Can Qarabag still pull off a sensation?

On Wednesday, FK Qarabag will face NK Dinamo Zagreb in the second leg of the fourth round of Champions League qualifying. Since the Croatians won the first leg 3:0, it already seems clear which of the two clubs will take part in the top flight. But why our Qarabag vs Dinamo Zagreb prediction could still be very interesting, we will now explain in more detail

The bookmakers think that a home win between Qarabag and Dinamo Zagreb is realistic. One possible reason is, of course, the result, as the visitors could get a little sloppy with a three-goal lead. In addition, the home side were dangerous in the first leg and created a total of three great chances. In addition, Gurban Gurbanov’s team must increase their own risk in order to have a chance of reaching the group stage in the CL after all

However, we do not believe that the Croatians will let the butter be taken off their bread in the second leg and expect a concentrated performance from the visiting team. What’s more, the visitors are on a completely different level in terms of play. This is also reflected in the squad analysis, as while the home side have a squad value of just 19 million euros, Dinamo have 73 million euros. Nevertheless, the betting odds for goals from both teams between Qarabag and Dinamo Zagreb are interesting. To get the maximum profit out of this bet, it’s worth taking a look at Intertops and the new welcome bonus

Qarabag – Statistics & current form

Qarabag became Azerbaijani champions last season and were able to secure their place in the CL qualifiers as a result. Gurban Gurbanov’s team then defeated Gibraltar champions Lincoln Red Imps 7:0 in the first round and went on to eliminate Bulgarian title holders Ludogorets Razgrad 8:4. However, the result was somewhat deceptive, as the score was still 4:4 after 180 minutes.

The Azerbaijani representative was pushed to its limits against the Bulgarians and only prevailed in extra time in the end. As a result, the hosts were also underdogs ahead of their clash against Dinamo Zagreb. After the 0:3 in the first leg, the division of roles seems to have been confirmed for the time being. However, the result was a little too clear and did not reflect the course of the game in the best possible way. Will Qarabag therefore still manage the turnaround?

Failed dress rehearsal

We say no, because the home side failed their dress rehearsal against Turan Tovuz at the weekend. The team lost 1-0 to the sixth-placed team of the pre-season and went the entire 90 minutes without a single shot on goal. In addition, their opponents had an xG value of 2.23 and even missed a penalty. The defeat was therefore fully deserved. Since Dinamo Zagreb are a completely different team, their journey in the Champions League qualifiers will probably come to an end

Qarabag with a deadlock

With 22 goals in eight competitive matches (Ø 2.75), the offense seems to be unstoppable. However, if we subtract the four goals scored in extra time against Ludogorets Razgrad, the value is “only” 2.25. Nevertheless, the attacking line is at a high level and has therefore only failed to score twice. We therefore find it hard to imagine that Qarabag will go without scoring against Dinamo Zagreb for only the third time in a row.

The defense is a little more worrying, as the home side have conceded at least one goal in 62% of their matches, with just three white vests in eight games. In addition, Gurban Gurbanov’s team conceded seven big chances in the first leg against Zagreb. As a result, the Azerbaijanis were well served by conceding three goals.

Predicted Qarabag line-up:
Buntic – Silva, Mustafazada, Medina, Cafarquliyev – Romao, P. Andrade, L. Andrade, Benzia, Zoubir – Vieira

Dinamo Zagreb – Statistics & current form

Dinamo Zagreb were already seeded for the fourth round of the Champions League qualifiers as the reigning Croatian champions. As a result, the Croatians were already clearly favored ahead of their first clash against FK Qarabag and absolutely lived up to their billing. Sergej Jakirovic’s team won 3:0 in commanding fashion and even missed four more great chances.

On the other hand, the team also conceded three great chances, meaning that Qarabag will not be completely without a chance in the second leg. Conceding an early goal could cause the visiting team further problems and is something that must be avoided at all costs. However, we are confident that the Croatians will keep a cool head and secure their place in the top flight. Even if they fall behind, the team should be experienced enough to avoid a collapse

Dinamo Zagreb on a winning streak

In addition, Dinamo Zagreb have won all five competitive matches so far this season and have been unstoppable so far. Furthermore, the Croatian record champions have not been brought to the brink of defeat in a single match. It therefore seems almost impossible that Qarabag can win this match, let alone win by three goals to one. We are therefore certain that the visitors will progress to the group stage of the Champions League on Wednesday

Dinamo Zagreb without weaknesses

With 15 goals in the first five competitive matches (Ø 3.00), the visitors’ offense is in top form. In addition, Sergej Jakirovic’s team have yet to score a single goal of their own. In fact, Dinamo Zagreb have scored at least twice in all of their matches. It therefore seems almost certain that the visiting team will score on Wednesday.

In addition to the offense, the Croatian defense was also convincing. Zagreb did not concede a goal in three of their five games, keeping a clean sheet in 60% of their competitive matches. With a total of just two goals conceded, it seems very unlikely that they will be eliminated from the Champions League qualifiers. Qarabag need at least three goals to save themselves in extra time and will therefore need a miracle.

Predicted line-up of Dinamo Zagreb:
Nevistic – Bernauer, Theophile-Catherine, Mmaee, Pierre-Gabriel – Misic, Pjaca, Sucic, Baturina, Hoxha – Petkovic

Qarabag – Dinamo Zagreb head-to-head / H2H result

The direct comparison is quickly summarized, as the two teams have only met once before. The Croatians won the first leg 3:0 and therefore already have one foot in the group stage of the CL. Nevertheless, the two teams were on an equal footing, which is why we expect an evenly-matched game in the second leg. Nevertheless, we can’t understand why the Qarabag vs Dinamo Zagreb odds favor a home win

Qarabag – Dinamo Zagreb betting tip

We recommend betting on “both teams score – yes” between Qarabag and Dinamo Zagreb. The home side will have to give their all in the second leg and need at least three goals to reach extra time. In addition, Gurbanov’s team will have to take full risks sooner or later and open up at the back. Chances on both sides should therefore not be in short supply

Alternatively, you can also place a bet for over 2.5 goals between Qarabag and Dinamo Zagreb on your betting slip. This recommendation is based on the facts of our main bet and is therefore only the logical consequence of our detailed analysis