

Predicted line-up for Paraguay:
Morinigo – Velazquez, Balbuena, Alderete, Espinoza – Villasanti, Bobadilla – Almiron, Enciso, Sosa – Sanabria

Uruguay – Paraguay head-to-head / H2H result

77 meetings between these teams to date. Uruguay have left the pitch victorious 33 times. This compares to 19 draws and 25 wins for Paraguay. Uruguay’s last home defeat in South American World Cup qualifying against Paraguay was over 20 years ago. The Celeste have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings

Uruguay – Paraguay betting tip

The match between Uruguay and Paraguay has quite different omens. The Urus have regained their former strength under “El Loco”, Marcelo Bielsa, and are clearly favored despite many suspensions on Friday night in Montevideo. After strong performances at the Copa America and in the course of qualifying so far, hardly anyone doubts that the Celeste will live up to their role as favorites in front of their home crowd.

The last-minute change of coach for the visitors does nothing to change this. Although Gustavo Alfaro has proven with Costa Rica and Ecuador that he can shape and develop teams, we do not expect any fundamental improvement from the “Albirroja”, who have only scored one goal in six qualifying matches and went down mercilessly in the Copa America preliminary round, conceding eight (!) goals in three matches.

Although it is often risky to play handicap bets in South America, we tend to bet that Uruguay and Paraguay will prevail by at least two goals. At Bet-at-Home, an attractive 2.60 can be dusted off at the top