Who will secure the first three points of the new season?

On Friday, 16.08.2024, the Premier League will finally kick off the new season. After almost three months without first-class English soccer, Manchester United and Fulham FC open the 2024/25 season. The roles seem to be quite clear ahead of this clash, because while the Red Devils will be fighting for the international places, the Cottages should prioritize staying in the league. Therefore, the Manchester United vs. Fulham odds also clearly favor a home win

Even at the start of the season, however, the odds can be somewhat deceptive. Some top teams, such as the Red Devils, may not yet be in rhythm or have not been able to achieve the desired results in preparation.

The home side also have three serious injuries to contend with in Hojlund, Yoro and Malacia. Whether the betting odds should therefore be a little closer between Manchester United and Fulham?

In our search for as much value as possible, we have found it in the handicap betting this time. We recommend a draw between Manchester United and Fulham with a handicap of -1 for the Red Devils. The reason for this is quite simple, as in four of the last five matches the game has been won by a one-goal lead. Especially at the start of the season, we expect a strong fight from the underdog and therefore expect a narrow victory

Kick-off for this match is at 21:00 on Friday at Old Trafford in Manchester. The match can be watched live and in full on Sky and Wow.

Manchester United – Statistics & current form

Manchester United can look back on a rather mixed season. Erik ten Haag’s team finished the Premier League in eighth place and ended up with 31 points fewer than city rivals Manchester City. In the Champions League, things went just as badly, as the team’s journey in the top flight was very short after they were knocked out in the group stage. However, by winning the FA Cup, the Red Devils were still able to secure their place in the European Championship and bring the season to a successful conclusion.

Eventful transfer window

The Red Devils have not had any notable departures so far and have still been able to record revenue of €50 million. However, there is nothing left of the proceeds, as they have already spent €164.5 million on Joshua Zirkzee (€42.5 million), Leny Yoro (€62 million), Matthijs de Ligt (€45 million) and Noussair Mazroui (€15 million). However, the bottom line is that the squad has also improved considerably, which is sure to create anticipation among the club’s own fans

Alejandro Garnacho is now in his third season at Manchester United and was already one of the few constants last season. With 15 goals in 52 games, he was the third-highest scorer in the team behind Bruno Fernandes and Rasmus Hojlund. Many forget that the Argentinian is only 20 years old and therefore still has great development potential. We are certain that the winger can improve even further this year

Too little penetrating power?

With 57 goals in 38 league games (Ø 1.50), the offense was far from a top team. In addition, eight teams found their way into the opposition’s goal more often. In addition, the Red Devils only created 79 major chances, putting them in 14th place in the league.

Even Nottingham, Brentford and Bournemouth were much better in this category. Erik ten Haag’s players therefore definitely need to up their game here

Solid defensive work

In addition to the attacking line, the home side’s defensive line was not really convincing either. Despite conceding 58 goals in 38 games, only four teams conceded fewer goals than the Red Devils. On the other hand, ten Haag’s team only kept a clean sheet nine times, conceding at least one goal in 76% of their league games. It will be interesting to see whether the new additions can change that. However, they won’t be on the pitch against Fulham just yet.

Predicted Manchester United line-up:
Onana – Martinez, Evans, Maguire, Dalot – Mainoo, Casemiro, Rashford, Mount, Fernandes – Zirkzee

Fulham – Statistics & current form

Fulham can look back on last season with much more satisfaction, as Marco Silva’s team were 13th after 38 matchdays. That doesn’t sound particularly good at first, but with 47 points from 38 games, the Cottages had 21 more points than the first team to be relegated. In theory, the Lilywhites were therefore even closer to the international places. However, the primary goal for the coming season remains to stay in the league

Slight downgrade?

With Joao Palhinha (Bayern), Tosin Adarabioyo (Chelsea) and Bobby Decordova-Reid (Leicester City), the Whites lost three very important players in the summer. In return, Ryan Sessegnon, Emile Smith-Rowe and Jorge Cuenca arrived. All in all, Marco Silva’s team lacks an adequate replacement in central midfield. Something definitely needs to be done here, because with the current starting eleven it will be difficult to collect around 47 points again

Emile Smith Rowe never got beyond the role of a rotational player at Arsenal and therefore opted for a move to Fulham FC. The Gunners paid a princely sum for his departure and were able to raise almost 32 million euros. The transfer fee casts a slight shadow over the transfer, as ESR’s market value is only 20 million euros. However, the new signing quickly proved his worth with two goals in the first two test matches

Not to be underestimated offensively

With 55 goals in 38 league games (Ø 1.45), the visiting team’s offense was just as good as Manchester United’s attacking line. The conversion of chances played a particularly important role, as only Luton Town were more efficient with just 35 missed chances. The attack has also received a small upgrade with the addition of Emile Smith Rowe and should therefore continue to provide plenty of goals in the coming season.

While the offense seems to be well prepared for the coming season, the defense worries us a little. Fulham already conceded 61 goals in 38 games in the pre-season (average 1.61) and have now lost two important players in their defense. We are also very unsure whether the new additions will bring the necessary quality to at least maintain the level. If no more transfers follow, we wouldn’t be surprised if the FCF concede even more goals.

Predicted line-up of Fulham:
Leno – Tete, Dio, Bassey, Robinson – Smith Rowe, Lukic, Iwobi, Pereira, Traore – Muniz

Manchester United – Fulham head-to-head comparison / H2H record

In the direct comparison, the home side are unsurprisingly ahead. The home side won 56 of the 88 encounters and lost only 14 games. However, the Cottages deserved to win the last encounter, which is why the visiting team should not be underestimated under any circumstances. However, it was also the Lilywhites’ first win since 2009 and therefore a rarity. For this reason, our prediction between Manchester United and Fulham still goes in the direction of the hosts:

Manchester United – Fulham betting tip

On the first matchday of the new season, a winning bet is reluctantly our No.1 pick. There are far too many question marks after the summer break, which are usually only clarified after the first few weeks. We therefore recommend betting on “both teams to score – yes” between Manchester United and Fulham. This is particularly due to the direct comparison, as the two teams have not given each other anything in the recent past and have often even played at eye level

If you want to bet on a win or draw in this clash, you should of course favor the Red Devils. Erik ten Hag’s team is simply much better in terms of players and individuals and should therefore dominate the match. We also think the home side’s transfers are very promising.